The Middle East as a Test for the EU’s Geopolitical Ambitions

The European Union stands at a critical juncture in its quest to establish itself as a credible global geopolitical actor. With its intricate web of conflicts and shifting alliances, the Middle East has become an acute testing ground for the EU’s ability to project power, shape policy, and influence outcomes. As crises intensify—from the ongoing war in Gaza to the complex dynamics in Syria and Turkey’s resurgent assertiveness—the EU faces a pressing question: Can it act decisively and strategically, or will it remain mired in internal divisions and limited by its fragmented foreign policy apparatus?

Syria After Assad: Can the EU Rise to the Challenge?

The recent fall of Bashar al-Assad has sparked a seismic shift in European policies toward Syria. Within hours of confirmation that Assad and his family had fled to Moscow, several European governments began signaling plans to tighten asylum policies and, in some cases, prepare for deportations. Austria, leading the charge, announced a “return and deportation program” targeting Syrians, while countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Sweden moved to suspend asylum applications altogether.

This policy shift raises urgent humanitarian and political questions. For millions of Syrians who sought refuge in Europe since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, the prospect of returning to a war-torn homeland is fraught with challenges. Refugee advocates warn that while Assad’s departure marks a turning point, Syria remains far from safe. With its infrastructure devastated and volatile rebel groups in control, the country is ill-equipped to receive returning exiles.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), highlights the stakes: “Europe should channel significant political attention and resources to support an inclusive Syrian-led power-sharing transition. This is the only pathway towards securing European interests—whether it be regional stability, preventing new conflict and terrorism, allowing millions of Syrians to finally return home, or permanently diluting the hostile influence of external powers like Russia.”

The Syrian Quagmire and EU’s Limited Leverage

As Syrians grapple with the monumental task of rebuilding their fractured nation, Europe must navigate the complexities of post-Assad Syria to ensure regional stability, prevent new migration waves, and help Syrians forge an inclusive political transition. The EU has framed this as a pivotal moment, acknowledging both the opportunities and much more the immense challenges ahead.

Barnes-Dacey notes: “Europeans should, first and foremost, concentrate on the great opportunity presented by Assad’s demise, recognizing that the fall of the core driver of instability, brutal violence, and refugee outflows from Syria has departed the scene.”

The EU’s engagement focuses on safeguarding Syria’s territorial integrity and supporting an inclusive, Syrian-led transition guided by UN Security Council Resolution 2254. However, its influence is constrained. While the EU has imposed sanctions and pledged reconstruction aid tied to political reform, the historic bloc’s inability to shape the internal dynamics of post-Assad Syria highlights the limits of its soft power.

Turkey, a key supporter of the rebels, wields significant influence over the transition process. Ankara’s strategic moves, from hosting Syrian opposition groups to engaging in cross-border operations, complicate EU efforts. Cooperation with Turkey will be essential, as will navigating the role of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seeks to moderate its ideological position and participate in an inclusive process.

Rebuilding Syria: A Fragile Hope

The fall of Assad marks the end of an era of brutality, but the future remains fragile. Europe has an immediate role to play. Reconstruction aid must be carefully calibrated to avoid fueling a new war economy, but targeted investments—tied to concrete progress in political inclusivity—could provide critical support to a fragile nation.

Key to this effort is incentivizing moderation among groups like HTS, which has pledged to undertake an inclusive process that safeguards the rights of all Syrians. Though skepticism remains high among European policymakers, direct engagement with HTS could encourage this trajectory. Cooperation with Turkey to press for an inclusive approach, including addressing Kurdish concerns, will also be critical.

Barnes-Dacey emphasizes: “HTS is perhaps the clearest example of this: it has moderated its ideological position and committed to an inclusive process that protects the rights of all Syrians. Europeans may doubt these commitments but should work to incentivize this positive trajectory.”

Turkey: Partner or Problem?

Erdogan’s Turkey straddles the line between indispensable partner and strategic competitor. The recent thaw in EU-Turkey relations—marked by discussions on updating the Customs Union and revisiting migration agreements—highlights the bloc’s pragmatic approach. However, Ankara’s divergent actions, including its unilateral military interventions and closer ties with Moscow, complicate the EU’s efforts to engage constructively.

Turkey’s role in Middle Eastern geopolitics underscores the EU’s strategic dilemma. Its control over key migration routes, influence in NATO, and expanding economic ties with Gulf states make it a pivotal player. Yet, Erdogan’s assertive policies often clash with European interests, from maritime disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean to differing positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The EU’s challenge lies in striking a balance between cooperation and containment.

A Critical Opportunity for Europe

Europe’s broader engagement in the Middle East is deeply interconnected with other global and regional dynamics. The destabilization caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the protracted conflict in Ukraine, and the specter of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House all exacerbate the bloc’s strategic pressures.

The Indo-Mediterranean region—spanning the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean—has emerged as a key arena for maritime security, energy transit, and global trade. Houthi disruptions, including attacks on commercial shipping lanes, directly impact European interests, necessitating a coordinated response. Yet, the EU’s naval deployments and security frameworks remain underdeveloped compared to those of the United States or regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to divert European attention and resources. While the EU has shown unprecedented unity in supporting Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stressed that Europe alone cannot provide the necessary security guarantees for Ukraine—highlighting the indispensable role of the United States. These remarks come after Zelensky’s recent participation at the European Council (EUCO) summit and his visit to NATO headquarters, where he emphasised the critical importance of transatlantic cooperation for Ukraine’s defence. This underscores the strain on the EU’s political bandwidth and raises questions about its capacity to address simultaneous crises effectively.

Adding to this complexity is the potential return of Trump, whose isolationist and transactional approach to foreign policy could strain transatlantic ties and force the EU to take greater responsibility for its regional security. Rumors suggest that Trump may push NATO allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP and demand higher purchases of US liquefied natural gas, with potential sanctions looming for non-compliance. These prospects amplify the uncertainty surrounding the EU’s ability to effectively navigate its security and energy dependencies.

Testing Europe’s Strategic Resolve

The EU’s response to these overlapping challenges will serve as a litmus test for its geopolitical aspirations. To succeed, European leaders must overcome internal divisions and adopt a more cohesive and proactive foreign policy. The priorities include strengthening engagement with Turkey through calibrated economic and diplomatic measures, bolstering maritime security in the Indo-Mediterranean by enhancing naval capabilities, reasserting influence in Syria through coordinated efforts with allies to ensure political reforms, and building resilience against external shocks such as Russian aggression or shifts in US foreign policy to safeguard European interests in an increasingly multipolar world.

The Middle East presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the European Union. As crises converge, the region starkly reminds us of the costs of inaction and the rewards of strategic coherence. If the EU can rise to the occasion, it could cement its role as a credible geopolitical actor. Failure, however, risks relegating Europe to the margins of global influence—a scenario it can ill afford in today’s turbulent world.