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Giovanni Giacalone
Eyes everywhere

The “deal” with Hamas promoted by the US is a trap for Israel and it helps Iran

Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei and US Secretary of state Antony Blinken. (Youtube. Used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law).

The new “deal” for a ceasefire in Gaza promoted by the US administration does not seem to include Israeli control over the Philadelphi corridor nor the presence of the IDF in central Gaza’s Netzarim corridor to prevent the return of Hamas terrorists to the north, as demanded by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

As explained by the Times of Israel, US officials have previously said that the return of armed Hamas forces to northern Gaza would constitute a violation of the deal. Still, mediators have now proposed a clause that gives Israel the right to resume military hostilities against Hamas if weapons are moved into northern Gaza.

The Times of Israel article also explained that, according to Israeli security sources, the withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor for six weeks would not enable Hamas to significantly rearm. In addition, Israel and Egypt would implement arrangements regarding the Gaza-Egypt border.

The strategic and tactical reasons for which this “deal” would allow Hamas to rearm and retake power in Gaza have been perfectly explained by Seth Frantzman in an analysis for the Jerusalem Post and it’s hard not to agree with him.

In fact, six weeks is a huge amount of time and Hamas would easily regain forces and start hitting Israel once again. At that point, the IDF would have to respond, and the war would start over once again. Only a naïve person can seriously believe that leaving the two corridors will not reinforce Hamas and there is a clear reason if the terrorist organization wants the IDF to withdraw from these sites.

Letting Hamas regroup and rearm will only prolong the conflict and put more Israeli lives at jeopardy, including the ones of those who have just recently returned to the south. In addition, what about the hundreds of IDF soldiers who died during the campaign to eradicate Hamas? Did they die for nothing? Plus, can Egypt be trusted? Considering all the tunnels that were found between Gaza and Egyptian territory?

Unfortunately, this is only part of the problem, because with Yahya Sinwar still alive, Hamas could in fact claim victory as Israel would move from the objective of “eradicating Hamas” to letting it survive and take control of the Strip once again.

It is also important to keep in mind that, while reorganizing, Hamas will most likely try to delay as long as possible the release of the hostages who are still alive, because that is the only leverage the terrorist organization has to avoid destruction.

Another consistent problem is Iran. The elimination of Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran was a strong blow to the Iranian regime. Accepting such a “deal” would take the regime from a position of extreme weakness to one of strength, presenting itself to the world as “magnanimous” for not having responded to the elimination of the Palestinian terrorist leader on its soil in exchange for “peace” in Gaza, when we all know very well that the Iranian regime has every interest in saving and rearming its Palestinian proxy in Gaza. This is indeed not a problem for the current US administration which is pursuing the “Iran appeasement” policy, but it surely goes against Israel’s interest.

It must also be said that after having heard for months the Israeli leadership refer to a global fight against Islamist terrorism, against Hamas “which is no longer just a terrorist organization but also a transnational ideology”; about the fact that if Israel capitulates, then it will be the turn of the rest of the West, it would be quite strange to see Netanyahu cut a deal with Hamas. Especially, since the Palestinian terrorist organization is now in a position of extreme weakness. There are countries that, at a time when Israel has been constantly targeted by much of the international community, have risked their internal security to side with Israel against Islamist terrorism. These countries could start pondering if it was worth the risk.

The Biden administration, and other members of the international community interested in “peace” should rather be pressuring Hamas to free the hostages without conditions, given Hamas’ current weakness (thanks to the Israeli military campaign) instead of pushing for a trap that would bring more bloodthirsty terrorists on the ground and ready to kill Israelis. However, that is not happening.

Let’s recall that Israel is a sovereign democratic State, while Hamas is a terrorist organization blacklisted by the US, Canada, the EU, and the UK. This “deal” would be a political suicide for Netanyahu, a major threat to Israel’s security, and it could also have repercussions on those international partners who side with Israel against Islamist terrorism.

This “deal” is just a way for the Biden administration to bail out the Iranian regime and keep Hamas alive. Donald Trump was very clear when he advised Netanyahu to finish off Hamas as quickly as possible and that is the only way out of the swamp.

About the Author
Giovanni Giacalone is a senior analyst in Islamist extremism and terrorism at the Italian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies-Catholic University of Milan, at the Europe desk for the UK-based think tank Islamic Theology of Counter-Terrorism, and a researcher for Centro Studi Machiavelli. Since 2021 he is the coordinator for the "Latin America group" at the International Institute for the Study of Security-ITSS. In 2023 Giacalone published the book “The Tablighi Jamaat in Europe”.
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