Trump’s Choice: Will The President Help Israel Dismantle Iran’s Nuclear Program?

As the Israel-Iran war approaches its sixth day, President Donald Trump may hold the key to whether the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions are dismantled or endure.

Another unanswered question is if Mr. Trump will back Israeli efforts to overthrow the regime in Tehran.

President Trump has long vowed that the Islamic Republic will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. His commitment to this outcome increases prospects that US B-2 Spirit strategic bombers will be used to deliver the heavy munitions needed for destroying the deeply buried centrifuges at Iran’s major nuclear enrichment site, Fordow.

Mr. Trump’s stance towards Iran is well founded. Tehran is the world’s largest state sponsor of terror with a long history of targeted assassinations of political dissidents and suppression of its own citizens (ethnic minorities, women, the LGBT+ community, etc.). Since 2022 it has supplied Putin with countless Shahed drones used to kill Ukrainians, and the regime has also been a maligned influence with its backing of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria.

Yet, Mr. Trump has been making conflicting statements about Israel’s strikes on Iran. He has posted on social media that he prefers a diplomatic outcome and has also threatened more harm to Iran if it does not return to nuclear talks. Accompanying Mr. Trump’s threats are suggestions that the US will become directly involved in the war.

President Trump is also said to have opposed a plan by Mr. Netanyahu to eliminate Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Some analysts believe this could be the president’s way of delivering an ultimatum to Iran: negotiate a nuclear deal or the Ayatollah will be dealt with and removed from power.

The Israeli public is currently resolved to support their leaders if they can successfully neutralize Iran’s nuclear weapons program and ensure that Tehran cannot continue attacking Israel with ballistic missiles.

Shortly after hostilities began, Iran lost control of its skies and has been unable to protect its military leadership, nuclear scientists and much of its military infrastructure. Tehran also is having difficulty landing strikes against Israel’s military assets.

Compounding Iran’s problems is its current geopolitical isolation with no other countries providing security assistance during this critical period for the regime.

Contingencies that the White House is preparing for include possible Iranian retaliations such as strikes on American and allied installations in the Middle East, cyber-attacks, terror operations against Israeli assets overseas, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and high-level assassinations, among others.

A positive outcome in which Tehran agrees to accept no uranium enrichment on Iranian soil accompanied by regular IAEA inspections would be a victory for both Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu.

However, if another round of negotiations does not take place or bear fruit, it could result in the US joining the conflict and Mr. Trump breaking his promise to “stop wars”.

Such an outcome would anger the President’s MAGA base. It would also likely lead to the use of bunker buster bombs to destroy Iran’s remaining nuclear facilities that are spread out among an area more than twice the size of Texas.

It is less clear if President Trump would endorse regime change and it is unknown to what degree the Iranian people currently support such an endeavor. It is also uncertain how the Iranian military and other government entities would respond, nor is it known what ruling entity would succeed Supreme Leader Khamenei.

In the immediate term, the Trump administration will continue to help Israel defend itself from ongoing ballistic missile attacks. (US partners should also lend a hand, i.e., the United Kingdom, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.) This means the US needs to replenish regional air defense systems and move additional naval assets to the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

The doomsday clock on display in central Tehran that is counting down to the date of Israel’s prophesied destruction – – September 9, 2040 – – is a warning of Iran’s long-held murderous intentions towards Israel and the civilized world. It is also a stark reminder that Tehran should never obtain mankind’s most dangerous weapon.

Just as it stopped Iraq’s and Syria’s nuclear weapons programs in 1981 and 2007, Israel is defending the West and her cause to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions is just. Bringing an end to Tehran’s quest to become a nuclear power can provide needed stability to the region, while a failure to do so would contribute to nuclear proliferation and compel other states to get the bomb, i.e., Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and Egypt.

While there is no guarantee that Israel will succeed, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a core interest of the international community. Much depends on President Trump. His choice on the way forward – – statecraft, entering the war, doing nothing, etc. – – will likely determine the course of Middle East power dynamics for years to come.