War in the Middle East: Washington Calls the Shots  

As the saying goes “the devil is in the details” but for us here in Israel the devil and the details seem to be in the White House in Washington and not the Prime Minister’s office in Jerusalem.

Based on news reports coming out of the US and other quarters, President Trump seems to be evaluating an MOU with Iran that will end the war and set out an agreement on the next steps in the process. As has been the case since the beginning of the war, the details are not clear, nor have even the sketchy terms that Trump speaks about been confirmed by the Iranians. The bottom line is that those of us who will be most affected by whatever deal is struck between the parties have absolutely no idea what a final document will contain if it is approved.

However, what we do know is that while in the early days of the current war with Iran, Israel seemed to be a full partner with the US, when it came to serious negotiations on an agreement to end the war Israel was not invited to the party.

If there is a message in that construct, it is that Israel is seen as a useful partner in waging war, doing America’s dirty work in decapitating the Iranian regime, and clearing out Iranian airspace so the US air force can do its thing unhindered. But when it comes to negotiating an end to the war, the US President does not want to be limited by any unique concerns of Israel’s that do not resonate with the White House.

None of this should be a surprise. I’ve penned this incident previously, but on October 28, 2018 I was in New York and attended the annual Tikvah Foundation Conference at the New York Hyatt. The gathering was opened by the president of the foundation who said that before beginning the formal sessions, the assemblage needed to give then President Trump a huge thank you for all he had done for Israel since his inauguration 22 months earlier. Everyone in the room rose to applaud except me.

When people took their seats again, the person in the chair next to mine turned to me and asked why, if I am from Israel, am I not grateful to the President? I replied that I was grateful but that I had not yet learned the cost to Israel of his largesse and, therefore, would reman seated until I knew that price.

So here we are, almost eight years later and learning the price time after time after time. The price for the benefits, whatever they are, is an obligation to exhibit fealty to the “Don” as the Italians like to refer to the head of the Mafia, and understand that we will do whatever he says whenever he says it. And if he decides at any moment that we are no longer useful, we will find ourselves on the outside looking in, rather that in the Situation Room where we might have been just as we were just a short three months ago.

Yet, independent of the ups and downs of the relationship with a peripatetic US president and his mostly incompetent cabinet, our government here in Israel needs to take a hard look at what has been accomplished over these last few years of non-stop war and what lessons we can learn from the experience.

For sure we have reduced the military capabilities of our enemies, made Lebanon less hospitable for Hezbollah and caused the fall of the Assad government, while doing significant damage to Iran’s offensive and defensive capabilities. However, for all practical purposes the war continues in Gaza with Hamas seemingly regrouping, Hezbollah continuing their assault on the north, the IDF occupying parts of Syria and Iran continuing their nuclear development and re-arming as I write. All of this while there are continuing attacks against West Bank Arabs by our own people on a regular basis. On the surface of it, there seems to be a significant limit on what we really were able to achieve

As the New York Times wrote today: “He (Netanyahu) had led Israel to war in February with grand visions of achieving a goal he has pursued for decades: stopping Iran’s push for nuclear weapons once and for all. As the war began with a stunning decapitation of much of the government in Tehran, it seemed as though an even more grandiose dream might come true: the toppling of the regime.

….Far from vanquished, the Islamic Republic has behaved as though it won the war, merely by surviving it. Israel, by contrast, has seen its biggest objectives for the war elude its grasp.”

The White House is not blind to all of this nor should they be. The government now in power there and in seemingly monarchial control of the presidency and both houses of congress risks a huge electoral blowback in the November elections if they cannot get the economy back under control and end the war. Decisions about those issues will be made in the best interest of the US by probably the most transactional president in history. If Israel has to pay the price for that, all we may get from Washington is a sad face and the phrase “so be it.” Sadly, we probably should never have expected anything more.