The United Arab Emirates: Perhaps Israel’s most significant regional partner?
The ancient Greek world is an interesting part of history. I refer to the Greek “world,” because it was in no way united as the modern state of Greece is. A complex, rich, and diverse history. Greekness was what brought most of the fiercely independent Greek city-states together in their struggle against Persia’s invasion, who seemed to be on an unstoppable march from Asia westwards. The Battle of Thermopylae, the Battle of Marathon – often overlooked, but also very impressive – and the decisive naval battle led by the Athenians at Salamis, all fascinating. But what happened afterwards in the war between Athens and Sparta was just as intriguing and showed how complex Greek solidarity was. Sparta’s Peloponnesian League, which did not include its bitter enemy Argos; The Athenian-led Delian League; Thebes, which had sided with Persia during its invasion and afterwards sided with Sparta to punish the much-hated Plataeans, who were ethnically Boeotian – like Thebes – but allies of Athens. And after Sparta emerged victorious in the Peloponnesian War and proceeded to overreach by installing pro-Spartan oligarchs wherever it could, it would be Thebes that proved to be instrumental in aiding the Messenian revolt against Sparta – the Messenians were fellow Greeks enslaved by Sparta. In the end, Spartan military power would be decisively broken by the same Thebes at the Battle of Leuctra. Oh, and before I forget, to whom did Sparta reach out for aid to defeat Athens in the Peloponnesian War? Persia.
When I look at the Arab world today, I think of the ancient Greeks. Here is why.
The Doha strike: pan-Arabism, Islamism, and reality
On September 9th, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the strike on a villa where the Hamas leadership was congregating. It turned out to be a failure. The people who were targeted seem to have all survived and the strike was carried out in a country that has been a mediator between Israel and Hamas throughout the war. A country whose natural gas reserves are key to powering the global economy – as much as we would like to believe otherwise, fossil fuels are still important resources; whose sovereign wealth fund reaches into virtually every sector of the economies of Western countries; and, when it turned out that the strike had failed, Benjamin Netanyahu tried to turn it into a “warning”- that is one very expensive warning in a political and material sense.
The condemnations were swift, with all Arab countries rushing to express their solidarity with Qatar. It continued at the United Nations General Assembly, where one after the other offered scathing critiques of Israel and the Amir of Qatar took aim at Israel specifically, declaring it an enemy, the perpetrator of state terrorism, the danger to the Middle East. It was his finest hour. Previously, the Amir had organized an Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, attended by all. But despite all the platitudes and flowery language, it would be erroneous to take all of this solidarity at face value. There is much more happening beneath the surface.
Pan-Arabism has suffered tremendously in the last decades, especially since it failed to defeat Israel in war. The ayatollah regime in Iran survived the war with Ba’athist Iraq and the Assad regime fell in 2024. Conversely, the Islamists have crafted a victorious aura that still enjoys widespread appeal in the Arab world. Hezbollah survived clashes with Israel; the Houthis managed to survive the Saudi-led coalition; and Hamas has survived all of its clashes with Israel. Islamists never admit defeat, never surrender, and always claim victory. It is one reason why the Houthis relish clashes with the United States and Israel. They oppress their own people and do not care about the dead, because they simply bestow the honor of martyrdom on them; but they will claim victory in battles with strong “infidels,” to boost their reputation and sell their ideology. And, besides Iran, Islamism has found two other significant sponsors: Türkiye and Qatar.
First, Türkiye. A country where the secularism once propagated by Kemal Atatürk has been replaced by Erdogan. While I would argue that Erdogan is an Islamist, he can be pragmatic. Because Turkish power trumps all. Erdogan considers Türkiye a regional power, perhaps even a global power. It is why he constantly refers to Ottoman greatness. But in a distant past, he tried to gain entry into the EU as a member state. Now that this door is close to firmly shut, he has set his sights on another area of historical Ottoman power, which is the Middle East. Wherever you find Sunni Islamists in the Middle East, you will soon find Türkiye.
Qatar is the other sponsor. Because, let us be fair, claiming that Qatar is a neutral mediator between Israel and Hamas is utter nonsense. It is a backer of Hamas, plain and simple. Just look at Amir Tamim’s speech in New York. He accused Israel of state terrorism, but has never called October 7th an act of terrorism. What did the Qatari Foreign Ministry release to the public on October 7, 2023? A diatribe against Israel. No mention of terrorism, no mention of Hamas. Its media is laced with virulent anti-Jewish and anti-American articles. Those in the West who enjoy quoting al-Jazeera and al-Araby al-Jadeed – Tamim’s own outlet – should not forget that there is no such thing as freedom of the press in Qatar. If there had been, then criticizing the Amir and the ruling family would be possible, but the 64th article of the Qatari constitution forbids that, explaining that the Amir is inviolable and respect for him obligatory. Furthermore, the Muslim Brotherhood was invited by the ruling family, it did not conquer Qatar. And did the Amir have anything to say about the dire hunger crisis in Yemen, which has lasted for years and was mainly caused by the Houthis? Certainly not, because the Houthis have been given a platform on al-Jazeera.
But while al-Jazeera is Hamas’ mouthpiece, Qatar has allowed its media to launch into scathing criticisms of other countries, including fellow Gulf states. And this should not be forgotten.
The Abraham Accords: Gulf countries strike back
Islamic extremism poses an immediate threat to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia’s Mohammad bin Salman and the UAE’s President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed are keenly aware of this. The rift with Qatar came out into the open during the Gulf crisis in 2017, when Qatar was accused of supporting extremists. However, Qatar managed to weather the storm, because it had a strong diplomatic strategy. Tamim’s father had built the largest military base for the United States at Al Udeid. While Qatari officials will deny this, it serves as an insurance policy. And indeed, it helped. Eventually, the blockade was lifted after pressure from the United States and other countries such as France – Qatar is an important source of investment. But then the Abraham Accords arrived in 2020: a diplomatic bombshell in the Middle East.
I remember the first part of the accords, it surprised me completely. Full diplomatic relations with the UAE and Bahrain. The Palestinians were sidestepped and the reaction of the leadership was to be expected: rage. Mahmoud Abbas raged from Ramallah, Hamas from Gaza. It tried to use an Arab guilt trip, but Palestinians for once should start applying some self-criticism. What did Yasser Arafat do after President Anwar al-Sadat made the courageous move of making peace with Israel? Launch into diatribes. But what did the same Arafat do when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait? Pay him a visit and congratulate him. And what did Palestinians in Nablus do when Saddam fired SCUD missiles on Saudi Arabia? Celebrate in the streets. Prudent? Certainly not. And who are Hamas’ allies? Qatar, the Houthis – who fought Saudi Arabia and the UAE – Türkiye, and Iran -which occupies three islands claimed by the UAE. You see what I mean.
The following Negev Summit was interesting, too. To me, the speech of UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed was exceptional. He went above and beyond, a truly impressive oration. That was a sign. In addition, Abdullah bin Zayed has repeatedly issued strong warnings about Islamic extremism. And, finally, let us not forget one important detail. The UAE works closely with Saudi Arabia. Without the latter’s consent, its entry into the Abraham Accords would not have been possible.
The UAE: remarkably robust ties
After the signing of the Abraham Accords, ties with the UAE took off in an unprecedented way. A flurry of agreements were signed, unlike anything seen before. Emirati airlines offered direct connections from Tel Aviv to Dubai and Israeli tourists, tens of thousands of them, visited the Gulf state. Then came October 7th.
Hamas’ brutal terror invasion led to a destructive war which Gaza had never seen before. This war that has continued for nearly two years has caused Israel considerable damage in the West, so imagine what it does to Israel’s new Arab partners in the region. Yet, the UAE has maintained ties with Israel. Its ambassador was not recalled and, while officials were fiercely critical of Israel’s conduct, they chose their words carefully. On October 8th, 2023, the UAE Foreign Ministry specifically criticized Hamas in a statement. Last year at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the UAE criticized Israel, but it was not the main focus of its speech. And this year, Emirati envoy Lana Nusseibeh criticized Israel but also reiterated the UAE’s condemnation of extremist ideologies. Also, she did not accuse Israel of genocide, something Amir Tamim already did last year. During this war many Western airlines shut down operations. Who continued to fly to Israel? Emirati airlines. When Netanyahu addressed the General Assembly and 77 countries boycotted his speech, who attended and remained seated? The United Arab Emirates. This war has turned the majority of Emirati public opinion against Israel and yet the leadership forges on. That takes courage.
And yet, the Doha strike complicated matters further. The strike failed, breached the sovereignty of a Gulf mediator which had not attacked Israel, and killed a Qatari national. The UAE and all countries in the region had to act and, ostensibly, close ranks. On top of that, Netanyahu continued to openly flirt with annexation to placate his far-right coalition partners, but remember what the UAE said to defend its entry into the Abraham Accords five years ago: it had successfully taken annexation off the table. So, when Lana Nusseibeh gave an interview to the Times of Israel explaining that annexation was a red line for the UAE, that was not a threat; it was a distress call.
Trump’s peace plan
The New York Declaration reads like a list of demands directed at Israel – the United Arab Emirates was not involved in that effort. It was a grand PR moment for President Emmanuel Macron who needed a win, considering flagging domestic support. Whenever politicians fail at home, they try to score points abroad. But President Trump’s peace plan is different. It contains points that align with Israel’s interests. Granted, there is certainly room for criticism, but it is a definite improvement compared to Macron’s vision. More surprisingly, Trump has managed to get everyone on board. Qatar received an apology from Netanyahu, Erdogan was positive, and around the world support was voiced. Granted, support from the likes of Qatar and Türkiye is surprising, but some details are interesting. Who offered Netanyahu an update about Trump’s plan? The United Arab Emirates. Tony Blair has returned to the fore, who is known to enjoy good relations with Netanyahu. His ties with the United Arab Emirates go back years and include consultancy fees paid to his Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. It remains to be seen if he could succeed this time. Also, Lana Nusseibeh argued in New York that the UAE has been the largest supplier of humanitarian aid to Gazans during this war. It has delivered this aid by coordinating with Israel, of course. One of the reasons, obviously, is to counter Qatari influence, a rival in the Middle East.
The UAE: an important influence
The fact that Trump has managed to secure the support of allies in the Middle East, puts Hamas in a bind. While it could enjoy the diplomatic damage Israel was incurring, the tables seem to have turned overnight. And Netanyahu agrees to a plan that is supported by Arab countries in the region. In a way, the Doha strike has been turned into an opportunity for diplomacy. It seems likely that Hamas will reject the plan, but Arab pressure is mounting – even from Qatar, apparently. One thing seems certain after two years of war, though. Israel has an important partner in the Middle East and its name is the United Arab Emirates.
