The Upending? Are the Israelis on the Outside Looking In

Events over the past week would suggest a sudden but clear turn of priorities for the Trump Administration regarding its Middle Eastern connections and evolving interests.

Recent actions provide evidence that a shift away from Jerusalem may be underway. Bloomberg News frames the case for what maybe an abrupt change in US Middle East policy. Looking more deeply, here is the unfolding storyline.

The President’s May 6^th deal with the Houthis in Yemen failed to include any protections for the Israelis, as evidenced by that terrorist group’s continuous assault on Israeli air space.

The decision by Hamas to negotiate with Washington directly over the release of the last American hostage known to be alive would leave Israel on the outside.

The continuation of Iranian-American negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program is taking place, without Israeli participation or input.

Finally, the President’s trip this week to Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Qatar would appear to be more about US trade and investment opportunities than concerns regarding the Abrahamic Accord or other policy matters that might bring Israel closer to the political and financial centers of the Arab world. One may wonder if the President is receiving messages from his hosts concerning their unhappiness and concerns in connection with Israel’s management of the Gaza conflict as well as its current policies directed toward West Bank Palestinians.

One should take note of last week’s hastily arranged visit by the Prime Minister’s top advisor Ron Dermer to Washington, taking place “amid reports of strains in coordination between the U.S. and Israel.”

Is it possible that the Administration found agreement with Tom Friedman’s recent column, where the journalist offered the following critical perspective of the Netanyahu government:

The notion that Israel has a government that is no longer behaving as an American ally, and should not be considered as such, is a shocking and bitter pill for Israel’s friends in Washington to swallow — but swallow it they must.

At times, lesser political powers assume that their influence and access is beyond reproach. Even with a Republican President, there are limits that even the current government in Jerusalem must come to realize. It may well be too soon to fully appreciate the meaning of these unfolding events. Nonetheless, anything that appears to signal a potential policy change immediately takes on a degree of heightened uncertainty, both in Israel and among the Jewish State’s supporters in the United States.

It is important to note that such diplomatic patterns of disruption and distress involving Washington and Jerusalem have taken place during prior administrations.  Dissatisfaction over Israeli actions or policies has angered American Presidents in the past, just as interpersonal tensions among leaders have served to disrupt this historic connection.

Whether this moment ought to be seen as merely a temporary hick up to this relationship between the United States and Israel or whether it might portend a more definitive diplomatic transition by the Trump White House, this particular set of political scenarios ought to be carefully appreciated as nation states monitor how this new administration maneuvers and plays on the international stage and deals with both its friends and adversaries.