The Biggest Losers

An analysis by Dr. Michael Milstein (Ynet) recently highlighted how a Trump-brokered agreement has inadvertently inspired optimism within Hezbollah. Strengthened by a reality shaping up in their favor, Hezbollah has made its position clear: Israel must withdraw completely, with no freedom of action, and has vowed that the next generation will realize its vision of conquering the Galilee.

It is both astonishing and horrifying how, together and separately, Netanyahu and Trump have snatched total defeat from the jaws of a seeming semi-victory.

I have long maintained that Binyamin Netanyahu is the most dangerous person in Israel today. Unfortunately, he has worked tirelessly to prove me right.

Despite the many grudges Donald Trump holds against him, Netanyahu long cultivated the “BFF” relationship he believed would propel him into another term as prime minister. The political magician learned many of his autocratic tricks while licking the boots of the political neophyte Trump.

Before Trump’s first term, Netanyahu would push the envelope as far as he could until blocked or stopped. Trump taught him to ignore the envelope entirely – to commit as many wrong, unethical, and illegal acts in tandem as possible, ensuring the opposition would never have the time, resources, or field of vision to track and contest them all. They might catch some, but never enough.

Netanyahu followed in his BFF’s footsteps with complete subservience. How could anything go wrong? He never anticipated Trump reviving old grudges, cursing him publicly and privately, forcing him into deals he had sworn against, an – worst of all – growing tired of his wars. That exhaustion led Trump to cut deals without Israeli input, placing the country in worse positions than before the conflicts began. In his subservience, Netanyahu did what no other Israeli prime minister would ever do, even in their worst nightmares: he handed over Israel’s security to an American president, granting him veto power and the ability to decide Israel’s fate without Israel having a voice.

The effectiveness of the IDF’s operations on every front has been decimated – both by the deliberate lack of diplomatic action from Netanyahu’s government and by Netanyahu’s surrender of Israel’s future into the hands of the most unstable, unpredictable, and self-serving U.S. president in modern history. Trump has all but abandoned Israel’s future security, effectively declaring surrender to Iran. His agreements strengthen Iran and its proxies, placing them in positions of power following what had been their moments of greatest weakness.

Strictly for political survival, Netanyahu sold a pie-in-the-sky bill of goods about Trump to the Israeli public. Trump’s early concessions had nothing to do with love for Israel; he viewed Netanyahu as a fellow strongman, and he has an affinity for strongmen. Trump’s geopolitical knowledge and understanding is lower than that of any modern president. Netanyahu understood this well and manipulated him accordingly. He knew Trump’s greatest weakness – his Kryptonite was Obama’s successes and legacy. Netanyahu only had to whisper, “This will be better than Obama,” or “You’ll do what Obama was afraid to do,” and Trump was in his palm.

Convincing Trump to “recognize” Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the U.S. embassy was easy. Obama had said he would do it, then reconsidered—just like his predecessors. I have never understood why foreign “recognition” of Jerusalem mattered. We didn’t need anyone’s permission; we formally declared it our eternal capital. Most foreign embassies remain elsewhere, yet ambassadors still come to the Knesset and the President’s residence, and heads of state still visit the Prime Minister’s residence all in Jerusalem. This was de facto recognition. As for moving the embassy—it was an illusion. The only change was a sign at the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem that now said Embassy of the US instead of Consulate. The ambassador’s residence remains in Herzliya.

Trump’s actions toward Israel are entirely transactional, rooted in self-interest. The “lover of Israel” Trump that Netanyahu sold to the public never existed. Trump has no great love for Jews either; he surrounds himself with Jewish lawyers and business colleagues because they are useful to him. When he speaks of his daughter’s conversion, it is no different from a white person claiming a Black friend.

Now, back to the war fronts.

Trump forced Netanyahu to end fighting in Gaza, with a withdrawal of roughly half the territory and most importantly, the return of all remaining hostages. Since then, Netanyahu has acted to block progress on Trump’s 20-point plan, which includes disarming Hamas, rebuilding Gaza, and eventually establishing a Palestinian state, Netanyahu’s worst nightmare. There was some positive movement until the joint attack and war with Iran. Once that began, no one was looking at Gaza anymore, least of all Trump, leaving Netanyahu free to stall. What has that achieved? Hamas remains the de facto governing body in Gaza, terrorizing Gazans. The IDF is still in 50% of Gaza. Fighting and guerrilla warfare continue. Two million refugees live in inhumane conditions, barely surviving on aid.

In the north, Hezbollah, weakened and widely despised in Lebanon, continues to terrorize northern Israel using cheap fiber-optic drones that the army and air defenses still cannot adequately counter. If not for the U.S. again forcing Netanyahu into a last-minute agreement, we would again be sinking fast into the Lebanese quagmire, having learned nothing from our previous two wars there.

And now to Iran.

There are no rose-colored glasses for describing the Iranian regime and its desire to decimate Israel. Whether they were actively working toward nuclear weapons is less important than their ever-growing ballistic missile program. To this day, no one outside of Iran knows how many ballistic missiles they still have or where they are all located. Latest U.S. intelligence estimates suggest they retain at least 70% of their pre-war stockpile. Is that thousands or tens of thousands? No one knows. What is known is that Iran spent years developing decoys of missile launchers and sites. And their forethought and planning paid off. Both Israel and the U.S. counted successful hits on launchers, but those numbers included decoys. Therefore, no one knows how many launchers and missiles we really destroyed.

Iran also has hundreds of vast tunnels across the country, housing missiles, launchers, and production facilities. Each tunnel runs for miles with multiple openings. Mobile launchers move into position, fire, close the opening, and relocate. No one outside Iran knows where all these tunnels are or how many launchers and missiles they hold.

Finally, Israel and the U.S. focused their attacks on launch sites in western and central-western Iran. Iran is the 17th largest country in the world. We did not touch the center or the east. Anyone with sense knows those areas are also full of missiles, launchers, and tunnels.

Iran successfully hit and damaged every U.S. military base in the region. They hit and damaged every regional country. Iranian Regime leaders were assassinated, only to be replaced by more extreme figures. Yes, Iran sustained major damage, including to nuclear facilities. Yet in the eyes of the regime, they withstood a major war against two of the world’s strongest militaries and emerged intact with major offensive capabilities. They absolutely won this war, and they feel more empowered than ever. This kind of war was their greatest fear—but they survived, thrived, and are now on top of the world.

Donald Trump entered this war with no preparation, no plans, no strategy, only because Netanyahu convinced him to do what “Obama didn’t have the courage to do.” He declared a 60-day ceasefire to reach a final deal. That window will likely be extended multiple times, because no deal will be made in that timeframe. And no deal will ever come close to the Obama/Kerry deal that Trump abandoned. He may hope Iran will capitulate, but why would they? They hold all the cards. They are strong, determined, extreme, and have nothing to lose. They know the overwhelming majority of Americans oppose the war, and that Trump and the Republicans are paying a heavy price in rising oil and living costs. They know Trump, for all his bravado and threats, cannot afford to return to war. This is merely the tip of the iceberg.

The real and most dangerous shift, one most people are still unaware of, is the tectonic realignment of power in the Gulf. Prior to the war, all Gulf states except Qatar saw Iran as the region’s greatest threat. They backed the war and supported the U.S. and Israel. But now, they see the writing on the wall: they all lost, Iran won, and Iran is here to stay. Each Gulf state, individually and collectively, is now looking to align with Iran. They took a major beating from Iranian missiles and drones and realized they cannot depend on Uncle Sam to defend them. They are pragmatists, and their foremost geopolitical concern is staying in power.

Netanyahu dreamed and spoke of a new Middle East and realignments. He thought he could maneuver that realignment in Israel’s favor. Had he been a true statesman and diplomat with the courage to make real change, he would have worked to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That would have been the game-changer, realigning the entire Middle East—starting with Saudi Arabia and followed by the rest of the Arab and Muslim worlds. Instead, he and his BFF Trump have brought about a completely different realignment, one that sidelines both Israel and the U.S. Despite Trump’s billions in personal business interests in the Gulf, the Gulf states see Iran clearly in their direct field of view.

Tremendous damage has been done to the standing of both the U.S. and Israel in the Middle East and globally. Netanyahu and Trump are directly responsible, but neither will ever accept accountability. The biggest losers appear to be Donald Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu, but the real losers are the American and Israeli peoples.