When one attends the annual Shurat Ha Din conference on Law and War, it is a marathon of experts presenting their views on the International understanding of the protocols of fighting a war. It is an update on fighting international terrorist network funding. It is an opportunity to face uncomfortable truths and to digest sensitive new information which we had not heard before. One never knows what will stand out as life-changing information.
At the end of two days of seminars, military experts, politicians, international previous heads of State, technology experts and International leaders – new conclusions came upon me which I must now digest and share with you.
The first and most critical conclusion is quite simply that Israel will be at war with Lebanon in the not too distant future. It may be one year or two or three…but it is coming. It is really quite absurd as the Lebanese people have quite a good life and Israel makes no demands upon them and threatens them in no fashion. I am quite sure that the Lebanese people do not relish the idea of their homes being destroyed, family members dying and their way of life being decimated. But that is exactly what is waiting for them if there is no international attention, world-wide pressure and internal rebellion against Nazrallah’s leadership of Hezbollah.
The influence of Iran as the major player behind all that is evolving is beyond dispute. Whilst the world essentially is terrified of a nuclear capable Iran, they manage to avoid dealing with the reality that Iran is at the core of all of the previous and potential wars in the Middle East. When it was revealed that Lebanon has shored up its missiles to a whopping 140,000 units, it seemed an impossible number. Surely someone has made a mistake? Where did they come from? Who paid for them? Numbers are easy to dismiss … but facts are not.
The answers became clear over the past two days at the Shurat Ha Din conference. Iran has paid for it all and is using Hezbollah in Lebanon as its surrogate to “handle” the Israeli problem. The dots became connected when specialists on North Korea explained that country’s role in all that is developing. Whilst pretending to be interested in joining the “family of nations” North Korea is in fact not only selling Iran all the weapons It needs, but is setting up factories in Iran which are staffed with North Korean employees who make the weapons with the parts secretly shipped from North Korea on the open seas. According to the two experts, a ship from North Korea with contraband can change its flags and name on the outside up to twenty plus times in one journey in order to avoid international detection. That the dictator Kim Jae-ryong’s family is essentially evil and demagogic can be validated with the recent revelation that North Korean emissaries who were sent to meet with the U.S. negotiators returned to North Korea only to be assassinated for not bringing back the information the regime required as to what they considered the USA’s “true intentions.”
The world is facing a new group of evil players who are not dissimilar to Adolph Hitler, to whom Alan Dershowitz referred when discussing the need for nations to face evil before it has a chance to fully evolve. Dershowitz explained that had Churchill attacked Hitler in the early days, a possible 100,000 Germans might have been killed. By waiting until Europe had no option but to go to war, the result was a death toll of fifty million people. It does seem that no one is capable of learning from the lessons of history…regardless of their enormity.
Until Naftali Bennett explained that Israel’s army will never again go into Lebanon to dismantle a missile as he did when he was a specialist in the Army during the Lebanon war in which he served, it was unclear what he was about to reveal. He reports that Israel now knows that 30% to 40% of the homes in Lebanon are built with a missile room as part of the residence. That room has a ceiling which can be opened electronically so the missile can be shot from the residence. This explains how 140,000 missiles can be out of sight to overhead surveillance. Large homes are actually built around the larger missiles as they would be too large to bring into a previously built structure. Lebanon is gearing up for war. Hezbollah is in control of Lebanon now. The government of Israel knows it. Now we know it.
The creativeness of this approach is the Arab mentality at its most vile. Because they trust that Israel will not fire upon civilian targets and will follow the rules of international warfare, they presume that they will have the upper hand. They think Israel will be so torn at the thought of killing innocents, that they will not be able to defend themselves swiftly. Experts believe that Hezbollah will open the next war with 3,000 to 4,000 rockets per day aimed at Israel. Divide that into 140,000 and you can imagine the potential length of the war. That of course presumes that Israel will be caught unaware. It will not be.
Naftali Bennett unexpectedly became the most interesting speaker of the two days…because although he did not reveal the Israeli security cabinet’s plan for reprisal, he made it clear that the laws which exist for international warfare are outmoded… and hence invalid. Warfare will no longer be man to man combat on the ground. Technology has taken warfare into a terrifying place and the law is lagging behind so severely as to be irrelevant in future conflagrations.
By definition, if one allows one’s home to host a missile, then the members of the family in that home are no longer innocent collateral damage, but part of the military force intent on participating in an all-out war. That changes all prior assumptions. The very same Israeli army which up until now discussed every detail with lawyers without making a military move, would now need to have carte blanche to destroy every home, hospital, mosque and school in defense of our Nation state. The laws on the books do not begin to deal with the new realities of potential combat here in the middle east.
It is certainly not for me to say that Israel would use an atomic bomb on Lebanon, but there may be no alternative.
Alan Dershowitz spoke to the conference with stunning information which I myself had missed somewhere along the line. He reports that the Grand Mullah of Iran claims that once they reach nuclear capabilities, it will take only one bomb to kill three million Israelis. When they are reminded that Israel has nuclear capabilities which could kill 20 to 30 million of their people, they shrug their shoulders and say…”that is fine with us. We will lose people but the Muslim faith will survive. “ Little wonder the people of Iran are terrified of the Mullahs. Rightly so. If the Iranian population does not wake up soon and depose them by force, their own nation could be decimated in this web of evil intent.
Professor Dershowitz discussed at great length the need for pre-emptive action. He explained that in International law, when there is clear evidence that an enemy plans to destroy another nation, that other nation has the right of first attack. Will Israel wait for the first three or four thousand missiles to rain down on it before it reacts ?
Iran has created an opportunity for their own people to survive unscathed by encouraging Hezbollah to do its bidding.
The Israelis who are angry at their Prime Minister for not destroying Gaza as Hamas sends hundreds of rockets toward our Southern towns are not looking at the entire picture. What we have not been privy to is the severity of the situation in Lebanon. If Israel begins another war with Gaza, it would be the perfect time for Hezbollah to garner the will to begin their own attack. This is not a war which will be fought on the ground. Our soldiers will not be going into the houses to find the missiles… drones will locate them and homes and families will be decimated. Preserving peace is a delicate balance.
The message given loud and clear at the end of the conference by Nitsana Darshan-Leitner founder and president of the organization thirteen years ago, is that it is our individual obligation to let the entire world know -now … that in the next Lebanon war, all civilians will be considered combatants and will not be spared. If we share the message with clarity, there is actually a possibility that the Lebanese people who do not have the missiles in their homes will force Hezbollah out of their lives so that they will survive.
For the first time ever, I am taking pause to consider whether the time is right for an “Unity” government in spite of all the dis-unity we have witnessed. With our enemies taking themselves to a new level, we need to be cohesive as a Nation prepared to support one another rather than waste our efforts with petty deprecation.
Thus far Israel has taken the moral high ground in every war effort. How long will it be before that is no longer a viable option?