Should Israel nuke Iran’s nuclear program to ensure its long-term survival?

On April 22, 2024, during a press conference in Tehran, the spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Kanaani, asserted that the country’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes, emphasizing that nuclear weapons are not part of Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

At the end of November last year, during the quarterly meeting of the Board of Governors in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) concluded that Iran had dramatically accelerated its uranium enrichment process, reaching 60%, a figure close to the 90% required to produce a nuclear bomb.

Uranium U-235 enriched to 5% is primarily used in commercial nuclear reactors for electricity generation. Between 5% and 20% is used in research reactors, while levels above 20% are exclusively intended for military purposes, such as the propulsion of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines, with 20% being typical for the latter and 90% required for the production of nuclear bombs.

Interestingly, the only countries with nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in the world are the United States and France. Additionally, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Brazil, and Australia are the only nations that possess nuclear-powered submarines.

Iran does not appear on either of these lists, but it could soon become the tenth world power with nuclear weapons, and the second in the Middle East, after Israel, if it manages to enrich its uranium deposits to 90%.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has successfully enriched 274.8 kg of uranium to 60% to date.

After being able to produce between 6 and 9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% per month, Iran increased its production in December 2024, reaching between 35 and 40 kg per month of uranium at the same enrichment level.

Since at least 42 kg of uranium enriched to 90% is required to manufacture a nuclear bomb, this progress suggests that, if Iran continues enriching this uranium to 90%, it could be capable of producing up to six nuclear bombs.

If the Hiroshima bomb required 64 kg of highly enriched uranium to be made, by the end of 2025, Iran could potentially have around 15 nuclear bombs of approximately 10 kilotons, enough to destroy much of Israel.

A nuclear Iran should not only concern the State of Israel, but also all of the West for three fundamental reasons: first, its ability to produce ballistic missiles with greater range; second, its growing aerospace capabilities; and third, the new diplomatic protection it receives from Russia, following the signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Iran and Russia on January 17, 2025, by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian. This agreement aims to strengthen the economic, political, and military alliances between the two countries, thereby amplifying Iran’s influence both in the region and beyond.

According to a report from the Washington Post, Israel intends to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in 2025, more specifically, in the middle of the year.

However, if Israeli intelligence services conclude that Iran is just weeks or even days away from obtaining its first nuclear weapons, Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear program, even during Ramadan or Passover, if it deems it vital for its own survival.

The outcome would be the same: a large-scale conflict in the Middle East, but with only one country (Israel) possessing nuclear weapons, and not two countries that could mutually destroy each other.

In this scenario, Israelis, and by proximity the Palestinians, would be the most vulnerable to nuclear annihilation due to the small territory they inhabit.

To achieve its objective, Israel has already done part of the work by significantly weakening Iran’s air defenses in late October of last year.

The main obstacle to overcome at this moment is the depth at which some key facilities of Iran’s nuclear program are located, including the massive fuel enrichment plant in Natanz, 328 feet (100 meters) underground, and the Fordow plant, carved into a mountain and the second largest after Natanz.

Destroying them would require weaponry capable of penetrating tens of meters of rock and reinforced concrete before detonating.

The most suitable bomb for a mission of such magnitude would be the U.S. GBU-57, a 30,000-pound bomb capable of penetrating about 60 meters of earth before detonating.

With Trump’s arrival at the White House, the United States will sell Israel $3 billion worth of military equipment, which includes various types of bunker-busting bombs, among which the GBU-57 could be included. It is also unknown whether Israel already possesses bunker-buster bombs of this caliber.

It is believed that, to neutralize Hasan Nasrallah, Israel used 2,000-pound BLU-109 bunker-buster bombs along with JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munitions) kits, which are attached to the bombs to achieve greater precision.

However, when it comes to destroying a target with military weaponry, no means is entirely infallible, and a bombing, even with bunker-busting bombs, always carries the possibility of being ineffective. In such a case, it is likely that Israel would consider the option of supplementing an initial strike with bunker-busting bombs by using a B61-12 nuclear missile, an air-launched tactical bomb whose destructive power, while theoretically limited, can range from 0.3, 1.5, 10, and even up to 50 kilotons.

In that case, Israel will need to carefully assess the environmental impact on the regions of Iran where it decides to deploy nuclear weapons, as well as the international community’s response after becoming the second country in history to detonate a nuclear device during a military conflict, and the first to use a tactical nuclear weapon on a strictly military target.

On the other hand, if no action is taken and the deadline for diplomacy passes, Israel would face the grave risk of being annihilated by Iran, whose government has repeatedly expressed its intention to do so.

There is no declaration of intent for the total destruction of another country in the modern era similar to that of Iran.

The economic sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries seem to be insufficient so far to halt Tehran’s aspirations, and each passing day leaves less room for effective diplomatic maneuvering.

To nuke or not to nuke? That is the question the State of Israel is currently asking itself regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Hamas continues to prolong the exchange of hostages for Palestinian terrorists, allowing Iran to buy more time in its pursuit of a nuclear bomb, while Israel’s time is running out.