Before beginning, I want to state clearly that Israel is an ally to USA, a friend, or family.
Israel appreciates everything done by USA, they love co-training, and coordination actions, want to help and contribute, and unequivocally love USA. No matter who the USA leadership is.
In addition, Israel does not want conflict or war, and are willing for status quo, in turn for peace or ‘tolerable’ aggressions. Israel is not unreasonable, and they are practical and logical to what the realities of this region has, or offers.
As an analyst, I have been following the progression of events of the USA/Iranian negotiations very closely, particularly since I live permanently in the Middle East.
And, I must add that I believe with nearly 100% certainty, that the Israelis are done with past, present or future USA promises, guarantees, or agreements, and will monitor Iranian talks and negotiations closely.
Plus, these are perilous times, even if conjecture, but behavior patterns would give credence. I will explain why.
Since the early to mid-2000s, Israel has had USA intervention against Israeli preemptive strikes, protective action, against the Iranian nuclear facilities, because of USA pressure and USA promises of funding, equipment, and protection.
In the past Israel has bent, given in, adjusted, and made all the concessions to the ‘enemy’, and ‘potential peace partners’, despite full knowledge the USA cannot act in time to protect a massive, coordinated, and/or nuclear strike against Israel, based on Israel’s geographical size and position in the Middle East, surrounded by hostiles, and Iran preparing to go nuclear.
Furthermore, despite both the USA’s Republican and Democrat Party presidential administration’s agreements, and the Oslo Accords, Israel has not been able to ‘depend’ on harmonious, steady policies, treaties, promises, or unwavering strategies, that encompass a full ‘protective shield’ against the obliteration of Israel from regional enemies, and against enemies seeking nuclear weapons. Which has added tremendously to the stresses and suspicion that governments, including their best friend and ally USA, are not serious in protecting Israel. Rather, merely providing or accomplishing the least resistance in maintaining, their, the foreign governments, interests in the Middle East.
In other words, from an Israeli perspective, the Middle East issue is entirely about the individual Israelis’ self-preservation, and Jewish State survival. For everyone else, it’s all about foreign-domestic and Middle East regional economics, oil flow, minimal terror abroad, putting off the inevitable nuclear Iran, and not ‘rock-the-boat’ in the Middle East as long as it doesn’t affect the ‘west’ or western interests.
Therefore, these decades of changing USA government administrations, which nearly always include a shift, change or about face, on Middle East terms, has had a crushing mental effect on Israelis who need consistency for planning, protection and sanity. And the unknown, or inconsistencies, every four to eight years, has had dramatic Israeli military and political ramifications of looming jeopardy, along with added stresses to Israeli population lifestyle.
The phenomenon of unpredictable outcomes of promises, guidelines, agreements, deals and treaties of peace and stability from organizations and governments, then ensuing menaces, nuclear threats, chaos and death, can be illustrated as torture, then brief rest, then torture again, and repeat.
This, and the multiple-generational-effect it has inflicted on Israelis, along with other Israeli behavioral, geographic threats, and endless terror factors, is why many Israelis live as if today-is-the-last-day-of-life, or life to the fullest, which can, and has, in many cases, given the Israeli a ‘bad reputation’ of a notorious ‘party animal’ both in Israel and abroad.
And they, Israel, has had enough.
For Israel has learned the hard way via broken or altered agreements and/or administration policy changes and promises, worldwide antisemitism, coupled with much loss and death, that they cannot depend on anyone, but themselves.
As I have mentioned in my analytic reports, and some articles, Israel has entirely defeated and infiltrated Iran’s defenses.
At the same time, it is almost certain, during the last few decades and years, Israel has found a way to fool or defeat USA, Russian, Syrian, and other’s surveillance and defense systems, and ‘upgraded’ F-35, F-15I, and F-16s software, so that they, Israel, can attack Iran alone, and in secret, and along with their nuclear triad, if necessary.
USA, Russia, Europe, and others, will know according to a scenario such as this; the split second after ‘bombs away’ when Israel notifies everyone for war preparations, and after radar and surveillance picks up the Israeli submarine sea to ground missile launches.
Iran will know when their survivors smell the sulfur, nitrate and a peculiar ozone, chlorine or metallic smell or taste of radiation.
Based on much commonly known data, and what I have already written about, and behavior patterns, and more than usual preparation; any decision taken by USA which endangers Israel, which includes the survival of a Jewish State, to freely worship Judaism without prejudice or assault – will result in some kind of Israeli countermeasure of protection. And it could be sooner than later.
Indications are; 2021 is the beginning of the countdown, the beginning of the ‘end’. Additionally, only Israel knows of the ‘ending date’, and when that extends to.
Likely associated with that is what Iran and USA do next. Time and action are now the factors. And never forget, for Israel, this exact time in history, these present moments, are solely, solidly, exclusively and concretely, about saving their lives, religion and country. Period.
Anyone projecting another opinion – other than the verified fact of Israel’s unmovable fortitude to stay alive, safe and protect Judaism, and what they, Israel, will do, and the monumental extents Israel will go, to protect this right – is delusional.
There is an exceedingly elevated degree, no matter what Israel publicly says, that Israel will no longer tolerate anything that threatens to destroy their way of life. I cannot emphasize this enough. To disregard this firmly entrenched, historical, proven behavior pattern, is pure recklessness. And a substantiated recipe for imminent ruthless regional combat.
However, it is not about war, killing, or annihilating Iran. Israel could have done that many times over the past decades, and did not! It’s about Israel’s acceptance and survival as a Jewish State.
It is gravely unfortunate that Iran does not know this, believe this, or accept this corroborated fact.
Nevertheless, Israel may continue for a short time with conventional means of warfare either limited and clandestine, but highly likely it won’t remain in that manner if Iran sustains their nuclear warfare quest or nears the Israeli Red Line.
Iran will never become nuclear weaponized in this age of Israel’s nuclear triad, experience in wars, training, and military might.
Consequently, whatever Washington’s and Iran’s decisions are in these next few days, weeks or maybe a month or two, will produce dramatic ramifications.
They will either determine safe, status quo, or enact an Israeli chain reaction most likely resulting in unmentionable chaos and brutal regional warfare, that may turn nuclear if Israel is on the threshold of failure, enemy missile saturation, and coordinated enemy ground assault. Then, the conflict will engulf, thru Iranian proxy, USA, Europe and North Africa.
Thus, the USA & Iranian catch-22; what will Israel do if they are convinced their survival is breached?
Also, keep in mind, if Iran suspects a large-scale Israeli attack, that non-technical armies or groups (aligned with Iran), and historical militaries in this region, and Europe, preferred to fight, or fought, beginning in late spring till autumn. And sometimes, these patterns don’t change.
It’s not brain-surgery that USA must work in parallel and balance Israel’s security and Iran’s needs.
And, I must comment here, that I believe USA missed a massive opportunity after Iran released the US Hostages in 1981. I know the safe return of our citizens was paramount but USA could have defused or further transformed history by, at minimum, a kind gesture of public thanks or gift to Iran. Even at a much later date.
Instead, Iran was isolated and one could say globally humiliated because no thankful recognition was reciprocated for Iran’s gesture to the Reagan Administration (Iran allegedly shunning the Carter Administration after the signing of the Algiers Accords), and relations remained combative and tense. Anyone who knows or has studied Persian or Middle East culture, including Shia Islam, knows that no genuine appreciation, or no intended reciprocation, or humiliation, is horrid and grossly insulting.
Persian and Middle East culture, which includes Iran, is recognized by many as the ‘cradle of civilization’, and their world contributions are probably without number. They are a noble people, and respect honesty, bravery, poetry, compassion, generosity, religion, family and tradition. And after thousands of years, this behavior has not altered.
Only we, have changed. And USA must question their own tactics; why would Iran change their demands and actions when for decades terror and kidnapping have worked? Which Middle Eastern inhabitants claim, terror campaigns, they learned from World War I and II Europeans and Americans.
Studying the good, honorable human traits of Iran, their people, culture and Persian history and contributions, may be a good start. In tandem, which is necessary, of traits relating to terror and threats.
They, Iran, and the Middle East, still deal one-on-one, and have millennium of ‘reading’ individual’s eye pupils, face, posture, attitude, voice and expressions, and human mannerisms. They know when you are truthful, interested, impressed, sincere, or not. And they despise superficial characteristics, which Americans and Europeans frequently and unwittingly display.
They know value. And the gift they receive immediately tells them whether love and thought went into picking the gift, and if friendship or negotiations are serious. Old-fashion preferences are still many times their favorite; a unique or historic firearm (including USA and British rifles, pistols and shotguns), fine-crafted swords, daggers or knives), ancient Koran, Persian or Islamic books or tablets, thoroughbred horses or falcons, precious metals and jeweled encrusted noble creatures as the lion or falcon, and ultra-fine clothes.
There is another fact in the Middle East, male dominance and ‘explosive’ testosterone.
But Gertrude Bell broke that ‘glass ceiling’ in the 1800s and early 1900s with her Middle Eastern experiences and studies, sincerity, bravery, respect and love of the culture, and knowing when, in an exclusively male-dominant society, to exert aggression or femineity. Gertrude displayed the essential characteristics of a true diplomat, especially in that volatile, dangerous period of Middle East history.
Finally, I have a three-part question and respectful contemplation for Iran and Iranian Imams, leadership, military and intellects.
Would you directly attack USA or Russia or China? And would you announce attacking USA or Russia or China, before attacking?
Of course not; as this would be Iranian suicide, and an end to Iranian leadership, military, population, culture, and most likely permanent, total nuclear destruction of Iran.
If the homeland of Iran was attacked, wouldn’t you use every person, means and weapons available?
Of course, this would be expected of any country in order to defend their land and lives (Israel would too).
Now I politely ask: why would you, Iran, publicly announce attacking a nuclear triad, a mini-superpower, 70 plus continuous years of combat and combat-related conflict and clandestine special operations abroad, highly experienced military, in which nearly every citizen has been in military service and trained, have plans against an Iranian attack for decades, unstoppable preempt and stealth planned strikes, resolutely disregard criminal court charges (due to self-preservation), and are ready for war with you, Iran, and all your proxies and aligned-countries?
As a person that has culturally studied, respected, loved, permanently live, and traveled in the Middle East for decades, and based on more details I outlined in a prior article, “Middle East 2021 war expectations”, I must admit, I am still vastly mystified by the two worse-kept-secrets in the Middle East.
- Israel is a current, nuclear superpower. Even deemed by Arab and Muslim countries to be so.
- Iran, (Persia) historical known for their astonishing, extraordinary wisdom, education and foresight, threatens to annihilate a nuclear weaponized Israel, and is fully expected to attempt to do so.
Which in a way, I guess, is the Israeli & Iranian catch-22.
In ending, if Israel, and Iran with their proxies and aligned countries go to war (in addition to the rumored Russian nuclear suitcase bombs that Iran reportedly obtained in the late 1980s or early 90s on the black-market after the Soviet Union dissolve) — may God truly have mercy on us all in the Middle East, and various worldwide locations — for it will be a bloodbath.
That is reality.