So…where is the uranium?

The ceasefire that ended the so-called “12-Day War” has ushered in a fragile calm to a region perpetually on the brink. While the United States, Israel, and Iran have officially agreed to halt hostilities, early reports of sporadic violations reveal a deeper truth: this war may have paused, but it has not ended.

While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a historic victory, claiming — with the help of the United States — the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran, meanwhile, dismissed the attacks as unjustified aggression and vowed to continue its nuclear ambitions, making clear it will not abandon its uranium enrichment activities.

The question now is: how much of Iran’s nuclear capability was really destroyed? Netanyahu’s confident declarations suggest a surgical strike that effectively crippled the program. He claimed key sites like the fortified Fordow enrichment facility were “flushed down the drain,” asserting that Israel dealt a decisive blow. Similarly, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated.”

However, Trump reportedly expressed frustration and anger towards U.S. intelligence agencies for downplaying the extent of the damage. He criticized them for not supporting his claims of a total wipeout, accusing them of minimizing the success of the operation. But intelligence reports paint a more cautious picture. U.S. intelligence indicates the damage may have delayed Iran’s progress, perhaps by months, but did not eliminate the program entirely.

Yet amid the conflicting narratives over success or failure, one crucial question comes to mind: where is the uranium? If the attacks truly devastated the facilities, what happened to the highly enriched uranium allegedly stored deep inside sites like Fordow? So far, there is no public evidence of radioactive contamination, which might have been expected had such stockpiles been hit directly or destroyed.

Netanyahu, for his part, had stated in the lead-up to the strikes that Israel knew where Iran was hiding its enriched uranium. While he did not provide specifics, his remarks highlighted the scope of Israeli intelligence and its continued readiness. His assertion, made before the world, served both as a deterrent and a promise: Israel would act again if necessary.

At the center of this puzzle lies a worrying fact: Iran reportedly hid around 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent or more before the conflict escalated. To grasp the gravity, consider that the uranium used in the Hiroshima bomb weighed approximately 64 kilograms and was enriched to roughly 85 to 90 percent U-235.

This means that the hidden stockpile in Iran could provide enough fissile material for multiple nuclear devices. The enrichment level of 60 percent, while not weapons-grade, is dangerously close; advancing to 90 percent—the threshold for a bomb—can be achieved relatively quickly given Iran’s technical capabilities. This concealed uranium represents a latent threat hanging over the region, a ticking time bomb of geopolitical instability.

Iran’s official stance remains defiant. The regime continues to assert its right to uranium enrichment under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, framing its nuclear program as a peaceful and sovereign endeavor. In the wake of the attacks, Tehran reaffirmed its commitment to enrich uranium and rejected calls to halt or scale back its nuclear activities. It dismissed international demands and increased inspections as politically motivated attempts to undermine Iran’s sovereignty.

Tehran’s leaders have signaled that they will press on, regardless of the military setbacks, suggesting a willingness to expand clandestine operations and safeguard hidden stockpiles.

The Israeli military may have scored a tactical victory in the recent conflict, but the strategic challenge remains monumental. The hunt to locate and neutralize Iran’s hidden uranium stockpiles is a pressing priority.

The Mossad, along with other Western intelligence agencies, is under immense pressure to uncover clandestine facilities and prevent Iran from reconstituting a nuclear weapons program. This effort is not merely about state-to-state deterrence—it is also a matter of global security. Given Iran’s well-documented support for terrorist organizations, the prospect of a nuclear device, or even nuclear material, ending up in the hands of a proxy group cannot be dismissed.

Should Iran succeed in building nuclear bombs, the risk of proliferation to non-state actors would represent a nightmare scenario the world cannot afford to ignore.

One critical consideration is the potential consequences of a targeted strike on these hidden uranium caches. Unlike a nuclear explosion, an attack on uranium storage would not trigger a chain reaction. Uranium enriched to 60 percent or more is not highly radioactive but is chemically toxic and can release hazardous radioactive dust if disturbed.

A missile strike could disperse this dust into the environment, causing local contamination and long-term health risks to civilians and soldiers nearby. While the contamination would likely be confined to a limited area, the humanitarian and political fallout would be severe, and the risk of escalation could be immense.

For Israel, the calculus is fraught with peril. Acting against hidden uranium stockpiles risks triggering retaliation and international backlash. Yet allowing these materials to remain hidden and potentially weaponized poses an even graver threat. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of the Iranian nuclear issue and the broader Middle East security landscape.

In the end, the ceasefire may have brought a pause in the fighting, but it has not resolved the fundamental challenge posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Netanyahu’s declarations of victory contrast with the reality that Iran continues enriching uranium and maintains hidden stockpiles capable of fueling multiple nuclear weapons. The question “Where is the uranium?” remains unanswered, and until it is, the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region looms large.

Israel may breathe a temporary sigh of relief, but the intelligence and diplomatic efforts required to fully eliminate this threat have only just begun. The war over Iran’s nuclear program is far from over—it has simply entered a more covert and dangerous phase, with profound implications for regional and global security.