Ustica from A to Z: New Book Debunks Anti-Israel Theory on Italian Tragedy

On June 27, 1980, a DC-9 operated by the Italian airline Itavia departed from Bologna and, en route to Palermo, crashed into the Tyrrhenian Sea near the Sicilian island of Ustica, killing all 81 people on board. Over the decades, multiple theories have been proposed to explain the disaster, ranging from structural failure to a missile strike amid an aerial battle. Among the more controversial claims is the hypothesis—recently revived in Italy—that the aircraft was deliberately shot down by Israeli fighter jets.

This theory, first introduced in 1994, suggests that Israeli pilots mistook the DC-9 for an Air France Airbus A300 allegedly carrying enriched uranium to Iraq. Despite the lack of conclusive evidence and the outright dismissal of this claim by Italian investigative authorities, it has resurfaced, in part certainly due to the current climate of systemic antisemitism in relation to Israel, and because it is being taken seriously by Italian state television, which dedicated space to the theory in the program “Report” on its third channel in May 2024.

This scenario, clearly linked to the narrative of Israel’s omnipotence, whether presented in a sinister or scholarly light, often veers among the public into antisemitic tropes. In the case of Ustica, it suggests that Israel had both the means and the audacity to shoot down a civilian airliner over Italian airspace without consequence. Such a claim is not only unfounded, but also dangerous.

This myth of the “fifth scenario,” as the scenario that sees Israel responsible for the tragedy is commonly defined, has been successfully debunked in a groundbreaking new essay titled “Uscire dal labirinto. Ustica dalla A alla Z” (Coming out of the Labyrinth: Ustica from A to Z). The new book, compiled by 25 experts in aviation, history, and law, provides a much-needed factual counterweight to the myths surrounding Ustica. By breaking down the case into over 400 entries, it distinguishes between initial speculations and evidence-based conclusions. The book addresses technical aspects of the crash, the legal proceedings, and the broader geopolitical context, dismantling sensationalist claims—including those regarding Israeli involvement.

Giuliana Cavazza and Flavia Bartolucci, Honorary President and President of the Association for Truth about the Ustica Air Disaster (AVDAU), have defined the work as “A compass to guide through the long and complex history of Ustica,” and the editor of the book, university professor and journalist Gregory Alegi, an expert in military and aerospace history, explained how “Forty-five years after the tragedy, traditional news coverage is not enough to shed light on Ustica. The challenge we set with the publisher LoGisma was to ‘deconstruct Ustica’ into entries, from four lines to four pages, focusing on the interpretative crossroads that fuel the investigation into the authors of the massacre.”

In response to the “fifth scenario” claim, the book dismantles the theory step by step. First, the technical feasibility of the operation, as described in the fifth scenario, is highly questionable. At the time, Israel’s Air Force did not possess the aerial refueling capabilities required for such a long-range mission. The aircraft types mentioned, including the Kfir C-2 and A-4 Skyhawk, either lacked the necessary radar systems for interception or the ability to conduct air-to-air refueling in 1980. The logistics of such an attack, including multiple mid-air refuelings and coordinated interceptions, make this scenario implausible.

Second, the argument that Israel mistakenly identified the DC-9 as an Airbus A300 does not hold up under scrutiny. The two aircraft differ significantly in size, shape, and engine placement. Moreover, the notion that the Mossad failed to confirm that the A300 had never departed from Marseille further weakens the theory.

To further address the technical inconsistencies of the “fifth scenario,” I consulted retired IAF pilot and Brigadier-General Israel Shafir. Shafir was one of the eight pilots who participated in the historic 1981 Operation Opera—the Israeli airstrike that destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. He later served as commander of Israel’s flight school and Tel Nof Airbase.

“Mistaking a DC-9 for an A300 is very unlikely. The DC-9 has a distinct high elevator at the top of the fin tail, whereas the A300 does not. Thus, pilots could not miss the difference,” Shafir explained. Moreover “The F-15 at the time had no refueling capability for lack of tankers. So the interception conspiracy has no merit.”

Shafir’s comments reinforce the conclusions drawn in “Uscire dal labirinto,” which systematically dismantles the false allegations of Israeli involvement in the Ustica disaster.

But while Israel is unfairly accused, there are more credible leads that have been largely overlooked. Investigations have uncovered significant Palestinian and Libyan connections to the Ustica incident, which seem to identify the cause of the tragedy as a bomb placed on the aircraft, perhaps in the context of the anti-Western hostility of Mu’ammar Gaddafi’s Libyan regime and its ties to Palestinian terrorism.

Overlooked Libyan and Palestinian Connections

One key aspect is Libya’s geopolitical tensions with Italy, particularly regarding contested gas deposits near Malta. At the time, disputes over Mediterranean energy resources had fueled friction between Rome and Tripoli, with Gaddafi aggressively asserting Libya’s regional influence. Against this backdrop, a Libyan-sponsored attack against Italian interests—whether as a warning or an act of retaliation—cannot be ruled out.

Another possible factor is the Lodo Moro, a secret understanding between Italy and Palestinian terrorist factions. While it ensured that Palestinian militants would not carry out attacks on Italian soil, such arrangements depended on continued Italian compliance. If Italy was perceived as failing to uphold its side of the pact—whether by increasing security measures or limiting Palestinian movements—retaliation could have followed. In this context, the Ustica disaster may have been a consequence of shifting dynamics in Italy’s covert dealings with Palestinian terrorism.

In any case, the fact remains that the tendency to attribute extraordinary—and often malevolent—capabilities to Israel, while ignoring more plausible explanations, is a longstanding issue in European discourse. This narrative bears a striking resemblance to other conspiracy theories that frame Israel as an all-seeing, all-powerful entity. Whether in reference to intelligence operations, military actions, or geopolitical strategies, this portrayal serves to delegitimize Israel’s role in global affairs while feeding into classic antisemitic stereotypes.

The Ustica tragedy remains a painful chapter in Italian history, and the search for truth should be guided by facts, not politically or ideologically motivated conjectures. Reviving baseless theories about Israeli involvement not only distorts the historical record but also fuels a narrative that has long been used to discredit the Jewish state. Rather than indulging in revisionist speculation, efforts should focus on investigating the more credible leads that have yet to be fully explored.

For Italy and the world, the memory of the 81 victims of Ustica deserves better than conspiracy theories—it deserves the truth.