Rockets, Uproar, and Nothing More!

In the past few days, the Islamic regime in Iran has launched several land-based ballistic missiles from across the neighboring Iraq to Syria. What is the reason? The regime claims to have hit “ISIS” in Syria in retaliation for the attack on the IRGC in Ahvaz. ISIS, apparently immediately after the operation of Ahvaz, issued a video which claimed responsibility for the operation.

In this video, ISIS was clad in the appearance of the Revolutionary Guards, and in addition to the correct Arabic pronunciation, its camouflage was complete. They have a distinguished tailor and have imitative teachings from the regime’s military. Of course, they hid guns and emergency equipment in front of the corridors and near the parade area before the operation. If you don’t take it as praise for ISIS, hiding the weapons and then returning to the hiding place and removing the weapons and preparing for the attack were all done in a very professional manner.

What is the meaning of such an accurate operation? We say that it means implacable logistics, and precise, and most importantly, highly systematic calculations of cost and benefit. ISIS has concluded in its calculations that it can kill a number of military targets just for the probable loss of “four suicide bombers”, and also wounded and killed some of the defenseless people. But ISIS’ tour de force was the very attack on the pillar of the regime, in other words, the military arm of the Islamic Republic.

It is here that every Iranian consciously asks, “What is the relationship between launching rockets and terrorism? Does ISIS have an airport in Syria and are busy with bombers ready to fly while they are smoking the hookah? How many light and semi-automatic guns in the ISIS store room or prayer room are introduced as weapons? Are such brutes who trade the severed head of a Basiji for their prisoners not able to calculate the reaction of Tehran’s regime?” And all this happens while the regime itself celebrated the “complete extermination of ISIS” in Iran.

The answer to the above questions is that the Islamic regime in Iran itself knows that it is not prepared to deal with terrorism. If they did not know before, they learned that in Syria. That’s why they sought Putin’s help. But the Iranian regime, instead of fighting terrorism, is threatening the oil-rich countries of the region. The regime knows that the attack on Ahvaz can be whitewashed with several executions among the Iranian people. But what can they do about the oil sanctions? These sanctions will be hundreds of times more devastating than ISIS. After all, this time the regime must drink the “poison chalice” to the last drop.

So the regime fires missiles to show to the countries of the region, especially the Arabs and Israel, that their security is in danger. This is a big risk, but the clergy think, “Hell! Going back to the mosque is much worse!” Moreover, it is unclear whether these missiles will actually work during a full-scale war. In such a situation, the regime’s blind attacks will lead to suicide. Israel and Arabs will pulverize the regime if they want to target it with their advanced missile systems. That’s why the regime is keeps shouting and firing rockets. But what is it going to do next?

About the Author
Fred Saberi is a Swedish political analyst of Iranian origin interested in Middle East affairs.
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