Tic-Tac-Toe

What’s Really Happening in Syria? A Glimpse into the Middle East’s Future. Who Is the New President and Does He Turn Toward Peace?

In the shadow of reports, tweets, and discussions about expanding the Abraham Accords, commentators and journalists are busy with speculation about additional countries that might join the peace initiatives, normalization (a word relevant only in the Middle East), or some agreement.

Syria’s name emerges as the leading candidate to be next in line to sign some kind of agreement with Israel. President Trump has announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria, optimistic tension is at its peak.

Syria is being led and shaped these days by a multifaceted figure who embodies the face of the Middle East and its direction. Who is Syria’s president and how did he become the hot topic in Middle Eastern and international politics?

The Man with Two Names

Syria’s president is known by two different names: Abu Mohammed al-Julani – his underground nickname from the days of ISIS and al-Qaeda. “Al-Julani” refers to the Golan region from which his family fled after the area’s conquest by the IDF in 1967. His second name, given by his parents, is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Al-Julani or al-Sharaa? Who is Syria’s president?

Ahmed al-Sharaa was born in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to the al-Sharaa family – a well-known Syrian family. He began his path in al-Qaeda in Iraq, an organization that eventually became ISIS, and was even imprisoned for five years by the Americans in Abu Ghraib prison. Al-Julani was sent by al-Qaeda Iraq back to his homeland Syria to establish an al-Qaeda branch. He founded Jabhat al-Nusra, an extremist rebel organization while having a $10 million American bounty on his head.

The Civil War: A Deadly Game of Tic-Tac-Toe

Jabhat al-Nusra also known as El Nusra, a Sunni Islamic religious organization, fought against ISIS – also a Sunni Islamic religious organization – for leadership of the Sunni population. While they fought each other, they fought together – Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS – against the Free Syrian Army, which was weak and secular. Each of the mentioned organizations is actually an umbrella for dozens of organizations, militias, and families fighting among themselves due to the power vacuum created in Syria following the civil war.

Against the Sunnis, Syria’s Alawite president Bashar al-Assad contended with Iranian support, with the most effective Iranian proxy at the time – Hezbollah – and with Russian backing.

Al-Julani eventually broke away from al-Qaeda and changed his organization’s name from Jabhat al-Nusra to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, and later changed the organization’s name to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, known in the West as HTS.

The Syrian civil war was essentially a game of Tic-Tac-Toe. It was a war between Sunni and Shia over territorial continuity. As long as Assad, with Iranian support and its Shia proxies, was in control, there was a Shia corridor from Iran in the east through Iraq, which is majority Shia and contains Iranian Shia proxies, through Syria to Lebanon, which was effectively controlled by the Shia Hezbollah organization. This Shia corridor was called the “Shia Crescent.” If Syria’s Sunni majority had seized power, a Sunni corridor would have been created from Sunni Turkey through Syria, Jordan, the Palestinians, to Saudi Arabia or Egypt. A deadly game of Tic-Tac-Toe – with Syria at the center of the board.

The Chain of Events: From October 7th to Assad’s Fall

Following October 7th, Israel found itself in a violent confrontation with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, which saw Hezbollah as a far more dangerous adversary than Hamas, managed to defeat Hezbollah, eliminate Hassan Nasrallah who had been one of the symbols of resistance to Israel in recent decades, and empty the organization of its threatening purpose against Israel from the north. Additionally, Israel succeeded in striking Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq, effectively dismantling the Shia Crescent.

In the Tic-Tac-Toe game, a vacuum was created in the center of the board. Al-Julani, with Turkish support from the north, quickly and efficiently took advantage of the vacuum. On November 27th, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, led by al-Julani, spearheaded several organizations in an efficient and rapid operation. Assad, without Iranian and Hezbollah support, was powerless. On December 8, 2024, al-Julani conquered Damascus, and Assad fled the country, ending his family’s rule.

From Jihadist Dress Style to Herzl-Style or Middle-Aged Hipster Fashion

When the Western world suddenly began taking interest in al-Julani and his organization HTS, al-Julani was careful to return to his childhood name, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Similarly, the jihadist attire of camouflage uniforms and white keffiyeh worn in the unique style of Osama bin Laden was replaced with a luxury suit and well-groomed beard like the best Western hipsters.

Missed In Translation

The meaning of the organization name ISIS الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام is: The Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham

The meaning of the organization name Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham هيئة تحرير الشام is: The Committee for the Liberation of al-Sham

Many in the West interpreted the letter S in ISIS and HTS as representing Syria, when in fact it represents the concept of al-Sham. Al-Sham is an Arabic term referring to the entire region north of the Hejaz (a region in western Saudi Arabia) including Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and any potential Palestinian state. The use of the letter S as Syria or al-Sham is not significant to someone living in Canada or Sweden, but for us residents of al-Sham, this is a critical distinction. If it’s about an organization for Syria’s liberation, it doesn’t concern me, but if it’s about an organization for al-Sham’s liberation, it includes me and my family, and as a Jew, I’m concerned about the meaning of that kind of liberation.

The Middle East’s New Politician

Since December 2024, it has been interesting to follow Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Western wardrobe for interviews he gave to Western media. It was interesting to follow his meetings with regional leaders in an attempt to understand who will support Syria. Al-Julani, as a shrewd politician, has met with regional leaders: with Erdogan, Turkey’s president; with Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince; with Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani; and an historic meeting with President Trump as well.

Meanwhile, evidence from Syria shows recruitment of jihadists (some ISIS members) to Syrian security forces, including Uyghurs (Chinese Muslims), abuse by al-Sharaa’s men against the Alawite community, particularly women. Posters throughout the country calling for women to dress modestly and even guidelines on permitted swimwear types at public beaches.

Some Open Questions

In conclusion, we must ask: Who is Syria’s leader? Abu Mohammed al-Julani or Ahmed al-Sharaa? Is the suit he has been wearing recently a costume to endear himself to the West, or a change of orientation and ideology? Who will rebuild Syria? Qatar and Turkey, or Saudi Arabia and the UAE? Will the media network that shapes Syrian public opinion be Qatar’s inciting Al Jazeera or Saudi/Emirati Al Arabiya network? And since this is a Tic-Tac-Toe game board, does the direction Syria is heading in, reflect the entire Middle East?

Time will tell.