There is no consensus against a Palestinian state

As the US presidential transition approaches, indications are multiplying that the incoming Trump administration will seek a regional accord with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Building on the Abraham Accords and the work of the Biden team, the deal would include a defense treaty between the United States and Saudi Arabia, normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

To preempt the process, Simcha Rothman, chairman of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, announced hearings on a law that would establish a substantial new obstacle in the way of Israel achieving a negotiated solution with the Palestinians. Sponsored by the Land of Israel caucus, the Israel Security Law would expand the scope of a 2014 Basic Law that mandates a national referendum or legislative supermajority on any negotiated agreement that cedes land in Israel, the Golan Heights, or East Jerusalem. The proposed change would extend the law to include the West Bank. According to a statement by the caucus, the effect of the legislation, if passed, would be to “prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state in any future arrangement.”

In a joint statement with caucus co-chairs Yuli Edelstein and Limor Son Har-Melech, Rothman declared that “there is broad consensus in Israel society” that a Palestinian state must not be established. Asked whether the proposed law was meant to prevent a Trump administration deal, Rothman said Israeli officials must “reflect to the world the deep consensus” in Israeli society against the possibility of a Palestinian state.

But is there really any such consensus in Israeli society?

Following the October 7th Hamas onslaught, during which a terrorist army invaded Israel and killed about 1,200 people, support among Israelis for a two-state solution plummeted. According to Tel Aviv University’s Peace Index, support for “negotiations for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority” dropped from 57% in July 2022 to 33% in November 2023.

The drop is hardly surprising. The attacks revealed Israel’s acute vulnerability and reinforced the feeling among Israelis that the Jewish people can only survive in the land of Israel through military force.

In the year since, Israeli politicians, public figures and news media have been on a war footing. Nonetheless, the Israeli public has moved in a more moderate direction. In Tel Aviv University’s November 2024 Peace Index survey, the share of the public supporting negotiations with the Palestinian Authority climbed back up to 43%.

Other recent surveys have explored the willingness of the Israeli public to consider a Palestinian state in the context of a regional peace accord. Such a question is particularly relevant to the contemporary political context, in which the US government has identified a regional pact involving Saudi Arabia and Israel as a top priority. In an August 2024 survey, the Mitvim Institute found that more Israelis supported (44%) rather than opposed (37%) a regional accord, including “normalization with Saudi Arabia, establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state not under Hamas control, and a regional defense pact led by the United States.”

The Hebrew University of Jerusalem’s aChord Institute posed a similar question in October, 2024. The survey asked respondents whether Israel should pursue a diplomatic arrangement, supported by the United States, that includes the “establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for recognition by Arab states of the State of Israel and normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states.” On that question, the Israeli public divided quite evenly, with 47% in support and 52% opposed (a difference that is within the survey’s margin of error).

The surveys are representative of the Israeli, public including Jews and Arabs. Some argue that Jewish opinion should be considered separately when it comes to issues of national security. Proponents of that view will need to contend with the fact that Jewish Israeli opinion is also divided, albeit not down the center. According to Tel Aviv University’s most recent Peace Index survey, which was fielded in November 2024, 35% of Jewish Israelis supported negotiations for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

In the spirit of the 2018 Basic Law which defines Israel as a “nation-state of the Jewish people,” Rothman and his colleagues may also want to consider the opinions of Jews outside of Israel. In recent surveys, Jews in the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States continue to support a two-state solution, often by significant majorities.

And it is not just surveys that document this position. The largest and most influential Jewish organizations in the United States have made explicit support for two-state solution a fundamental policy position. This includes Jewish Federations of North America — the closest thing American Jews have to a national representative organization — as well as AIPAC, the American Jewish Committee, the Anti-Defamation League, and the Reform and Conservative movements.

Israel’s ruling coalition has the right to try to shape national security and diplomatic policies during its term in office. The government should avoid taking actions, however, that hamstring future governments. They should certainly not do so based on inaccurate claims about a national “consensus.” There is no consensus among Israelis to prevent the formation of a Palestinian state in the future, and none will emerge, so long as Israelis remain committed to keeping the state Jewish and democratic.