The Weakest of Allies

Arguably, the United States is the most powerful nation on Earth. This country has the most sophisticated military and cyber tools on the planet. However, possessing the most advanced weapons only counts if the country is willing to use them.

Throughout the Obama-Biden administrations, the US has attempted to keep out of any war in the Middle East. Having failed in Iraq, being both bogged down in Afghanistan and frustrated by the Houthi attacks in the Red and Arabian Seas, the US has refused to do more than to respond ‘proportionally’ to the provocations and threats of Iran and its proxies. Herein lies the crux of the dilemma for the State Department which policies as dictated by the administration in the White House insures that the United States will be and is seen as a paper tiger in the region.

Beginning with the blown red-line that Barack Obama issued over the Syrian use of chemical weapons, the US has attempted to cope diplomatically with the rise of Iranian power and its relentless drive to acquire nuclear weaponry. Although the Biden administration was on record from the start proclaiming that Iran would never be permitted to reach its nuclear aspirations, to date, that red-line also appears to be nothing more than bluster.

Now Israel waits, debating with itself whether to preempt a promised Iranian attack that is in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s elimination. Meanwhile, a missile attack in Iraq has again injured US personnel and the Houthis have actively attacked more shipping in the Arabian Sea. The US’s responses thus far have appeared to be tepid. On the other hand, Israel’s response to a Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv which killed one Israeli was to take out a significant portion of the Houthi controlled port city of Hodeidah. Israel does not hesitate to strike with overwhelming force where the United States maintains the lowest level of engagement, implying to its enemies in the Middle East a kind of statement that whispers, “Please, don’t hurt us.”

One does not have to be a Neo-Con to understand and assert how ineffectual the US’s unwillingness to assert its military power is and the lack of effectiveness its Middle East posture has become. One also does not have to be a supporter of Donald Trump to cognize the message that the killing of Qasem Soleimani drove home.

The key to understanding what works and gains credence in the Middle East are not verbal threats but the actual use of power, and until or unless officials in the administration and the State Department get this, the region will become not less but more dangerous. At this very moment, the US is scrambling diplomatically to avert whatever Iran is contemplating. The clock is ticking. However, a US preemptive strike would send a clear, definitive message to the Iranians to stand down or else. But anyone who is expecting such action from the United States is clearly delusional.