President Trump and the path ahead in the Middle East

Waking up on November 6th, there is no doubt that there were contrasted reactions to President Donald Trump’s sweeping US election victory across the world’s capitals, as he became the first US President since Grover Cleveland to win two non-consecutive terms in office and is set to become the nation’s 47th Commander-in-Chief. One can imagine that there was a discrete sentiment of joy and perhaps even relief at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Jerusalem residence whilst there were most probably scenes of worry in Tehran.

If these reactions show one thing, it is that President-elect Trump and his next administration are expected to adopt a stance which could embolden Jerusalem and threaten Tehran’s regional ambitions to an extent not seen since, well, President Trump’s last term in office when he pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018 and ordered the elimination of IRGC Commander Qassem Soleimeini in 2020. But whilst a Trump White House, as well as a Republican controlled Senate and House, may well advance Netanyahu’s agenda, reality may be slightly more complex, despite the fact that this news from the other side of the Atlantic represents a historic opportunity to reshape the region. Trump’s broad “Peace through Strength” approach and his willingness to go head-to-head with the Mullahs may indeed harm Netanyahu’s short-term interests in Gaza and Southern Lebanon as the President- elect is likely to encourage direct confrontation with Iran instead of pursuing the entirety of their “axis of resistance.” Trump’s zeal for a deal, coupled with his desire to respect his campaign pledge of bringing an end to the Middle Eastern conflagration and his desire to pivot US bandwidth towards the Indo-Pacific, and away from the Near East, may push him to pressure Netanyahu to pursue the head of the snake in Tehran and engage in constructive diplomacy rather than continuing with a war philosophy that may drag the broader conflict on for years. But that strategy, or a similar one, might well pay off. 

Whilst Trump’s foreign policy picks, notably his picks for Secretary of State and Ambassador to the UN, underscore strong support for Israel, his profound “love for deals” may lead him to exert more pressure on Jerusalem. The Gulf states, notably Saudi Arabia, will want to see a definitive end to the globally unpopular wars in Gaza and Southern Lebanon before signing any normalisation deal with Israel and any defence pact with Washington that would officially keep Beijing out of the Middle East. Whilst Presidents Biden and Macron managed to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, resulting in a de facto Israeli victory, Netanyahu has pledged that any infraction of the deal committed by the Iranian proxy north of the Blue Line and the Litani River will result in IDF troops being sent back up to engage Hezbollah forces. Thus far, the ceasefire overseen by the US and France has held despite numerous infractions having been committed on both sides. But Netanyahu may not be able to follow through on his reentry pledge by the time Trump assumes office as the White House tenant will not want his reputation as regional peacemaker to be tarnished. The Israeli Prime Minister seems to be acutely aware of this, as reports indicate that the ceasefire deal was also supposed to serve as a “gift” to Trump. The former and incoming President will instead consider courses of action to be taken against Iran proper rather than going after their proxies, which have already been relentlessly pursued since Oct. 7. This may not be the wrong course of action as Tehran has been sufficiently weakened over the past 14 months, both geopolitically and militarily, for efforts to be concentrated on Iran and its nuclear programme. Honing in on Iran will allow for the second round of the Abraham Accords to be sealed while also allowing President Trump- who enjoys relishing and boasting about successful his peace initiatives whilst President Biden has overseen the outbreak of wars in Ukraine and the broader Middle East- to score a significant domestic political victory, undoubtedly a priority for him personally and the MAGA movement as a whole who claim to be a break from the neoconservative “bureaucratic warmongers.”

The incoming administration should also undoubtedly seek to mediate between Israel and the Gulf States, as they attempt to coordinate efforts focused on countering the numerous short and long-term regional threats that exist today. Seeking to essentially pull-out of the Middle East, Trump and his incoming administration know that a steadfast Arab-Israeli coalition is necessary to fend off the Iranian threat whilst also fending off the Islamic fundamentalist threat in the long-term, as well as making sure that Beijing cannot step in to fill any remaining power vacuum left by the US. Finalising the second round of the Abraham Accords will to no surprise be Washington’s guiding line for the next few years, as only this accord will provide the framework necessary to accomplish the aforementioned goals. Bringing an end to the war in Gaza for instance, while still abiding by the “peace through strength” philosophy, can provide the conditions necessary for a deal to be reached between Israel and Riyadh, potentially pushing Trump to signal his preference for a ceasefire in the Palestinian strip. This could lead to sporadic moments of confrontation between the US and Israeli administrations as their approaches towards trying to rake the Saudis back to the negotiating table may fundamentally diverge; as Trump’s Washington will want to show transactional-styled compromise and influence over Jerusalem, whilst Netanyahu will attempt to continuously show off force, with the implicit message being that Riyadh will inevitably have to normalise relations with the Jewish state. Nonetheless, both sides will concentrate their efforts on reopening discussions. Asides from fending off the Iranian threat, regional actors must now also focus their attention back to the plight of Syria, as the extraordinary and unexpected deposition of the Assad regime may lead to Islamists taking full power in Damascus. Keeping radical forces at bay in the Levant will be a short and long-term necessity, and will have to be taken into consideration even as the struggle against the regime in Tehran continues. With the Russians now forced to pull out from Syria and the Iranians unable to exert their influence on governance there, the US under Trump should and will not seek to entangle themselves in the country’s affairs, and should instead delegate the task of keeping radical elements away from power to a new Arab-Israeli coalition that would come as a result of the Abraham Accords. A strong coalition should and will be able to face the now crippled Iranians, reemerging Islamist forces in the Levant and be resilient and powerful enough to avoid the emergence of a regional power vacuum similar to the one that arose after the two Gulf Wars. The de facto pro- Western coalition’s hegemony should also ensure that revisionists in China are unable to assert their influence on the region. 

The US now has the unprecedented chance to finally pivot away from the region, as the events of 20 years have unfolded in a mere 14 months. US policymakers from ten years ago would be relishing in current events; Tehran’s proxies in Gaza and Lebanon have seen their fighting abilities be decimated by the sheer force of the Israeli military, normalisation negotiations between Israel and the home of Sunni Islam seem to potentially be back on track and the Baathist Assad regime has fallen at the hands of its own people, ousting Moscow from the region in the process. Risks are nonetheless present however, as a break-down of talks regarding normalisation and a refusal to take concrete steps in ensuring that the Mullahs can no longer build up their nuclear might and influence may embolden regional challengers, while the risk of Islamist radicals taking full power in Syria- which itself could lead to the country once again becoming a prime breeding ground for jihadism- after Assad’s demise remains. The next US administration will have to navigate a complex and nuanced strategic landscape in order to ensure that the West’s interests in the Middle East prevail above those of global adversaries. A “peace through strength” approach coupled with flexible, distinctively Trump-esque, diplomacy may well prove to be a viable strategy which can accomplish that momentous task for the four years ahead and even beyond- a strategy that may well Make the Middle East Great Again.