Trump’s shadow and the Biden ‘lame duck’ period

To the astonishment of many outsiders, a majority of Israelis rooted for a Trump victory. This reflected gratitude for his historic gestures of recognizing Jerusalem as our capital and moving the US embassy there as well as for his recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. It was sealed with the success of his administration’s Abraham Accords initiative. However, this had also to do with many viewing Biden as hostile, which is beyond bizarre given that no president before him, certainly not since Richard Nixon’s support for Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, stood by Israel and supported it in word and deed as the self-proclaimed, non-Jewish Zionist, Joe Biden.

Today, one can find several schools in Israelis’ anticipations of a second Trump era. On the extreme right, there is the notion that with Trump Israel will have a free hand in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. Even Iran had better watch out. Moreover, according to that view, Netanyahu has just lost the “but Biden” excuse for restraining his annexationist, Jewish Supremacist partners.

Others either entertain an expectation that unlike Biden, Trump will not let Netanyahu push him around, or fear an isolationist Trump disowning this troubled and troubling region, Israel’s challenges included.

As to Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, one can assume that he does not make light of Trump’s reported ‘advice’ to him during their Mar-a-Lago meeting a couple of months ago: Get this mess over before I am inaugurated. The PM probably deploys all his sensors in an effort to get a hint of the composition of the second Trump team. Is it going to be the likes of the messianic, annexationist David Friedman, supportive of reckless and adventurous policies – primarily, but not exclusively on the West Bank, or people more reflective of Trump’s isolationist tendencies who are likely to seek to restrain Israeli provocateurs. Though Netanyahu probably expects to have better working relations with the Trump inner circle, the priorities of Trump 2.0 and the orientation of his team will matter.

One thing is clear: the era of the ‘Zionist president’ was short lived and was about to end. No predecessor shared that sentiment, certainly not so profoundly, and it was to be over regardless of who was to win the US elections. For neither candidate had Biden’s intuitive warmth toward our country and unqualified commitment to its security.

However, one must not leap over the remainder of the Biden term. In Israel, both security types and politicos, expect President Biden to reenergize American diplomacy in trying to end the fighting, or at least deescalate them, by Jan. 20. This is both for US national security considerations and personal legacy ones. In so doing, the outgoing administration is expected to leverage Netanyahu’s concern with the above-noted Trump message, whereby the 47th president expects this multi-front crisis to be over by the time he takes office. This might also be the opportunity for the outgoing president to have his last word. No longer constrained by election considerations, he might choose to create a moment of clarity by telling Israelis (as well as Palestinians and the region) the truth. He might share with them his frustrations with Netanyahu repeatedly sabotaging opportunities for hostages’ deal, for regional engagement in a secure Gaza exit strategy, and for Israel’s integration in a coalition to check Iran’s violent meddling.

If this proves effective, Netanyahu might face a serious dilemma: does he impose his will on his fiercely ideological coalition partners who refuse to end the war in Gaza or calm the West Bank by restricting settlement activity and restraining settler violence – thus risk them jumping ship and ending his tenure? Alternatively, does he dare prolong the war for personal considerations, thus face the wrath of an incoming president emboldened by his massive victory, unrestrained by Congress, and unpredictable by nature? 

For Israelis who share Biden’s frustrations, who wish to see the hostages home and the war to end, the prospects of an effective Biden lame duck period are a source of some cautious hope.