Trends: What Is Happening and Why?

We are operating in a society where a number of fundamental patterns are reshaping our culture, redefining our economy, and reframing our social norms. Each of these elements has implications for the American Jewish communal system.

As we enter a new year, it reminds us of the importance of understanding how as individuals and as a communal system fit into our broader social, economic and cultural environment. Trends provide us a  context for managing in a period of extraordinary transformation and change.

State of Human Knowledge: We should remind ourselves that until 1900 human knowledge doubled approximately every century. By the end of World War II knowledge was doubling every 25 years. But on average human knowledge is doubling every 13 months. According to IBM, the build out of  the “internet of things” will lead to the doubling of knowledge every 12 hours.

Data on Community, Politics, and the Economy:

The Idea of Community: In one of the more surprising and positive developments, Gallup polling has identified an increase in the perceived importance of “community”. Seen as “extremely important” belief in the value of community rose from 6% (2002) to 18% (2023) over the past 21 years, while the “very important” quotient increased from 26% to 37%.

Loyalty and Society: Correspondingly, we see a countervailing force where pride and patriotism are in decline. Gallup’s measure of pride in being American experienced a decline. “Extremely proud” declined from 55% in 2001 to 45% in 2019, followed by a modest decline to 39% in 2023. The Wall Street Journal reported on the shifting levels of patriotism. For those identifying patriotism as “very important” in 1998 (70%), that number would drop to 61% in 2019 and would dramatically fall to 38% in 2023.

Division and Hate: Various sources are reporting on two corollary factors, political polarization and racial disparity and hate appear to be both accelerating. The deep political divides appear to be intensifying and this will be reflected in the composition of the 119^th Congress.

Politics and Society: Americans hold negative views about government, believing that the “system is rigged” thinking has become an even more dominant part of American culture. “Across the political spectrum, people believe that government can and should be responsive to people’s needs—but that it often isn’t”.

Race and Ethnicity: Racial and ethnic disparities are impacting in all facets of our society including housing, education, wealth, health care, criminal justice, and access to voting. The presence of “hate trends” is particularly disturbing as data points to the continued acceleration of action directed against LGBTQ individuals, Muslims, and Jews.

Technology: Technology continues to be a central factor in altering this nation’s economy. The gig economy is transforming the American workforce, with the rise of freelance and contract work. This phenomenon is in turn reshaping traditional career paths.

Knowledge: Advances with AI will transform not only the work force but also accelerate access to knowledge. The impact of both new knowledge and advanced technologies are likely serve as a multiplier of misinformation and expand the power of the major technology firms.

Work: To thrive in the future of work, businesses must invest in upskilling employees and recruiting talent with tech-focused skills like database modeling and prompt engineering.

Climate: Of all the changes being anticipated, none will be more immediate and significant than climate change.

New Religious Phenomenon: When we examine religious patterns, there are several key outcomes:

The continuing decline of the importance of religion to Americans can be seen as a core trend. Since the 1990s, large numbers of Americans have left Christianity to join the growing ranks of US adults who describe their religious identity as atheist,  religious landscape, leading many people to wonder what the future of religion in America might look like.

A comprehensive religious forecast for 2050 by the Pew Research Center predicts that the global Muslim population will grow at a faster rate than the Christian population – primarily due to the average younger age, and higher fertility rates of Muslims.

A new CNN study suggests that the Muslim population is growing at an accelerated rate, and will more than double from an estimated 3.45 million in 2017 to an estimated 8.1 million in 2050. In the meantime, Muslims are expected to surpass Jews as the second-largest religious group.

Reflections:

The pace and scope of change is both significant and transformative for our society. Our capacity to manage the rapid transformation and acquisition of knowledge will alter both how we think and require a  different understanding of work. Some of the data introduced here would suggest some specific opportunities as well as challenges for minority communities. Mixed reactions to the state of democracy and beliefs about government should be concerning.