Short term success in the North strengthens the big threat to Israel’s future

Israel may have killed Hassan Nasrallah last night, the leader of Hezbollah for over 30 years. There is no doubt he was a terrorist responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Israelis and deserved to die.
But the assassinations of Hezbollah’s leadership lowers the possibility that Hezbollah will agree to the 1701 resolution, agree to stop firing missiles, move beyond the Litani, and allow the return of the residents of the North to their homes.
What is Israel’s strategy here? Do they believe Hezbollah will surrender? How will its latest actions promote the return of residents to their homes? It does not look as if we have an end game strategy in place.
Hezbollah suffered severe blows that began last week with the explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies, and continued with the assassinations of top leaders and apparently Nasrallah himself. These results are evidence that Israeli intelligence agents were able to deeply infiltrate Hezbollah. Unfortunately, this was not the case with Hamas in Gaza prior to October 7th.
However, despite the damage to Hezbollah, history has shown that terrorist organizations often produce new leaders who are even more extreme than their predecessors. Nasrallah himself replaced Abbas Mousavi as the leader of the organization. Yahya Sinwar also replaced previous Hamas leaders and has caused greater damage than all his predecessors. So there is little reason for celebration. This success is likely short-lived.
The attack on Hezbollah may have weakened it significantly and will make a broad campaign against Israel difficult at this time. But as mentioned, this is likely a short-term setback. It’s possible Israel has won this battle, but Iran, Hezbollah and other factors may be planning a joint attack, perhaps on Rosh Hashanah Eve or another time, to cause maximum damage. They will not sit quietly and accept the situation. And we should keep in mind Iran has yet to responded to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in its territory. It will come.
As stated, the current campaign is only a short-term success. Factors that endanger Israel’s future more than Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqis, Hamas and even Iran are Benjamin Netanyahu and the Messianic extremists who today control all branches of government, ministries, police, interior, finance, etc.
If the current campaign against Hezbollah ends like this without a harsh reaction, Netanyahu will likely go for quick elections and form the next government. This could seal the fate of the State of Israel.

Netanyahu and his partners the messianic extremists who also took over the Likud party (starting with Moshe Feiglin) are endangering Israel’s future by corrupting its institutions for the past 15 years, escalating regional conflicts, alienating allies around the world, and causing economic and social damages that might be impossible to fix.
Economically, we see credit rating downgrades, and most the public still does not understand the catastrophic consequences this will have on their lives – foreign investment drying up, companies closing operations in Israel, higher interest rates, growing deficits and a weaker currency. Add to that the fact that Israel is not pursuing peace with its neighbors, but an ongoing conflict North and South requiring more resources – this is an unfolding disaster that will influence every home.
As Hamas won the battle in the south on October 7th, Israel may have won the current battle in the north. But it’s important to remember this is just one battle. This is the 3rd Lebanon war and we have spent 18 years in Lebanon, without ending the conflict. In the big struggle/ battle aimed at achieving peace and a life without constant threats, alarms and endless security expenses – we are far from a solution.
The implications for the hostages still held by Hamas are terrible. The prospect of a deal has now receded. Netanyahu does not feel the need for a deal, as the success in the Northern front he has feared for years puts him and his partners in a stronger position.
The families of the hostages and anyone concerned should be very worried. The chance of their loved ones returning alive has diminished dramatically.
In conclusion, it is not certain that celebration is warranted at this time with the elimination of Hezbollah’s leadership. This has always been our problem, not thinking and planning years ahead. In the short term, these were certainly dangerous terrorists who deserved their deaths. Looking ahead, Israel’s situation is only worsening and the biggest threats to its future are internal and only gaining strength.