Trump Administration’s ADD is Endangering its Peace Plan.
While the implementation of Trump’s 20-point plan for Gaza continues to falter, the president’s “peacemaker” duo– Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner – have moved on to Russia and Ukraine. The transition between two different crisis arenas is illustrative of one of the most problematic characteristics of Trump’s foreign policy: extreme centralization around a handful of advisors, who, instead of dedicating themselves to the resolution of one crisis, automatically move on to dealing with the next one, while the previous one is still far from being resolved. This phenomenon is due to the absence of a systematic and integrated operational framework between government agencies, as was customary in previous administrations.
The deployment of the ISF – the International Stabilization Force in Gaza – has been delayed due to the refusal of Arab and Muslim countries to send soldiers to the Gaza Strip and place them in direct confrontation with Hamas militants. The concern is not only security-related but also political. Without a clear timeline, an agreed-upon mechanism for transferring control in Gaza, or clarifications regarding the “path to a Palestinian state,” as defined in the plan approved by the UN Security Council, no Arab country is willing to be seen as serving foreign interests and certainly not Israeli interests.
The main factor preventing progress is Netanyahu’s insistence on not allowing any Palestinian entity to wield administrative authority in the Gaza Strip. Given the upcoming elections in Israel, Netanyahu will not change his policy without significant pressure from Washington.
Moderate Arab states want close relations with Trump, but they won’t become the executive arm of a move the administration seems to oppose. There is currently no one in Washington investing the necessary diplomatic effort to pressure Israel and enlist Arab partnerships – because the core team has already moved on to the next mission.
This has resulted in the Gaza agreement gaining significant international legitimacy, but its practical components have stagnated. The multinational force has not been formed, the new territorial division remains unclear, the population is effectively being pushed into limited and restricted areas, and there is no clarity regarding the composition of the entity that will ultimately take control of the Gaza Strip.
Meanwhile, Hamas continues consolidating its position, and the IDF continues to wallow in the Gaza quagmire. Since the ceasefire of October 11, approximately 350 Palestinians have been killed and about one thousand have been injured in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, the clashes have not been contained within the borders of the Gaza Strip but have spilled into the West Bank and the Syrian and Lebanese arenas.
In his October speech to the Knesset, President Trump praised envoy Witkoff, saying, “He is also working on the war between Russia and Ukraine – a war that would not have happened had I been president. But it happened, and we could resolve it easily. It would be simpler than what we successfully did here with Israel.”This is the Trumpist logic – the desire “to keep it simple,” to see diplomacy as a real estate deal, and to treat complex conflicts as if they were business negotiations. But international diplomacy is anything but simple. Gaza is not a real estate deal butinvolves a highly complex system of interests that, if not meaningfully invested in and nurtured, will explode in all directions.
Trump’s management style, which concentrates power in the hands of a few loyalists who jump from one arena to another, inherently creates instability.
The United States has significantly more leverage with Netanyahu than it does with Putin. But for these leverages to be operated successfully, consistent attention is required, not a work model where the same officials are dealing with different crises around the world, leaving behind agreements on paper that struggle to become reality.
Trump is trying to score a quick win on the European stage, while Gaza is left behind without the implementation mechanisms for the agreement, without a clear governance structure, and without security. At the same time, violence in Gaza could resume in a moment’s notice. The inhabitants of the region bear the consequences.
Trump needs to understand that peace plans are like riding a bicycle – if you do notmove forward, you fall. This is precisely what happened to the Oslo Accords after Rabin’s assassination. Full presidential attention and a focused team are crucial to implementing the 20-point peace plan.
It is to be hoped that the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in Mar-a-Lago between Christmas and New Year’s Eve will turn attention back to Gaza in a meaningful way.
