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Giovanni Giacalone
Eyes everywhere

Trump calls for ‘all’ hostages to be released, but Netanyahu backs off

Hamas releasing a hostage in Gaza (YouTube. Used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law).

The “deal” between Israel and Hamas, strongly sponsored by US President, Donald Trump, is already showing its evident cracks.

The horrendous psychological and physical conditions of the last three released hostages, Ohad Ben Ami, Or Levy and Ely Sharabi, who re-emerged from the underground concentration camps runt by Hamas; images that recall the end of the Second World War, have led Trump to take a clear position by stating that “all hostages” must be immediately freed. Trump perfectly understood that in those conditions, the hostages still in the hands of Palestinian terrorists, will not last much longer.

In this way, the American president gave Israel the opportunity to put pressure on Hamas and force it to release everyone immediately. How long can the remaining Israelis who are still locked up in Hamas’s torture camps, last for?

The deadline for Hamas to release the hostages is Saturday February 15th at noon, but it immediately became obvious that the number of hostages to be set free was unclear. All? Three? Six? The media struggled to understand what was going on, because the whole situation was incomprehensible.

Yet, regardless of Trump’s “assist” to pressure Hamas to free all the hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu preferred to lower the stakes, proceeding along the path of the “few at a time”. As summarized in an extremely clear and pungent way by Niram Ferretti, director of the Italian in-depth website on Israel and the Middle East “L’Informale“:

So, let’s summarize the farce. Two days ago Trump declared that if all the hostages held by Hamas are not released by Saturday, all hell will break loose. Typical Rambo statement that Trump has accustomed us to. Then, however, he added that it is up to Israel to decide on the matter. It is then Netanyahu’s turn to enter the scene. He issued a statement in which he informed that if the hostages, mind you, “the” hostages, not “all” are not released on Saturday, the war will resume. Trump raises the stakes, and Netanyahu lowers them. The technique is obvious. They ask for a hundred to get tenBut these “ten” were already foreseen in the agreement. So Hamas gets hell not to break loose and Israel will get three more hostages back. There will be the usual stage set up by Hamas, etc. etc. What can we deduce from this?

Netanyahu has no real intention of resuming the war, just as Hamas has no intention of giving up its grip on Gaza. On the other hand, let’s be clear, this war has never really been fought to eliminate Hamas, a war that is fought to destroy an enemy and force it to surrender has been fought since the time of Thermopylae onwards to conquer its territory not to reclaim sectors that immediately after the reclamation return to the control of the enemy.

It is not necessary to have read great theorists of military strategy to understand this. So? So up to now it has been the largest military operation carried out by Israel against Hamas to weaken it but not to eradicate it. In the meantime the ballet continues.”

As I already said in several articles, before the “deal” took off, Hamas is using the “deal” to boost its image all over the Middle East and the Islamic world, presenting itself as a champion of “resistance against Israel. This, willingly or not, will increase its position as a potentially legitimate interlocutor, especially if there are political actors in the area willing to follow along and provide the terrorist organization with the necessary support. The horrendous hostage humiliation show that is performed by Hamas on every release is a perfect example of this.

Hamas has no interest in releasing all the hostages, because they are the only leverage the terrorist organization has against Israel, its life insurance. The release process will go on for months, maybe years and, in the meantime, Hamas will ask for guarantees regarding its permanence and political role in Gaza.

Let’s be brutally honest, the hostages will not survive for much longer in Hamas’ underground concentration camps, as the images of the latest release show. Nobody even knows how many are still alive. The “three at the time” deal will simply not work, it does not make sense, just as it doesn’t make sense the continuous “signs of life” rumor machine that seems designated to drag onwards a deal that appeared as moribund from the very beginning.

In addition, it’s unfair to have some released and others not. They all deserve to be released immediately, and the US and Israel can provide sufficient pressure against Hamas, if they really want to.

Why didn’t Netanyahu seize the opportunity launched by Trump? Maybe he believes that Hamas will not fall under the pressure and the terrorist organization will stop releasing the hostages. However, this implies allowing Hamas to be in control and that is absurd, since the organization has been significantly weakened. Hamas should not be in charge.

Instead, Hamas is getting more manpower coming out of Israeli prisons and it’s boosting its propaganda. Of course, the alternative to Hamas not releasing all the hostages at once would have been to attack Gaza once again, and that is probably what Netanyahu wants to avoid, and the question is once again, why? Wasn’t the objective of the war supposed to be the eradication of Hamas? That will certainly not happen by providing the organization with more terrorists, allowing Qatar to send fuel to Gaza (who will benefit from it?) and allowing Hamas to humiliate the released hostages for its propaganda benefit.

If we look back, we realize that the way the whole war was conducted, splitting the Strip into sectors and using “clean and retreat” counterinsurgency techniques, was not meant to eradicate Hamas but only to weaken it. As Ferretti already stated, “It is not necessary to have read great theorists of military strategy to understand this.” Did the Israeli soldiers killed in Gaza die for nothing? The only way to eradicate a terrorist organization from its soil is to invade, occupy and stranglehold it until surrender. That’s what the US-led coalition did in Mosul against ISIS.

Its leaders must be hunted down, wherever they may hide. There is no point in going only after one or two leaders. So here are more “whys?” Why is Netanyahu procrastinating the eradication of Hamas? Why not try to have all the hostages released immediately before it’s too late? Why not seize the opportunity given by Trump?

In a somewhat provocative way, we could say that if on the one hand, it is convenient for Hamas to keep the hostages as long as possible to ensure its survival and control over Gaza, in the same way, the presence of the hostages in Gaza is a good hold for those who want to avoid in every possible way invading and eradicating Hamas. “It can’t be done because there are hostages at stake”.

In addition, why is Qatar still being allowed to mediate, despite being Hamas’ number one financial and political supporter? There is no way to take down Hamas without going after Qatar, but without the will to do it, it’s even useless to discuss “Hamas’ eradication” or even “the global war on Islamism”.

About the Author
Giovanni Giacalone is a senior analyst in Islamist extremism and terrorism at the Italian Team for Security, Terroristic Issues and Managing Emergencies-Catholic University of Milan, at the Europe desk for the UK-based think tank Islamic Theology of Counter-Terrorism, and a researcher for Centro Studi Machiavelli. Since 2021 he is the coordinator for the "Latin America group" at the International Institute for the Study of Security-ITSS. In 2023 Giacalone published the book “The Tablighi Jamaat in Europe”.
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