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Tonight the Likelihood of War in the North Has Increased By 70%

The debate between President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump was poor. President Biden appeared noticeably older, tired, and struggled to articulate his positions coherently. While Trump was his regular lying and manipulative, he was coherent and sharper than Biden.  Unfortunately, President Biden lost the presidency tonight.

There are voices suggesting that this may have been the Democratic Party’s strategy from the outset—to create an opportunity to replace him as the presidential candidate. It’s possible. It’s likely that this scenario will unfold now, with Democrats working to persuade him to step down and exploring other candidates.

Certainly, Vice President Harris would not be able to defeat Trump. The Democrats need a consensus candidate, someone who can unify their support base — someone like Jon Stewart. Good luck to them, and to us, because a Trump presidency would be a catastrophe for the entire world.

Regarding Israel, Biden’s failure in tonight’s debate likely increases the risk of war in the north of Israel by about 70%. Previously, I believed war could be avoided, largely due to American pressure and Biden’s personal efforts to prevent regional conflict. Now, that seems unlikely.

President Biden faces a challenging internal period, and the last thing he and the Democratic Party care about at the moment is the Middle East. The unconditional support from the Biden administration ends, potentially opening the door to conflict.

It’s tragic to consider the “butterfly effect” where the lives of thousands could be devastated due to a televised political debate overseas. But this is the reality.

Israel is ill-prepared for a war with Hezbollah—both in terms of military readiness and the resilience of its home front. The consequences would be severe, with heavy losses likely on both sides. Enough has been written and spoken about that.

All we can do is try and take care of our close family and hope that the government ministries, infrastructure companies, and our security forces have made sufficient preparations for a swift recovery with minimal losses. However, based on my experience with public systems over the last 24 years, I’m far from optimistic.

About the Author
Attorney, former communications director for the Israeli government, lobbyist, strategy, former reporter for Galei Tzahal and Haaretz, former Shaliach to the US, CEO of The Israeli TV & Film Producers Association, Campaign manager for several parties and incumbents. Led several social causes, organizations, causes and unions. Life-long volunteer and student.
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