Saudi Arabia, more an enemy than an ally

Saudi Arabia, or more precisely its de facto ruler the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS), has vacillated between making alliances with the more radical Muslim world (Iran, Turkey, Qatar), more moderate Arab countries (e.g., UAE) or normalization with Israel. Perhaps a little bit of background may bring some understading of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the Muslim Holy Land where Mohamed was born and lived and where Mecca, the sacred site of Kaaba is, and Medina where Mohamed was buried. Ibn Saud was the first king and founder of what we call today Saudi Arabia in the beginning of 20th century. The kingdom has been known for its conservative and oppressive type of Wahhabism, the prevalent Sunni branch of Islam until the early 21st century. Women were not allowed to appear in public without a male relative and could not drive. The kingdom was closed to “infidels” for long time, and even today non-Muslims are prohibited from visiting holy sites of Islam in Mecca and Medina. One should not forget that it was the Wahhabi Islamists who planned and executed the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US.

In spite of these differences the US has considered Saudi Arabia to be a valuable ally and partner. The reasons? Cheap and plentiful oil, perceived power of Saudi royal family, its position as a birth site of Islam and its role in the Arab League, and the presence of US bases. After Qatar, Saudi Arabia was designated a major non-NATO ally by Donald Trump just a few weeks ago.

The kingdom only recently started modernizing its infrastructure, economy and education among others and moderating, but never fully or quite convincingly relaxing social rules, particularly between men and women – all of it depending on the whim of the person in power, the Crown Prince MBS. He instituted some easing of rules constricting women and allowed somewhat freer speech expression. though many restrictions in family laws are still in place, e.g., a woman needs the consent of a male guardian to marry. On the other hand, he was shown to be a ruthless and not trustworthy ruler, who is the head of an authoritarian regime. Since his appointment in 2017 he was able to consolidate his power and use against his real, potential or even just imagined enemies, including members of his royal family. The best example is by him ordered the murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a particularly cruel manner at the Saudi embassy in Istanbul in 2018.

MBS himself claims to be an ally of the USA, and is recognized as such. He also considers himself to be a leader of the Muslim world. In spite of this he does not seems to have a consistent vision for Saudi Arabia and the Muslim world. He pivots from time to time from the US to Muslim countries with suppressive regimes – which is basically most of the Middle East. His relationship with Shiite Iran, Saudi’s most dangerous counterpart is particularly volatile, and so is the relationship with United Arab Emirates.

It should not be surprising that the relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel were until recently almost non-existent, or kept under the cover as not to ignite wrath of other Arab countries. In 2023 it appeared that normalization with Israel was around the corner, however, the massacre of October 7 disrupted this trajectory. Perhaps this was one reason behind October 7. Since then, normalization with Israel does not seem to be on the horizon, on the contrary, the gap between these two countries is widening. One if not the prerequisites demanded by Saudi Arabia is the establishment of a Palestinian state, a condition not acceptable by majority of Israelis for obvious reasons.

Why would Israel need to vie for normalization with Saudis, especially, if the Saudi leader is rather inscrutable at the best or perfidious and not trustworthy at the worst. He is fickle, swinging from side to side with the wind. Officially still a great friend of US he is pivoting towards Iran. Why would he want to support the Iranian regime that may be on its last legs? At least that was the story a few days ago. Lat Friday the defense minister of Saudi Arabia encouraged Americans during his official visit in DC to act on their threats calling for change in the regime in Iran.

And why did he turn away from Israel? Because of Palestinians or war in Gaza? I bet because of neither; he doesn’t care about them. Is he afraid of Israel of having a possible transformative influence on Saudi society tired of living in a cage? I do not know, but I do not think that Israel is missing anything but not being best friend of MBS, on the contrary it gives Israel freedom not too be constricted by Saudi unpredictability. I am not sure how Israel would benefit. Though Saudi supplies of oil are immense, the kingdom is financially not in a good position. Israel has a lot to gain from developing natural gas explorations and its export to Egypt and Europe, and can do easily without Saudi’s oil. Though Saudis are able to invest more money into high tech, including AI, Israel is superior in possessing hi-tech and AI talent, and that is missing not just in the kingdom but also in the Gulf States. And perhaps more surprising is that the kingdom, where Mecca and Medina, holy sites for Muslims are located, does not recognize Jerusalem as the Jewish Holy City, that it insists on East Jerusalem to be a capital of Palestine. If MBS is serious about being an impactful leader of the Muslim Sunni world he needs to act like one.