Trump’s West Bank threat may save Israel from itself

Israel would lose all support from the United States if it unilaterally annexed parts of the West Bank (Judea and Samaria). This message was delivered bluntly and clearly by US President Donald Trump. It has angered many Israelis and many supporters of Israel, but I suggest that they should see it instead as a positive development and as an opportunity to move forward with more rational policies in the West Bank.

Annexation of major parts of the West Bank (as opposed to only the large settlement blocks that are located close to the green line) would be suicidal for Israel, as many Israelis have been saying for a long time, because it would turn Israel into a binational state. Despite this, much of the Israeli right insists that Israel would remain a Jewish state. The rationale that they provide does not hold under scrutiny, but they are driven by emotion rather than by rational thinking.

I am not writing this, however, to debate the viability of annexing the West Bank. I have written on this topic several times, and many others have done so as well. In the end, the annexation ideology cannot be fought with arguments. With his blunt message, however, Trump may have shattered the discourse on this issue, and this may force Israel’s right to change its policies in the West Bank.

Until now, the settler movement was under the delusion that that they could somehow get away with annexing the West Bank and maybe even Gaza if only there was a US administration that was willing to look the other way. They should realize now, however, that this will never happen. Trump, the re-elected US president that Israeli right very much wanted, is not only unwilling to look the other way but is even bluntly stating that America would never allow annexation.

It has been clear for a long time that a US Democratic administration would stand in the way of annexation. Now it is clear that no US administration from either party would allow it. Some people may argue that Israel does not need US support, but those who argue this are not living in the real world. Not only is US support often essential to help Israel defend itself against its enemies, but if the US started helping Israel’s enemies, either militarily or diplomatically, Israel would be sunk.

For all intents and purposes, the annexation ideology is dead. The sooner that the Israeli right realizes this the better for them and for Israel.

Many people will argue that Judea and Samaria is the heartland of Israel and that annexing it is only natural. Many will also argue that the Palestinians should not have a state because they have never accepted solutions that gave them a state and because unlike Israel, Palestine has never existed. These emotional arguments, regardless of how valid they may be, do not change reality. Reality is not always desirable or even fair, but it’s still reality.

If the Israeli right remains under the delusion that some magic act will allow them to annex the West Bank, they will continue pursuing expensive settlement policies that are not sustainable in the long term. Once they accept reality, they will be able to plan for Israel’s future accordingly.