The Fast Track to Lebanonization

Israel is presently swaying on the cliff of a phenomenon far more subtle than plain political chaos—it is inexorably moving towards a state of Lebanonization. This transition is not a distant, dystopian future; rather, it is the path Israel is crossing today, with countless signs manifesting around us.

Consider the recent controversial statement by the police chief expressing disgust at the sight of two men kissing. While this might appear as an isolated incident of chauvinism, such words from individuals in positions of power signal a much deeper shift—one that destroys the very essence of Israel’s social fabric. When leadership sanctions hate or intolerance, it exceeds a passing moment of prejudice; it becomes the legitimization of divisions that cut across our already-fragile society, leaving secular, religious, and ethnic identities further alienated. Lebanon’s descent followed a similar route, with public figures and officials employing rhetoric to sharpen the differences between groups.

Another alarming indicator is the rise of unchecked power. The High Court’s (Bagatz) recent concerns over legislation granting National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir extensive control over the police should be a cause for significant worry. This centralization of authority in the hands of ideologues—unchecked and unbalanced—echoes the essence of Lebanon’s decline. Once governed by a fragile power-sharing system, Lebanon is now ruled by militias and power brokers, each controlling their own armed factions and pieces of the state.

The creeping militarization of civilian life is equally concerning. The IDF’s recent admission about the death of three hostages as a “byproduct” of a military strike is a haunting reflection of a greater trend—one where military action often blurs with politics, and civilian lives become collateral damage. In Lebanon, we witness the outcome of such policies: a state where armed forces and militant groups operate with license, and the distinction between defense and aggression disappears.

Public trust in leadership is also loosening at an alarming rate. The recent gathering of thousands in Tel Aviv to demand government action on hostages held in Gaza reflects growing disappointment—a public that feels abandoned by those in power. Lebanon, too, became a place where the government no longer represented its people, resulting in communities turning to whoever could promise security, often local warlords or foreign actors, further sowing division and chaos.

Even more telling are the confusion and fear triggered by unauthorized evacuation flyers dropped over southern Lebanon. The IDF’s denial of these claims highlights the dangerous gap between government actions and public perception. In Lebanon, unclear communication, mixed with misinformation, created a cycle of mistrust and paranoia that has never been broken.

Israel is accelerating down this path, with the echoes of Lebanon growing louder by the day. Israel’s strength has always been in its diversity, its democratic institutions, and its military power—but we are beginning to see these very elements turn against us. Indeed, we are already well into the aftermath of the processes initiated by Netanyahu, Ben Gvir, Rotman, and their associates. The controversial judicial reform, the so-called “change management” at the police, and other systemic changes have set in motion a transformation that threatens the very foundations of our democratic society. These initiatives have already begun to reshape our institutional ecology, corroding the checks and balances that have long safeguarded our democracy.

The slide into Lebanonization is not predictable, but if we would not address these warning signs now, we risk facing the same fate as our northern neighbor. As the lasting lyrics of Daniel Salomon’s song Eretz Yafa (Beautiful Land) mentioned:

Beautiful land,
How much longer will you bury your sons?
Look, they are dying, and you remain unchanged,
A land flowing with milk and blood.

These words are both a warning and a lament. We risk becoming a land of blood instead of milk and honey.