The Need for a Strategic Vision

We are in the fourth week of the second US-Israel vs. Iran war, Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion. Although this time it was not expected to be a short conflict, and concerns about entering a war of attrition with Iran existed from the very beginning, there was still some hope that it would not last more than two weeks — only slightly longer than Operation Rising Lion, which lasted 12 days, from June 13 to 24, 2025. It was, most certainly, wishful thinking.

Once again, and even more impressively than last year, Israel’s military achievements are beyond imagination, especially those of the Israeli Air Force operating thousands of miles from home, with all the intelligence support required for such a campaign. Critically important has been the defense against incoming ballistic missiles, which in this war once more demonstrates its uniqueness. It is the result of decades of investment in technology and systems development. None of this would have been possible without close collaboration with the U.S. and its massive economic support. The same applies to the overall achievements of the war, which, as we are told almost daily by Israeli leaders, politicians, and pundits, are very much due to the intimate relationship between the Israeli and U.S. military establishments.

At the time of writing these lines, there is still great uncertainty about the endgame. The question remains what will be considered, in the long run, a strategic win for Israel. For example, Dr. Eyal Hulata, who served as head of Israel’s National Security Council (NSC), stated in a recent interview on Kan Bet that the damage inflicted on Iran is very significant, but that success will ultimately be measured by two major strategic indicators: the fate of the enriched material (440 kilograms of enriched uranium, enough for roughly 11 nuclear bombs), and the future of the Iranian Islamic Republic regime.

Both objectives are very difficult to achieve. As Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel, a retired general and renowned Israeli defense expert, noted, it is hard to believe that the Iranians did not carefully conceal the enriched uranium.

The Israeli defense analyst Amos Harel argues that if the regime survives, it will strive even more determinedly to develop a nuclear bomb, based on the assumption that this is the only insurance policy that can ensure its long-term survival in power. This only sharpens the need to achieve an arrangement that fundamentally resolves the issue of the enriched fissile material.

Following the experts quoted above, and many others, there is an uncomfortable feeling that something is missing. The goals presented are primarily military, and there is almost no discourse about what Israel’s broader strategic vision should be in the aftermath of such challenging times. As Dr. Michael Milshtein writes in a recent article, “anyone who claims that demanding answers from the leadership regarding strategy reflects pessimism, a lack of assertiveness, or a failure to grasp the magnitude of the historical moment would do well to recall what was said — or what they themselves said — on the eve of October 7 regarding the policy toward Hamas.”

As time passes, it becomes clearer that in order to see meaningful outcomes from the ongoing war, more than purely military objectives must be placed on the table. It is understandable that this is not easy while Israel’s population remains under constant attack — people entering and leaving shelters several times a day (if they have one), and parents going to work while their children cannot attend kindergartens or schools.

Yet as time goes on, more voices will call for a vision that offers hope for long-term prosperity and peace. It may seem like a naive thought, but even in our region there are precedents of unexpected developments.

Eran Etzion, former deputy director of the NSC, articulated a forward-looking proposal in an op-ed  titled: “Save the date: you are cordially invited to the ‘Riyadh Conference,’ for the establishment of a new regional order.” It is highly recommended reading.

Since October 7, 2023, sentiment in Israel has shifted toward deep pessimism regarding the prospects for peace. Most Israelis are highly skeptical about the possibility of achieving anything close to it in their lifetime. Only leadership with a determined vision can change this.