The Faithful Wounds of a Friend
As King Solomon penned in the book of Proverbs: “faithful are the wounds of a friend” and “in the multitude of counsellors there is safety.” As Israel’s closest friend, I would like to humbly offer a perspective from the United States of America. This counsel, separated from the still-raw emotions of October 7, 2023, is intended to provide the type of corrective guidance that flows from a firm desire to guide our Israeli friends away from reckless actions and ruinous policies.
I’ll begin with Israel’s war aims – they’ve shifted into the unachievable and the endless. When this war started after a barbaric terrorist attack, the aims were two-fold: to secure the safe return of the hostages and to defeat Hamas. The first objective remains, but the second has morphed into an impossible fantasy – eradicating Hamas. ISIS, al Qaeda, or even Naziism have never been eradicated, and the complete elimination of Hamas’ radical ideology is an aim whose unachievability is leading to strategic decisions by Israel that will take endless time and cost endless resources.
Which leads to a second important point in which I agree with senior leaders of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) – the offensive operation in Gaza City is profoundly unwise. In reality, it is fraught with risk while being unlikely to yield any real benefits.
The absence of benefits stems from the fact that though it can never be eradicated, Hamas has already been defeated. After nearly two years of pummeling by the IDF, Hamas is no longer a consolidated fighting force and poses no realistic threat to Israel. They are defeated!
The presence of risks is due to the significant downside associated with this operation. Israel risks losing the lives of the remaining hostages, losing the well-being of a military that is exhausted and demoralized, and losing world opinion that can hinder Israel’s interests in every other arena. As opinion shifts against Israel, even in the United States, it is creating an isolation that is approaching pariah status from which recovery is uncertain.
A third point is related to the psyche of the average Israeli. When visiting Israel a few months after October 7th, the loss of security among the population was striking and profound. That insecurity lingers today, even though the world has changed significantly and favorably for Israel’s interests. Hezbollah has been decimated, Syria has been remolded, and Iran has been neutered. As a result, Israel stands alone as the dominant power in the region, and the threats that used to surround it are no longer potent, powerful, nor probable.
The IDF has seen some amazing tactical and operational successes in the last year – in Syria, and Lebanon, and in Iran. Many of those have yielded strategic gains as described in the paragraph above. Yet some have done the opposite. One of those is the continued onslaught in Gaza that plays into Hamas’ strategy of maximizing human suffering.
Another is the strike on Hamas in Doha, Qatar on September 9th. This tactical activity, no matter how precise its operational outcomes, will likely alienate one of the few countries that can exert pressure on Hamas to end the war. And until new leaders are named, which they will always be no matter how many strikes are successfully made the IDF, there is no leader in Hamas with the authority to make a deal. Thus, the war will continue while Israel faces a slew of added condemnation for its operationally successful strikes that may have created major strategic liabilities.
What should Israel do with this friendly counsel? First, refocus back to the original objectives that accepts the defeat of Hamas as a key desired end state. Second, take a reasonable deal to get back as many remaining hostages as quickly as possible while handing over the governance of Gaza to someone other than Hamas. With no real threats on the horizon, Israel is in a position to take a bit of risk in the deal that it accepts. And the faster it puts the war in Gaza in the rearview mirror, the quicker it can get back to reaping the massive benefits of being the region’s undisputed economic and military power.
Finally, take a look back at how far Israel has come in the last two years. While there are ongoing physical and moral injuries to tend to, and strained relationships and eroded reputations to mend, Israel has the benefit of doing so in a world that looks a lot better than it did in October of 2023.
While the wounds from such admonition may sting a bit, it all stems from faithfulness to a friendship that is strong enough to share hard truths. I suspect King Solomon would appreciate it!
