Takeaways from the non-agreement MOU  

Reuters reports that US President Trump signed a copy of the US-Iran MOU to end their war on Wednesday while he was still in France, and President Pezeshkian of Iran held up a mutually signed copy of the MOU on Iranian TV later in the day.

Given Iran’s history of not abiding by the agreements it signs, the first takeaway should be that none of us should take the document seriously. Yes, the fighting will stop and the Strait of Hormuz will be open toll-free as long as the MOU is in place, but one can almost guarantee that it will not survive its 60-day period and will not move to the second phase of the understanding. Agreements like these in this region rarely successfully move to phase two.

For example, we should all remember that the war with Hamas in Gaza ended with a formal acceptance of a truce agreement on October 3, 2025. Yet the formal transition to phase two of the Gaza truce and peace plan, which outlines measures like demilitarization and the transition to a technocratic interim government in Gaza, has remained heavily stalled due to ongoing disagreements and localized fighting, even though President Trump announced its start on January 14, 2026.

So, eight months after that agreement went into effect, there is still no second phase, Israel is still heavily involved in skirmishes in Gaza, and Hamas is rebuilding its operational structure and firepower. Some peace agreement is it not? But it does demonstrate the realities of such negotiations in this region.

The US-Iran MOU in the very first paragraph says: “The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other.”

Israel, of course, was not a party to the discussions and does not believe that there are any restraints on its responding to attacks by Hezbollah against Israel. However, according to Reuters, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei addressed the terms of the memorandum of understanding signed with the US, claiming that “if Israel’s attacks in Lebanon continue – it will be considered a violation of the agreement.”

Expanding on that, an Iranian official close to the negotiations said that “Gaza is present in the spirit of the understandings” between Washington and Tehran. According to him, “continued escalation in Gaza or Lebanon could undermine the foundations of any political agreement. The arenas are interconnected. What happens in Gaza affects the entire region.” Even though there was no mention of Gaza prior to the signing, now the Iranians are trying to fold Gaza into the understanding as well. This is, of course, typical of the bargaining mentality of the shuk and of the Iranian leadership over the last 49 years. Agree on a price in rials and when you go to pay, the vendor in the shuk says he was talking about dollars.

The second paragraph says: “The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.” What a gift this is from the US to Iran. A country that as of February 27^, was the world’s largest exporter of state terrorism and treated as a pariah in international diplomacy, by “losing” the war gains new stature as a respected sovereign nation. I guess that will make the families of the upwards of 40,000 Iranians murdered by the government in Iran during the demonstrations earlier this year feel comforted, will it not?

The sixth paragraph says: “The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion.”

In business, we sometimes used the term “a profitable bankruptcy” when we thought a company went under and the owners were somehow or other able to walk away with gobs of cash while the creditors were left with nothing. It would appear that in diplomacy a country can lose a war “profitably” and have the enemy pick up the tab not only for reconstruction but for redevelopment as well. The US needs to be careful that other countries don’t learn this lesson and wage war with them in order to lose and then be resurrected economically.

The eighth paragraph deals with the reason the US went to war with Iran in the first place, to ensure that they never have a nuclear weapon. As it is written, “The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons.” Recall that the JCPOA, which was agreed upon during the Obama years, said: “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.” Actually, one would have to admit that the JCPOA, which President Trump withdrew from when he took office during his first term, had stronger language than the new agreement, as it limited the acquisition of nuclear weapons as well as their production. Does not seem like much of an improvement at all.

Of course, paragraph nine gives Iran a bit more leeway when it says: “The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.”

From an economic standpoint Iran is then due to get incredible immediate relief as the US “undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers fort exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like,” according to the text in paragraph ten.

While in the next paragraph, it is stated that: “The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.” That basically lifts all of the restrictions on Iran’s financial operations that were put in place to punish the country that continues to be the world’s largest exporter of state terrorism.

From our side here in Israel, at least for the moment, we seem to no longer have a friend in the White House, given the President’s trashing of both our Prime Minister and our military during his various meetings during the G7. No doubt when the final chapters are written about this war, Israel will get the blame for having dragged America into a war they could not win.

However, it is important to set the record straight and defend Israel from all the patently ridiculous charges that we are hearing that Trump was played by Israel.

As we move forward, remember that the Prime Minister of Israel has an obligation to do what he believes is in the best interests of this country. Through a number of US administrations, Netanyahu has lobbied American presidents to consider military action against Iran and not to appease them with concessions. He has done so because a nuclear Iran poses a direct existential threat to our survival. The US may be next on Iran’s hit list, but we are in close shooting range and live on the front lines.

Trump was the first president who agreed with Bibi’s pleadings, as Trump presumably believed as well, and has often stated that attacking Iran was in America’s best interests. Truth be told, this was all Trump’s decision made in spite of the recommendations to the contrary by everyone in his first administration and numerous people in this one as well, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who basically said America is ready but doesn’t advise going ahead with the war.

So, make no mistake, this was Trump’s war entered into without a long-range plan, mistakenly believing that it would take just a few days to claim victory. He was not ready for the surprise that awaited all of us, even our intelligence community here in Israel…..their seco^nd major mistake in under three years (October 7 was the first).

Those who are looking for a way out of blaming Trump for the war by saying Israel is at fault or that Israel got America into this war could easily be classified as unrepentant antisemites. The people responsible have to take responsibility. We here in Israel incorrectly assessed Iran’s strength and resilience for which we bear the burden of that error. But America bears the burden of a badly planned war, one which Israel would never have attempted on its own.

At the end of the day, we who live here in Israel are grateful for the miracles we experienced in this war and while we grieve our losses, we also know it all could have been much worse. For the most part, we also believe, as it is written, that the God of Israel neither slumbers nor sleeps and will not abandon us. Let us hope that we get past this embarrassing moment with our spirit intact as we face what will surely be yet more challenging days ahead of us.