The Ten Day Knockout of Hezbollah

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah “on the road to Jerusalem” martyr poster as depicted by an Israeli news without abstinence Telegram channel

This Jewish year began with the darkest Saturday in Israeli history, when Hamas terrorists marked the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War on the Latin calendar, breached Israel’s Gaza fence, and massacred 1,200 Israelis. It was a day that will stay with us probably throughout our lives. We wondered if the Israel we knew had gone astray, or if we were still able to deter our enemies.

The last Saturday of the year, culminating in perhaps the most impressive ten day maneuver since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, is markedly different. Here, Israel showing unprecedented intelligence and technological prowess appears immensely decisive with a series of events culminating with the assassination of Nasrallah and his command staff in the bunker at Hezbollah HQ in Beirut. A man of speeches, he was taken out right after Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. It’s possible that the last video Nasrallah may have ever seen was, in fact, Netanyahu’s speech, giving him the last word.

In fact, the sequence of events—starting from beeper and radio explosions to Radwan force command knockouts to Nasrallah’s assassination—amounts to some of the most successful military operations against an adversary by Israel in known memory, at least in my lifetime. The old Israel surprised the world: it was able to conquer the Suez Canal in days in ’56, win a war in six days, raid Entebbe and free all the hostages, turn back a mass invasion, and threaten Cairo and Damascus. It is old Israel all over again, seemingly replacing the image of Israel’s failures on October 7th and its inability to truly defeat Gaza, the weakest of its enemies.

The return of “old” Israel is suddenly surprising the world and will surely be the product of imagination, intrigue, and perhaps a Hollywood blockbuster for the next generation. In fact, the news is so astonishing that, unlike Gaza, it lacks any real condemnation outside of pro-Iranian circles. While the West was quick to condemn actions in Gaza, it has largely refrained from condemning the brilliant ten days in Lebanon. Even more telling, Sunni Arab moderate states are silent. We haven’t seen Saudi Arabia condemn Israel.

However, what the West has been demanding is an immediate ceasefire. Comparable to British PM Neville Chamberlain’s plea to negotiate with Hitler before World War II, we witness a Democratic Party in the United States caring more about the upcoming election than geopolitics. In fact, an appeasement is largely taking place toward populations that are either woke, Islamist, or pro-Palestinian, not only in the USA but elsewhere in the West. This is heeded in Canada, Britain, and France, with the first two announcing arms embargoes and the other demanding an immediate ceasefire, as if the last year of rockets is simply regular routine. The USA understands full well why Israel must fight, but it is a problem far away, and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris needs quiet for the upcoming general election. Any ceasefire would make them appear strong at Israel’s direct expense.

Let’s pretend to be modern-day Chamberlains for a second and entertain a ceasefire. In the Hebrew Old Testament’s Book of Genesis, Parasha Vayeira, there is a story of Abraham the Patriarch arguing with G-d over the fate of Sodom, which had been destined for destruction. Abraham haggles with G-d, who agrees to spare the sinful city if even ten righteous souls can be found there. The angels enter Sodom and save Abraham’s nephew Lot and his immediate family, but the city is utterly destroyed in a hail of fire.

To all the international voices around the world, let me ask a similar question: Can we find ten voices within Hezbollah or Hamas in Gaza that one can negotiate with? As observed by the harrowing tales of the freed hostages, few, if any, Gazans have come to the aid of the defenseless Israelis who are hostages in their wake. Even at the height of World War II, righteous gentiles saved Jews from the ovens. My question is, where are the righteous Gazans? Where are the hidden voices within Hezbollah saying, “we desire peace”?

The voices that are being heard are Western voices, not the enemy voices that need to be at the bargaining table. As such, the death of Hassan Nasrallah and the relative downfall of Hezbollah, like the destruction of Sodom, is a Godsend. It rids the world of a despicable evil that killed thousands, including Lebanese, in cold blood for Iranian imperial domination. Find for Israel ten voices for peace, and we will talk… otherwise, the voices are pure appeasement of a despicable evil.

The death of Hassan Nasrallah, who became known after Hezbollah forced Israel’s withdrawal from the South Lebanon Security Zone in 2000, is a watershed moment for the Middle East. Based on analysis shared from Hebrew sources, here are several key takeaways from his and Hezbollah’s spectacular battering over the last ten days:

1. Deterrence is back. Lost on October 7th, Israel was able to largely incapacitate a far more lethal foe than Gaza in a mere ten days. It revives old Israeli doctrines and, most importantly, restores respect both among the Israeli people toward the country’s capabilities and impresses upon our Iranian enemies that we mean business. Our enemies will think harder before testing us, knowing that severe consequences will be unleashed.
2. As also written in my op-ed predicting the Third Lebanon War in June, it provides a golden opportunity to unshackle the country of Lebanon from Hezbollah and Iranian imperialism. Additionally, it reinvigorates the Sunni oppositional axis throughout the Middle East against Iranian interests. As such, it is not surprising to see opposition-based Syrians cheerful and celebrating Nasrallah’s demise. For a change, Israel’s actions in Lebanon are highly popular in various quarters of the Middle East, as it is decapitating a mutual enemy.
3. Makes a hostage deal more likely. By severely weakening Hamas’s bigger brother to the north, Hamas and Sinwar are increasingly cornered. It may also force Iran to apply pressure for them to finalize a deal. While Sinwar wants a regional war to erupt, the outcome, especially with the liquidation of so many key individual allies, may pressure them to end the war in a weaker bargaining position than they had on October 7th. Sinwar’s ultimate fate may also be assassination, and his clock is likely also ticking. The main way he could delay the inevitable would be to close a deal for the hostages.
4. If Iran decides to escalate, the opportunity is ripe for Netanyahu to make good on his word to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities. Despite appearing menacing, Iran is in no position for a sustained war with Israel. Its April barrage against Israel caused minimal damage or casualties and was little more than a light show over parts of the country. Russia, its principal ally, is being humiliated in Ukraine with some of its most massive losses since World War II, and the United States may intervene defensively or possibly offensively. Iran knows that its strategic posturing has limits and could lose if it miscalculates, so it plays a double game but is weak. Israel should recognize this and take full advantage.
5. Global Public Opinion. It will remain publicly anti-Israel, especially in certain Western and Islamist circles. However, by showcasing impressive capability and taking out its enemies in Lebanon in such a decisive manner, Israel is garnering respect around the world. While the USA and Europe demand a ceasefire, Israel is pushing forward and achieving real results. The silent opinion amongst many will see Israel as strong. Nationalistic elements will seize on the sentiment, as will Republican backers in the United States. Human beings appreciate acts of strength and courage. Hezbollah leaves behind few friends, but the shock ten day campaign will show that Israel means what it says and knows how to accomplish its tasks. Consequently, this could lead to a shift to atleast an attitude of respect of the Jewish state more generally.

Whatever the ultimate outcome, the situation has been changed through the ten day shock success of Israel. After the Black Shabbat of October 7th, the Middle East and Israel post Shabbat of September 27/28 has once again been forever changed, hopefully in Israel’s favor.

1. 

   The scene of the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires 1994 blamed on Hezbollah and Hezbollah headquarters in 2024 have a similar ending. (Alex Lewinsky)
   

   Israel Today cover after the assassination of Hezbollah. A new Middle East (Gil Lewinsky)
   

   Syrians in Idlib celebrate in street parties after Hezbollah HQ was destroyed. (Abu Ali Express Telegram Group)
   

   Beirut’s Dahieh in flames as Israel rapidly decapitates Hezbollah, reminding many of the Israel of old. (Abu Ali Express Telegram Group)
   

   The destruction of Hezbollah HQ (Israel Realtime Telegram Group)