The three confusions
The battle versus the war
If Israel goes on to defeat Hamas – even if this is the “total victory” that PM Netanyahu promised – but emerges diplomatically isolated, economically decapitated, legally persecuted, culturally ostracized and militarily embargoed, will it even be a victory, let alone a total victory?
One can understand why the conflict against Hamas has been called a “war.” It is intended to differentiate from earlier “operations” against Hamas in terms of intent and intensity. It is intended to tell Israeli citizens, we will restore your security. It is intended to tell the loved ones of the hostages, we will get them back. It is intended to tell Hamas, never again.
However, whatever messages it is appropriate to convey, truth is, the conflict with Hamas is only a battle, it is not “the war.” The war is, at it always has been, for Israel’s survival. Israel faces much larger, better resourced enemies than Hamas.
Israel must choose a path which brings both defeat of Hamas and staying strong. It cannot defeat Hamas and become weak, just as it cannot stay strong without defeating Hamas.
Defiance versus deterrence
If Israel defies calls from all its allies to do things differently, will it provide meaningful deterrence against its enemies?
One can see the surface logic here: if Hamas believes Israel cannot be deflected from the path it has chosen, it will be more likely to make concessions – on the hostages, on the future governance of Gaza.
However, this is the false logic of “the war against Hamas” rather than the correct logic of “the battle against Hamas.”
Defiance annoys Israel’s allies and intensifies the unofficial arms embargo that is already in place. It leaves Israel weaker, G-d forbid, before its larger, better resourced enemies.
It also misunderstands Hamas. Hamas doesn’t care about the lives of its leaders or of Palestinian civilians. It cares only about destroying Israel. That is its sole raison d’etre.
If it takes the complete destruction of Hamas in Gaza, and of Gaza itself, to weaken Israel, that is a trade-off Hamas is willing to make.
Hamas is an ideological actor. It prioritizes ideological purity. It is willing to make huge sacrifices, the ultimate sacrifice, for ideological purity. Israel does not seem to understand this mindset.
Therefore, Hamas welcomes Israel’s defiance, it celebrates Netanyahu’s fit of pique, it is joyful that Israel cancelled its meetings with the US, and it considers it a victory that Israel, not Hamas, cancelled the ongoing hostage negotiations. This all contributes to a weaker Israel, G-d forbid.
Surrender versus diplomacy
If Israel was to unilaterally accept a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, would it necessarily be a surrender? Or perhaps a tactical step on the road to victory?
Again, one can understand Israel’s opposition to UNSC Resolution 2728. It would mean taking a breather on the necessary task of killing Hamas terrorists, seizing Hamas munitions and destroying Hamas tunnels, all of which the vast majority of Israelis support. PM Netanyahu is right on this point.
But it could have been different. Here’s the alternative response Israel could have provided to UNSC 2728:
“The State of Israel salutes the efforts of the UNSC to pass this resolution after months of constructive efforts to reach an outcome to this conflict that returns the hostages, satisfies our legitimate security needs in the aftermath of October 7th, and protects Palestinian civilians who are not our enemy, but – like us – victims of Hamas, and their cowardly and cynical use of human shields.
Israel laments that the UNSC members could not bring themselves to condemn the perpetrator of the disgusting terrorist act that was carried out on October 7th, but we like everyone are looking to the future, G-d willing a better future.
For Israel’s part, we welcome UNSC 2728 and will – bravely and courageously, with huge levels of self-restraint – unilaterally accept upon ourselves a ceasefire to the end of Ramadan. We trust, indeed we demand this will be extended to give Israelis some peace and time for healing during the holy period of Passover.
Israel will now focus the efforts of the IDF on securing the much-needed increases in the flow of aid to the Palestinian civilian population. To this end, we announce an emergency conference of humanitarian agencies and donors in Jerusalem to jointly strategize on how to quickly achieve the increases that are needed while protecting aid from theft by Hamas and preventing the smuggling of weaponry or dual-use technologies that will prolong this conflict.
Israel will offer the necessary facilities in Jerusalem to all donors and humanitarian agencies, adjacent to a joint operations room that will allow for real-time monitoring of aid flows into Gaza for all parties in the interests of achieving success, creating transparency and enabling smooth coordination.
Israel reserves the right to defend our troops and to protect the aid flows going into Gaza and the orderly distribution of that aid to Palestinian civilians. We also reserve the right to detain all non-authorized persons in Gaza bearing arms or preparing to use arms, and to forcibly disarm such persons if they do not comply with instructions, as a necessary pre-emptive measure.
Israel is therefore doing its part to ameliorate conditions amid this terrible tragedy, but we must truthfully declare: our hearts cannot be stilled and our voices cannot be silenced without the return of our hostages, many of them innocent women, children and the elderly that the enemy took from their homes amid a self-glorified, self-publicized orgy of torture, rape, murder, desecration of the dead, and humiliation of the living.
Israel therefore expects that within days of the unilateral ceasefire coming into force, the release of the hostages will take place. If such release is not forthcoming, Israel will reserve the right to resume intensive search and rescue activities, recognizing that no government would leave behind its captive citizens in similar conditions.
Should Hamas abide by its requirements, Israel shall coordinate with the UNSC through its allies the steps towards a permanent ceasefire, contingent on the surrender and exile of the Hamas leadership, the dismantlement of the remaining tunnels and munitions in Gaza, the reform of Gazan institutions, and the establishment of a civilian Palestinian leadership, not previously implicated in terror activities, demonstrably committed to peaceful co-existence, as is our aspiration as the Israeli leadership.”
