US-Saudi Summit: Hurdles Remain, Yet Diplomatic Progress is Possible
As President Trump welcomes Saudi Crown Prince to the White House this week, what will both leaders hope to achieve?
President Trump will seek progress on Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel (via the Abraham Accords) and finalizing the $600 billion of Saudi investment pledges in the US.
Crown Pince Mohammed bin Salman (“MBS”) will aim to secure a defense treaty with Washington, assistance with building a civilian nuclear energy program as well as deals on advanced semiconductor chips, F-35 fighter jets and weapons.
Based upon Mr. Trump’s November 17 statements to the press, it appears as if he will allow Saudi Arabia to purchase American F-35s. This despite Pentagon concerns over China possibly acquiring the aircraft’s sensitive technology through its security cooperation with Riyadh or via espionage.
For their part, the Israelis have been apprehensive that a future Saudi procurement of F-35s would compromise Israel’s “qualitative military edge” since it is the only Middle East state that currently possesses the planes.
Despite the complications involved, the November 18 Trump-MBS summit holds the potential for delivering historic outcomes even though both sides may not get everything they want.
While Trump is likely to advance the $600 billion Saudi investment pledges in defense, manufacturing and technology, convincing MBS to normalize ties with Israel is viewed by many to be a tall order.
MBS has long demanded that the price for Riyadh to join the Abraham Accords is a commitment from Israel to Palestinian statehood. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long expressed opposition to this idea.
Yet, some analysts believe President Trump can make the case that a path to a Palestinian state has already been created.
The United Nations’ November 17 approval of the White House’s 20-point plan to implement a sustainable peace in Gaza could provide Mr. Trump with a card he can play in his talks with the Crown Prince.
Notably, President Trump may argue that the UN Security Council’s backing of a US resolution to create a Board of Peace – – for the purpose of creating a stable Gaza – – will help pave the way to a Palestinian state over the long term.
Some in the administration believe that the new UN-backed Board of Peace should be enough to convince MBS that sufficient progress has been made for Palestinian sovereignty.
Mr. Trump hopes that this diplomatic progress, along with the administration’s decision to sell F-35s to Riyadh, will suffice to persuade the Crown Prince to normalize ties with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.
Regardless of the outcome of attempts to draw Saudi Arabia and Israel closer together – – a step considered necessary for long-term Middle East peace – – this week’s talks with MBS are expected to enhance Washington’s ties with Riyadh.
Although a full security treaty between the US and Saudi Arabia cannot take place without approval by the US Congress, President Trump will seek to formalize the security relationship through a defense pact that guarantees the Kingdom’s security.
On the commercial front, the two countries are expected to strike deals on AI technology, data centers, energy and the mining of critical minerals – – all of which are key to realize MBS’ goal of moving Saudi Arabia from dependence on fossil fuels to a more diversified economy.
Part and parcel of President Trump’s strategy is to strengthen the US-Saudi relationship for purposes of serving as a bulwark against Tehran and preventing Riyadh from becoming too close to Beijing.
Although normalizing ties with Israel is not among Crown Prince bin Salman’s current priorities, he hopes to use this visit to solidify himself as an indispensable ally while securing US defense guarantees and access to American technologies.
