Rising Lion: A Catalyst for Regime Change in Iran?

Iran stands at a perilous crossroads. Recent Israeli airstrikes have decimated key military and nuclear infrastructure, eliminating top generals and scientists, and leaving Tehran reeling. The scale of the Israeli operation, dubbed ‘Operation Rising Lion’, is unprecedented. Mossad agents infiltrated Iranian territory to conduct precision strikes, killing at least 20 senior military figures. Among the dead are Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri—second in command after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami, Deputy Commander-in-Chief Gholamali Rashid, Airspace Unit Leader Amir Ali Hajizadeh, Deputy Intelligence Chief Gholamreza Mehrabi, and Deputy Operations Commander Mehdi Rabbani.

Prominent nuclear scientists were also assassinated, including Fereydoun Abbasi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran; Ali Shamkhani, a senior former navy commander who had been overseeing nuclear talks with the United States; and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji, a physicist and president of the Islamic Azad University in Tehran. Shamkhani, one of Iran’s most influential politicians and a close confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei, was among the most high-profile casualties. Additionally, the Natanz enrichment site—a cornerstone of Iran’s nuclear ambitions—was severely damaged. Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes were largely intercepted, and its capacity to respond appears significantly diminished. Meanwhile, Israel has continued attacking military bases, infrastructure, airports, and even oil refineries across various Iranian provinces. A total of over 79 Iranians have been killed—many of them civilians, including women and children—and more than 320 others have been injured.

The Israeli operation has reignited discussions about a broader objective: regime change in Iran. While Israel justifies the strikes as necessary to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the scope and nature of the attacks suggest a deeper motive. This view aligns with reports of a joint U.S.-Israeli task force working to amplify internal pressures in Iran to encourage regime change. Supporting this notion, Israeli Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that the current moment presents a “window of opportunity” to overthrow the Iranian government. The United States’ implicit support also quietly steering events in that direction.

The U.S. Role

U.S. leadership has worked for decades to neutralize the rule of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Under Donald Trump’s second term, the U.S. has shifted from diplomatic engagement to a more confrontational stance. While publicly advocating for renewed negotiations, the Trump administration has reportedly been aware of Israel’s plans and has offered tacit support for the strikes. This alignment suggests the objective is not just to curb Iran’s nuclear program but to trigger a regime change aligned with Western regional interests.

Iranian Resilience

Iran’s response has been swift. Missile attacks on Israeli targets, including Tel Aviv, demonstrate its capability and willingness to retaliate—despite the overwhelming damage inflicted and a total lack of support from traditional allies or Arab nations. The majority of Iranians support acquiring nuclear power, believing it will make them safer in such a conflict-prone region. And the Israeli attack is seen as a threat to their country’s sovereignty.

Challenges:
Another harsh reality 92.4 million Iranians face a dire shortage of bomb shelters, particularly in Tehran—home to 9.73 million civilians—now a frequent target of Israeli airstrikes. Simultaneously, nationwide frustration is surging, fueled by economic collapse. American Sanctions have already crippled Iran’s economy; Many families survive on shrinking incomes and growing uncertainty. Inflation is rampant, hospitals are short on supplies, and students speak of stolen futures. Now, war has intensified the strain. In a post-war Iran, these pressures will multiply.

Protest and Dissent

The Iranian people have shown the world their courage again and again—during the Green Movement of 2009, the nationwide protests of 2017, and most powerfully, during the Zan, Zendegi, Azadi (Woman, Life, Freedom) movement after the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. Each wave of resistance has been met with bullets, prisons, and censorship—but never full surrender.

In February 2025 alone, over 200 protests erupted nationwide. Participants ranged from retirees demanding better pensions to workers striking over unpaid wages. The oil and petrochemical sectors have been especially active, with workers at key sites like the Abouzar Oilfield and Fajr Jam Gas Refinery staging demonstrations. Even the 46th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution drew rare public criticism.

In May 2025, a massive truckers’ strike swept through more than 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of drivers. Triggered by rising fuel prices and worsening road security, the strike disrupted national supply chains and drew support from major dissidents, including exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi.

The ongoing war may turn these scattered embers into a wildfire. While there is no current indication of a unified movement capable of toppling the regime, whether it can survive this mounting storm remains uncertain.

Another Revolution?

For over four decades, the Islamic Republic—born of Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1979 revolution—has cloaked itself in the language of divine authority, anti-imperialism, and resistance. Iran’s ruling elite have long used the specter of religious sentiment.  Yet many young Iranians—who dance in secret, browse the internet via VPNs, and protest in the streets—are no longer inclined to die for a regime that jails their sisters, beat them for showing a strand of uncovered hair.

Approximately 44.5 million Iranian women live in the country, making up 49.3% of the total population. Since the current regime has been in power for over four decades, numerous reports have documented strict moral policing and human rights violations against women.

The fall of the government would not mean the fall of Iran. Instead, it could mean women reclaiming their place—not behind a veil, but as decision-makers in every sector of the state, achieving freedom of expression and empowerment. It could also mean the release of political prisoners, and the return of Iran’s exiled children—not as strangers, but as builders. Because the soul of Iran does not reside in Qom, but in the hearts of its people.

Regardless of what happens, any change or revolution must arise from the Iranian people themselves—guided by their own conscience, will, and passion—without foreign interference of any kind.