Trump’s Foreign Aid May Become Best Business Model

The US has changed its approach to international relations. During Biden’s time, America helped Ukraine without expecting much in return. Now, under Trump, things are different. The US is neutral and wants something in exchange for its aid.

A clear example is its new deal with Ukraine. The US will provide aid, but in return, it wants Ukraine’s valuable minerals. It means something for something. Not for free.

Ukraine has lithium, graphite, and rare earth elements—critical for batteries, electronics, and weapons. This shift turns foreign aid into a business deal rather than a commitment to alliances and democratic values.

Many are wondering, “Will this deal end the war between Ukraine and Russia?”

The answer is No!

The war is about more than just minerals. Russia wants control over Ukraine, while Ukraine wants to remain independent. The US is offering help, but it has not promised full protection from Russia. Instead, it seeks its own benefits.

This demand puts Ukraine in a tough position. It needs US support to fight Russia but at the cost of giving away its natural wealth. While the deal might boost Ukraine’s economy, it will not stop the war. Unless a peace agreement is reached, the fighting will continue.

But how long will this $500 billion last for war-torn Ukraine? What will Ukraine sell when this mineral money is finished?

Previously, the US strongly supported Ukraine in the war. However, Trump does not offer the same support to European countries. Germany and France are especially concerned. They fear that the US might negotiate directly with Russia, leaving Europe out of the discussion. If that happens, Ukraine and European countries could be left alone to face Russia without US support.

Can European countries fight Russia without the US?

Hard question, indeed. Europe has relied on American military and economic backing for decades. Without that support, European nations may be forced to reassess their security policies. Will NATO remain united if the US disengages? Can the European Union develop its own defense strategy independent of American leadership? These are critical decisions for leaders in Berlin and Paris.

In the past, war-torn countries received aid without conditions. Now, help comes at a price. Nations with valuable resources will have an advantage, while those without may struggle to secure assistance. Trump is making one thing clear—“War is not free. There is a cost. No money, no war. Live in peace!”

But another key question is “Will China get involved?”

China is also keeping an eye on the situation. It has strong economic ties with Russia and is interested in Ukraine’s minerals. Several news sources show that China has already sought investment opportunities in Ukraine. If China steps in, the situation could become even more complicated.

China’s involvement would go beyond economics. If Beijing strengthens its role in Ukraine, it could challenge US dominance in the region. This raises concerns that Ukraine could become a battleground in the larger US-China geopolitical struggle. But how can this be avoided?

Many argue that a US-Russia deal is the only solution. If the US and Russia reach an agreement, the war could take a new turn, which might not be in favor of Ukraine, and Ukraine might be pressured to give up some land in exchange for peace.

If that is the case, the four Russian-captured regions—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—will be included in the new Russian map.

Meanwhile, European allies may feel abandoned, and this may shift the region’s balance of power. The US is already distancing itself from European countries. J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference last week is the clearest proof. He strongly criticized European nations for expecting US support without upholding “American values.”

Vance also argued that while America defends democracy, Europe does not contribute equally to global security or economic stability. The divide between the US and its European allies is getting wider.

Interestingly, the Trump-led US did not stop there. The US voted in favor of Russia at the UN regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and signaled a major policy shift.

This one vote has a vast meaning. Many think the US is becoming more selective about its commitments and may be preparing for direct negotiations with Russia rather than offering unconditional support to Ukraine.

Is this what the Trump administration promised to stop the war before the election?

It is now clear that the Trump administration does not see Russia as the top global threat. It rather prioritizes fighting hardline Islamist groups. That is why Trump is focusing on destroying Hamas in Gaza rather than escalating tensions with Russia. No doubt, this difference in perspective is widening a secret conflict between European leaders and Trump’s policies.

Europe considers Russia its biggest threat, while Trump sees militant Islamist groups as the main danger. This shift is reshaping alliances. Now, the question is, “Can NATO survive without America’s support?”

Today marks three years and four days since the Russia-Ukraine war began on February 24, 2022. It has remained an unsolved equation—one that no one could predict. But now, the answer seems easier to solve.

Trump’s policy is hinting at a solution: How many resources does Ukraine have, and how long can it fight a superpower like Russia? So, a peace deal may be the only option if Ukraine wants to survive.

The coming months will determine whether this realignment strengthens or fractures the existing world order.

Indeed, Trump’s policies are incredible. Before, people used to get Green Cards. Now, he is offering Gold Cards—for $5 million. It’s a political trick of a different kind. But one thing is clear, Trump is not just a politician but the greatest magician of our time. His plans work better than any magic.

In short, some of Trump’s foreign policies could evolve into the most effective modern business model. However, for Ukraine, it may serve as a blueprint for peace.

The world watches the Trump administration in astonishment as its policies unfold, wondering what will come next.

February 28, 2025
Tokyo, Japan