The Future of the American Jewish Community: A Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty?
Much has been written about the future of the American Jewish community. From historians, scholars and demographers to well respected Rabbinic leaders, they all pose the most perplexing question of our time – what will our American Jewish community look like in the future?
This fascinating obsession with our community’s future is anchored in our rich background, DNA and history which focuses upon the past and the present as a predictor or indicator for our future.
As Jews, we dream and pray for a future that will be blessed with the coming of the geula as well as with the hope and promise that the phrase B’shana HaBa B’yerushalayim (“Next Year in Jerusalem,”) becomes a reality. Not a hypothetical reality, but an aspiration which we truly and sincerely believe to become an eventuality.
So, in light of what we now know and experience as American Jews, what does our future hold for us?
First, it is essential that we accept the notion that its virtually impossible to actually predict the future. Having said that, there are communal and societal trends and realities which can in part inform our future.
Several characteristics of our community relate to demography, religious practice, migration, antisemitism, Jewish education, the impact of technology and our relationship to Israel, to name a few.
Although one can write volumes regarding each of these characteristics, I will attempt to highlight how and why several of these may affect and inform our community’s future. Remember, if our past experience or history has in any way informed where we are today, than I sincerely believe that today’s trends will affect, inform and shape our future.
According to the Jewish Federations of North America, the American Jewish community is at a ‘complex inflection point, marked by a paradox of vulnerability and deep resilience.’
In their recent Report they indicate that while major structural demographic and political changes loom, an unprecedented wave of communal reawakening is simultaneously reshaping Jewish life.
Education and Jewish Identity/Engagement
In a recently published Study, it is reported that for the first time ever student enrollment in all types of Jewish day schools increased across the board this past year.
No longer is day school enrollment an exclusive Orthodox phenomenon, but one which is now impacting other ideological or denominational movements.
Whether this trend continues into the future, remains to be seen. But its important to note that these pupil enrollment increases, according to the Study, are the result of a poor and mediocre public education system as well as a significant increase in antisemitism.
Parenthetically, if these are indeed the factors which are driving pupil increases in non-Orthodox day schools, than I sincerely believe that the prognosis for the future will continue to include these these same factors as well.
With the impressive meteoric growth of our community’s birthrate in the Orthodox community in the Untied States, it is almost certain that the majority of day school enrollment increases will be found in our Orthodox day schools and yeshivot and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future.
This Orthodox expansion is due primarily to higher birth rates and younger marriage ages. Projections also suggest that over the next few decades, the proportion of American Jews identifying as Orthodox will more than double. This will according to many sociologists and demographers change our community’s theological and political center of gravity.
This demographic reality suggests several major challenges and needs for our future, (in the Orthodox community). They include, affordability, the cost of tuition, education and Jewish living, housing, special social services and programs as well as a variety of exigencies which are specific to the Orthodox community.
At the risk of sounding arrogant, this is no longer a prediction, but rather a demographic and societal reality and eventuality.
Finally, in addition to formal Jewish education, we our now experiencing a resurgence in spirituality, informal Jewish education, experiential programming and a yearning to rediscover our Jewish roots through new and exciting learning venues, Jewish practice and study opportunities.
This phenomenon, especially since October 7th, may be due increased levels of ethnocentricity which affords us the opportunity to look more inwardly at our religious and spirituality relevance and raisin d’etre.
Our Relationship to Israel
The other critically important phenomenon we will face in the future is what is refereed to as “The Israel Divide”
Unfortunately the relationship between American Jews and Israel is increasingly polarized. While older and more traditional segments maintain staunch, fundamental support, a visible portion of younger progressive Jews express deep friction with Israeli government policies, leading to fierce internal communal debates.
This most unfortunate reality will demand that our community will need to increase its hasbarah in support of Israel. It also suggests that we will need to redouble, if not triple our efforts to provide our youth with a more comprehensive foundation regarding the centrality and history of Israel and its relevance to our lives. This will demand a significant challenge to our educational community working in tandem with Israel-based institutions.
Antisemitism, Jew-Hatred and Anti-Israel Movements
The next challenge relates to the increased level of Jew-hatred, anti-Israel and antisemitism in the United States and its negative impact and affect on our future.
Today, we are witnessing a level of antisemitism and Jew-hatred unsurpassed since WWII. This frightening phenomenon, especially post October 7th, is a reality which is real, harsh and somewhat overwhelming.
Although it is difficult to predict how today’s events and trends will effect our future, one thing is certain, unless there is a seismic change in the social and political reality of American society the increased level of antisemitism will eventually drive more young American Jewish families to make aliyah to Israel. For others, it may force them even suppress their Jewish identity in public spaces.
Either way, it is an eventuality which must be addressed front and center and with all of our resources.
This demographic shift can also dramatically change the face of American Jewry, not unlike manner in which the Holocaust changed the trajectory and migration of European Jewry to the West and to Israel.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, I firmly believe that Judaism in America will never disappear. It will change, shift and transform itself, but it will always continue to remain a forceful source of Jewish and religious unity.
Irrespective of the challenges we are currently facing, the American Jewish community, not unlike our trajectory throughout our history will continue to be in either a growth or survival mode.
Wars, persecution and assimilation will continue to be met with stiff resistance and a communal attitude anchored in our deep and profound bitachon and emuna in HaShem.
Our battle for Jewish survival since time immemorial has always been a significant challenge. And, it has always kept us viable and steadfast. But, reality dictates that our ability to survive adversity is historic and with HaShem’s oversight will once again need to be addressed by current and future generations.
Finally, irrespective of increases in aliyah to Israel, we will always occupy and maintain a strong American presence and footprint that for centuries has advanced America’s technology, education, science, business, commerce and government in ways never before imaginable.
As the American Jewish community moves into the future, it remains to be seen whether the glass will be half full or half empty. Indeed a very mixed bag.
Although I am an optimist by nature, I have very serious concerns about the future of our Jewish community.
Yes, we are resilient, and yes we show signs of religious, spiritual growth, steadfastness and vitality. That is the half full glass. But we are also facing an existential threat like a metastasizing cancer of Jew hatred, antisemitism in addition to hatred towards Israel – representing the half empty glass.
At the end of the day, as we look at the future of the American Jewish community, we must focus our energies on those realities and eventualities which are half full as apposed to those that are half empty.
By doing so, we are guaranteed a future that is positioned for success and promise.
