Spring retreats even though Pesach arrives

This has been a season where next week it looks like rain, but this week remained cold and dry. Will the next few days be any different?

Many of our big rain storms occur here when cold air flows southward from the polar areas and interacts with southern stream storms moving across the southern Mediterranean. The southern storms bring the moisture and the northern storms bring the energy to create a long lasting storm. For the most part, though, our northern cold air intrusions have been blocked by anomalously strong high pressure from Scandinavia into Western Russia. The southern storms have also been less frequent this year due to a weakening of the El-Nino ocean pattern. One theory holds that the high pressure area that is blocking our cold air intrusions is a result of unusually warm Mediterranean and Black Sea surface temperatures — themselves a symptom of Global Warming.

Still, some troughs of low pressure have made their way southward and another is poised to bring a sharp drop in temperatures today through Tuesday of the holiday week.  This unusual (out of season) cold outbreak will flow in on the eastern side of a strong ridge of warm air originating over northern Africa and extending northward into western Europe.

Our best rain chances are Thursday, Saturday (Shabbat), and Monday of the coming week.  The most likely time for thunderstorms (with heavier rain) are on Monday. That is when the coldest air at upper levels is forecast to flow over us.

Of course, we’ll be praying for Dew soon — to water our growing plants at night — but a last rainy period could help ease our drought.

By midnext week, the weather should turn favorable for outdoor activities until the end of the holiday,.

Happy Pesach!