Jaime Kardontchik

Timeline for an Arab-Israeli durable peace

In my previous article [1], I described the short-term goals that Israel should have in the present war with Hamas. This phase can be finalized by the end of winter (small level military operations north of Wadi Gaza will continue for at least a year). By February-March 2024 the new map of the Gaza Strip will be: north of Wadi Gaza under Israeli sovereignty, south of Wadi Gaza under Palestinian sovereignty, and exclusively dependent on Egypt for the satisfaction of its basic necessities (electricity, water, and humanitarian aid, the latter through the Rafah crossing.)

The Gaza Strip undone: north of Wadi Gaza under Israeli rule, south of Wadi Gaza under Palestinian rule, and heavily dependent on Egypt for all its needs. (Map source: The Central Intelligence Agency of the US. Additional text and arrows added by the author)

The future of Gaza (south of Wadi Gaza)

Regime change cannot be imposed from above (the experiences in Afghanistan and Libya are quite conclusive): At the end of this war Hamas will stay as the ruler of Gaza, south of Wadi Gaza. However, as the consequences of the war will sink in the Palestinian population, especially the loss of the territory north to Wadi Gaza, I expect that the Palestinians will conclude that the rule of Hamas has been a catastrophe for them and they will rise and depose Hamas. It might be a slow process. It could take a whole generation. Lately talk about an international peace force to accelerate this process is wishful thinking: No Arab government will be willing to participate in it and fight Hamas (and the Islamic Jihad.)

Establishment of peaceful relations between Saudi-Arabia and Israel

This is the next phase of the road to Arab-Israeli peace. This phase should come to the fore with the end of the major military operations north of Wadi Gaza, by the end of winter. This new phase must be finalized – and approved by Congress – by September 2024, before the November 2024 presidential elections in the US. Both the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel are interested in its success (each for its own, partially overlapping, reasons.) Peaceful relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be a game changer in the dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Back to the 242 UN resolution from November 1967

The 2-state Oslo Accords signed in 1993 were a sharp turn from the 242 UN resolution and led to nowhere (except for three nice Nobel Peace prizes bequeathed to Arafat, Rabin, and Peres.) It is time to return to the 242. This means the reunification of Jordan with the (demilitarized) West Bank.

The Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine, with Jordan and the West Bank as its constitutive parts (Map source: Central Intelligence Agency, USA)

The 1993 Oslo-Accords have been proven again-and-again to be a complete failure, due to the irredentist approach of the Palestinian leadership and its claim to the “right of return” of millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants to Israel proper, within Israel’s pre-June 1967 armistice borders. The purported support of the Palestine Authority of the 2-state Oslo-type-solution is only a public relations lip-service, in the pursue of an actual 2-stage solution, the latter 2nd stage being the return of millions of Palestinian refugees and their descendants to Israel proper, within its pre-June 1967 borders.

A return to the original intent of the 242 UN Security Council resolution of November 1967 is needed: the West Bank should be reincorporated to Jordan, with this re-union perhaps renamed as the “Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine”, as proposed elsewhere [2]

The political solution should include addressing the refugee problem: Palestinian refugees and Jewish refugees, both victims of the Arab-Israeli conflict. An international aid program – similar to the Marshall Plan for Europe after World War II – should be established to develop the economy of Jordan and integrate the Palestinians in the Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine. And the international community should also address a just resolution of the claims of the almost one-million Jewish refugees, who were ethnically cleansed from the Arab countries. For more details see [3].



[1] Jaime Kardontchik, “Defeat Hamas and respect the rules of war”, published on October 24, 2023, in the “Times of Israel”:

[2] Ali Shihabi, “The Hashemite Kingdom of Palestine”. Ali Shihabi is a close confident of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. His article was published in the Saudi Royal Family-owned news outlet “Al-Arabiya News”, on June 8, 2022:

[3] Jaime Kardontchik, “The root of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the path to peace” (November 2023 edition). The book can be downloaded (pdf) for free at:

(It is also available at Amazon)


About the Author
Jaime Kardontchik has a PhD in Physics from the Technion, Israel Institute of Technology. He lives in the Silicon Valley, California.
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