The Emperor Has No Clothes

The Emperor Has No Clothes – Regional Superpower that has become the laughing stock of the Middle East.

Since it’s inception, Israel has heavily relied on the Doctrine of Deterrence to keep it safe in a “very tough neighborhood”. From its nuclear ambiguity to the build-up of high tech modern electronics to sophisticated modern weaponry, the message loud and clear was always, “don’t”. For over 70 years this doctrine held and Israel successfully combated with the clear strategy to ensure the safety of her citizens. 

Like the Walls of Jericho, this all came crumbling down on October 8th.

Hamas’s murderous rampage on October 7th pulled away the curtain, but Hezbollah’s initial attacks commencing October 8th with little Israeli response reinforced the Israeli bluff. For over nine whole months, Israel took a pounding from Hezbollah. She evacuated over 150,000 citizens from both the north and the south essentially conceding it’s territory on both fronts. She has little response to Nasrallah’s bluster and missiles except to attempt a tit for tat response in southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah gladly accepts. In the meanwhile, Iran directly attacked Israel with a massive 300 plus missile and drone launch on April 14th, in which Israel “took it on the chin”. Iranian supported militias in Iraq and Syria launch drones at their whim and the Houthis continue to strike Eilat undeterred by Israel’s “one-time”retaliatory attack.

The likely new norm in Iran’s axis of resistance attacks on Israel is portrayed by the Houthi drone strike in the heart of Tel Aviv. One only needs to listen to Arab news sites and read Arab commentary to hear the laughter each time Netanyahu responds with “total victory” or the even more comical “we will hurt those that try to hurt us.” No one takes Israel seriously anymore, much less quake in their boots when she threatens. Israel has been exposed to the whole world, the emperor has no clothes.

Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Bahrain most recently felt that an alliance with Israel through the United States was their best option in deterring Iran’s hegemonic aspirations for the region. With American reluctance to portray power and Israel appearing as a paper tiger, all three of these gulf states are making overtures to Iran, Russia and China as a fall back to ensure their survival. The notion of Israel-Saudi rapprochement is quickly fading.

Netanyahu maintains his perception that Israel needs to finish off Hamas before it considers tackling Hezbollah or even Iran. His marching orders to the military is total victory over Hamas. Total victory over Hamas, though fully undefined, is what in his eyes is the only action that can save his coalition and his political future. He almost singlehandedly built up Hamas as a strategic offset to the Palestinian Authority, and with that huge blunder, believes only its destruction can now save him. The fact that Hamas is severely weakened and no longer poses an existential threat to Israel in the short term does not matter to him, nor does the fact that each passing day, each fake Hamas declaration of civilian massacres, Israel becomes more and more a pariah in the international community. Additionally he believes that the Israeli home front has become soft and will be unable to withstand the cost of a war with Hezbollah, so why enact that when he can continue to hammer Hamas which can no longer cause any serious damage to Israel’s home front, while yelling from the tree tops only he can save Israel.

Yesterday, Israelis experienced a significant perception shift, that some are even calling, a”turning point in the war.” A Hezbollah miscalculation resulted in the horrifying massacre of at least 12 Israeli children in the Druze town of Majdal Shams; the largest targeted killing of Israelis since October 7th. Israeli Druze, as a community, are extremely loyal and a key component to our military, police and prison infrastructures  They rightly demand, as do the hundreds of thousands of Israelis living in the Galilee and Golan, that their lives matter as much as a single life in Tel Aviv. For over nine months, the north of Israel has been uninhabitable. For nine months, Israeli leaders both political and military have threatened “extremely painful” retaliatory action if Hezbollah continues to rain down missiles and drones, and for over nine months, Iran and Hezbollah laugh in our faces and continue their reign of terror. Deterrence is now defined as Israel assassinates a Hezbollah commander, and Hezbollah retaliates with hundreds of missiles and drones deeper and deeper into Israel. It has become common thought that the deterred is now Israel and the sought after buffer zone has become northern Israel, not southern Lebanon.

Where was Mr. Security when the massacre of Majdal Shams occurred?  Netanyahu was taking the weekend to bask in his personal glory of presenting a nothing speech to the U.S. Congress and meeting with the current US president, and the two candidates for next POTUS. His speech was full of self glorifying bluster about total victory over Hamas, minimizing the impact of anti-Israel protesters, and a demand that the U.S. continue to fully support his righteous cause. What was missing besides too little on the hostages or the Iranian threat was any real strategic plan and what is actually needed in hard step by step implementation moves to achieve it. His egotistical moment in the limelight was cut short by the traumatic event in the Golan. After waiting way too long to publicly react, Mr. Security announced that instead of leaving the U.S. the scheduled twelve hours from the time of attack, he was shortening his trip by four hours, and in his usual bluster once again promised a harsh response. This “harsh response” though would have to wait until he returned to Israel the next day because even though everybody has known for nine months that a miscalculation required an intensified response and multiple plans to realize this were drawn up, Netanyahu needed an in person security assessment. All I’m sure of is that neither Nasrallah nor the Ayatollahs are quivering in fear.

So as I write, Bibi has landed in Tel Aviv and will meet shortly with his security cabinet. His options are fairly limited. America and Western Europe calls for restraint. This mostly matters as Bibi has annihilated any good will or leeway with world leaders through his nine months of actions and rhetoric There is concern that our military, which by definition of a people’s army, is not built for long wars, yet he has frittered away nine months playing whack-a-mole in Gaza. He can threaten to make Beirut look like Gaza, but after screaming this for nine months, it sort of loses its effectiveness.  Lacking a strategic war plan and relying on bluster and rhetoric has cost Israel all of its credibility. Israel’s most forceful asset, its Doctrine of Deterrence, has kept her safe in this very “rough neighborhood”.  Without credible deterrence, we can all sit back and await our doom. Unfortunately, the only option today is to try and reclaim some inkling of deterrence by launching a full scale operation in southern Lebanon. Does Bibi have the fortitude to make such a massive decision with all its consequences or does the emperor really have no clothes?