The Overton Window Theory of Conflict

I have been thinking a lot recently about the Overton Window theory of conflict. It goes like this:

Each round of conflict shifts our Overton Window -the level of violence we are willing to live with -which readies us psychologically for the next round of conflict, which is inevitably bigger than the previous one.

Example: The ongoing Occupation of the West Bank made us used to ignoring what was happening right over the Green Line. This prepared us psychologically for the war in Gaza, where we ignore what’s happening over the Green Line, and for living with some level of incoming rocket or missile attacks.

The ongoing low-level terror attacks by Palestinians in recent years made us used to living with some level of terrorism. October 7th, the worst mass atrocity since Israel’s founding, exceeded our level of tolerance for terrorism – and that’s why we responded so forcefully to it. But that base level of tolerance for a life where terrorist attacks are a reality was already there, and that’s part of why Bibi didn’t face more opposition for bolstering Hamas financially and diplomatically, so long as Hamas’s level of terror against us didn’t pass the level we considered acceptable.

In the past year of a multi-front war, we’ve grown tolerant of lives where missile attacks are daily realities. At a certain point those of us who were blessed enough to be at home, not in the army, and not directly affected by 10.7, returned to “shigra”, our daily routines. We got used to knowing we might need to stop on the side of the road and duck, or to find a bomb shelter in the mall. This shifted the Overton Window of how much risk we would endure while continuing to carry out our daily tasks. Iran surpassed that window, sending hundreds of missiles that could overwhelm our air defenses and directly hit buildings, shattering our belief that as long as we found the nearest shelter/protected space/stairwell, we’d be ok.

But how long can we keep this up? Children aren’t in school; parents are struggling to work; the tourism and leisure industry is facing severe economic hardship. Ultimately, we will have no choice but to go back to daily life. Already, more businesses are open at the local mall (which has a bomb shelter) today than two days ago.

After a few days of un-routine, faced with the prospect of having my kids home and not going out at all for weeks or months, I find myself thinking: What is the level of ballistic missile attacks I could accept while living a basic routine, where I still minimize leisure outings/inter-city travel, and try to keep things within a 10 minute run of a shelter to the best of my abilities? Is it – 2 times a week? 3? Does the time of day or night matter – an 11 am siren vs a 2 am? The first is scarier if I want to study, teach, or go to the supermarket, but the second means a sleepless night. What about the volume of missiles? An attack of a few missiles, where you can probably leave the shelter after half an hour, is different than an attack of hundreds of missiles, where you might be there for hours.

It is frightening sometimes how good we as humans are at adapting to our circumstances. With each round of conflict, we normalize a base level of violence in our lives, coding it as acceptable. We have to do so, in order to function. But this means that we lose our ability to challenge the violence, to question it, to vote it out of office (when the time comes, hopefully soon!)

The time has come to shift our Overton Windows back a little bit, to adjust our baselines, of the level of violence we consider acceptable and to continue to question the government policies that got us to this point. We must question the present and the past in order to build a better future -and allow ourselves to hope for a time of less (or maybe even no) violence.*

*Also, Mashiach could come tonight and then there will be no more war. We must continue to hope and believe in the possibility -as Jews have for 2,000 years -but also not to rely on it, to make realistic plans and preparations for a tomorrow where Mashiach has not yet come -as Jews have for 2,000 years.