To Jewish-American voters: If not now, when?

The results of two very recent polls are, to my mind, startling. One poll indicates that 71% of Jewish-American voters in 7 swing States favor Kamala Harris; the other poll reports that, among the 85% of Israelis (both Jews and Arabs) who had an opinion, 68% believed that Donald Trump would better serve Israel’s interests, while 14% believed that Harris would. Thus, Jewish-American voters in pivotal States seemingly will vote for Harris over Trump by a margin of almost 3 to 1, while Israelis believe that Trump is preferable to Harris by a margin of almost 5 to 1.

The poll of Jewish-American voters indicates that only 16% view Israel as the most important election issue. Israel ranked fourth after the future of democracy (which 44% viewed as their top issue), abortion (36%), and inflation and the economy (24%). Thus, it’s not as if a very substantial majority of the Jewish-Americans who were polled disagree with Israelis as to which candidate would be best for Israel.  Rather, a very substantial majority simply don’t much care about Israel.

Beginning at least as early as the days of F.D.R.’s New Deal, a great majority of Jewish-Americans have almost always voted for Democratic candidates. Perhaps F.D.R.’s presidency was the starting-point because he appointed a great many Jews to important posts in his administration. And, because so many voters inherit their political views while they’re growing up around the kitchen table, the pro-Democratic Jewish voter is virtually a stereotype that persists to this day. (I should know; I grew up in such a household and inherited my first political opinions in precisely this way.)

But even if the habits of the average Jewish-American voter haven’t changed over the past many decades, the state of the world has indeed changed—in particular, Israel’s prospects today are very different from what they were as recently as one year ago. One year ago, before October 7, 2023, Israel’s future seemed untroubled, positive, and prosperous. Today, Israel is embroiled in conflicts, none of which were initiated by Israel, on almost every inch of its borders and beyond.

In the south, the IDF is still engaged with the remaining Hamas terrorists. In the north, it is responding to the unprovoked attacks Hezbollah commenced on the day after Hamas invaded Israel. And Israel has twice been attacked by missiles and drones fired by Iran, while other missiles are fired into Israel by the Houthis in Yemen and by enemies in Syria and Iraq.

And yet, despite the perilous present-day circumstances confronting the one and only nation-state of the Jewish people, some 71% of Jewish-American voters in critical States will continue to vote almost reflexively for the Democratic candidate that 68% of Israelis believe would not be best for Israel’s interests. Would it be possible, just for one single election that is being held at a time when Israel will need every bit of help the United States could provide, for Jewish-Americans to suspend their ingrained habits and vote for a Republican rather than a Democrat?  Apparently, the answer is “no”.

The choice between Trump and Harris is viewed by many and, perhaps, even most Americans as extremely unsatisfactory. For many, Trump is a chaotic, self-involved, truth-challenged has-been, while Harris is a perfectly polished albeit completely empty pants-suit who peddles the “politics of joy” while the world careens toward ever-fiercer military confrontations.

Choosing between two such candidates is no fun, most of us will agree. But the three issues that a majority of Jewish-American voters consider more important than the fate of Israel are, I submit, not so clearly ones that bolster the Democratic case.

Is Trump a special danger to democracy? He’s never conceded that he did in fact lose the 2020 election, but when he addressed the rally on January 6th he told the crowd “to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”  Presidential power was in fact peacefully transferred to Biden on Jan. 20, 2021. And ginning up frivolous lawsuits against the leading Republican presidential candidate, as several Democratic prosecutors have done since Trump left office, is not the hallmark of a healthy democracy.

Regarding abortion, 63% of abortions in 2023 were induced by medication, and that number has increased steadily since the drug was approved in 2000. It’s a certainty that that percentage will continue to increase. Medication abortions are, as a practical matter, immune from regulation by Congress or any president, because the relevant drugs can be delivered by the US Postal Service, and it is a federal crime for anyone—up to and including the governor of a State—to interfere with the US mail.

With regard to inflation and the economy, as of May of 2024 the Consumer Price Index had risen 19.4% since the Biden/Harris administration took office, and that aggregate percentage has further increased since May. So much for the Biden/Harris team’s ability to control inflation.

This is a perilous moment for Israel. Hillel asked: “If I am not for myself, who will be for me? If I am only for myself, what am I? And if not now, when?” If Jewish-Americans won’t support the one Jewish nation-state, who will? Moreover, Israel is in fact combating a fanaticism that seeks to eradicate all liberal notions of democracy and individual liberty; the fanatics have no intention of stopping if and when they destroy Israel. In Dearborn, Michigan, people are publicly chanting in Arabic: “Death to Israel, death to America.” Thus, Israel is not defending only itself.  And finally: if not now, when? Jewish-American voters ought to consider that last question very, very carefully.