This Fall 42% of Israel’s Likud voters may decide to back a different party
The exact date of Israel’s Fall general election has yet to be set, but the entire political system is already gearing up and gathering momentum, much of it reactive to the findings of opinion polls. The first major move on the ever-changing chessboard of Israeli politics has come from Naftali
Bennett and Yair Lapid, who previously served as prime ministers under a rotation agreement in what became known as the “exchange government” formed in 2021. They have announced that they will run together as a single party in the forthcoming election.
In principle, this move is aimed at creating greater clarity by presenting a centrist bloc as a viable alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.
A Israeli Poll found that 42% of Likud voters are weighing or have decided to back a different party in the fall. They say the two chief reasons for leaving Likud is failure to prevent October 7 Hamas invasion, followed by efforts to exempt UltraOrthodox Jews from army service.
Even if only half of the 42% of Israelis who voted for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party in the previous election are either considering or have decided to back a different party in the November Knesset elections it will change everything.
The poll also showed 10% of those who backed Likud in 2022 will support the Together slate former prime minister Naftali Bennett formed with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid; 6% will vote for former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party; and 4% will back Avigdor Liberman’s secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party.
Asked whether Netanyahu should run in the next election, 64% of those who voted Likud in the last elections said yes, while 30% said he should retire.
Asked if they are satisfied with the conduct of Likud’s current slate of lawmakers, 55% said they were not, compared to 38% who said they are.
Another poll, the Zman poll conducted May 6-7 on a representative sample of 500 Jewish and Arab adults, with a margin of error of 4.4% found that the pro-Netanyahu bloc, composed of parties that are currently in the government, would win 50 seats, according to Zman. Five of the remaining seats would go to Ra’am — an Islamist party led by Mansour Abbas — and the last four would go to anti-Zionist, Arab-majority Hadash-Ta’al.
Ra’am (United Arab List), led by Mansour Abbas, is an Islamist, conservative party in Israel representing Palestinian citizens, which made history by joining an Israeli coalition government in 2021. As of 2026, the party is shifting toward a broader base, opening to Jewish candidates and separating from the Islamic Movement to boost legitimacy.
In 2021, Abbas became the first Arab party leader in decades to sign a deal to join an Israeli governing coalition, specifically that of Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. The party focuses on improving socioeconomic conditions for Arab citizens, addressing rising crime, and addressing housing issues, often prioritizing practical gains over ideological conflicts.
Party Leader, Mansour Abbas, a dentist by profession, is known for his pragmatic approach and has stated his social conservatism sometimes aligns him more with religious Jewish parties than with the Israeli left.
