We are losing this war

Israel is losing this war.

In Gaza, it has destroyed some terrorists, tunnels, and rockets/rocket launchers. But it has not downgraded Hamas’s fighting capabilities to the point where Hamas is not a significant danger to Israel. Doing so would take a years-long military occupation, which carries its own dangers and which the IDF does not believe itself capable of carrying out. The IDF is also worried such an occupation would drain resources away from other places where they are needed. We have not replaced Hamas as the governing power of Gaza. We have no plan in place for how or who to replace Hamas as the governing power in Gaza.

There is increasing lawlessness in the West Bank. Price tag attacks by settlers against Palestinians, shooting attacks by Palestinian against settlers, clashes between IDF and Palestinian terror groups. There is also a fear that the PA, which currently works with the Shabak to prevent terror attacks against Israelis, is collapsing under the weight of Israeli policy to deprive it of tax income and to prevent Palestinians who previously held work permits from working in Israel.

In the north, Hezbollah has free reign to rain down rockets on Israeli civilians. Not only is there no long-term Israeli strategy in place, but also, there is real reason, based on previous history, to fear Israel getting stuck in a Lebanese quagmire if it invades. Hezbollah is also Israel’s best armed and trained enemy that sits on its border.

Iran of course is the biggest threat. It stands on the threshold of nuclear capabilities. It is funding Hamas and Hezbollah. Defeating it requires an international Western coalition that will help apply sanctions, cut off its funding, and bolster Israel’s air defenses in case of attack. Yet the current government has continued to anger allies, by insulting them (Bibi criticizing Biden for holding up arms sales when it didn’t happen), instituting policies ancillary to the war that it knows anger allies (like approving a record number of settlements), or making statements that deny the very human rights values that this Western coalition is based on and frame Israel’s values as being outside of the Western world it counts on to defend it by virtue of its membership in said world (see comments from Ben Gvir and Smotrich about Palestinians and about Gaza). 

Talks about a cease-fire/hostage deal, or about elections after the war, often seem to hinge on the moment of victory. Can we cease fire before we have won? Can we have elections before we have won? But none of these questions define what that moment of victory is.

The real question is: Given that we are currently losing a multi-front war and the current government has no strategic plan to reverse that loss, what happens if we don’t have a cease-fire/hostage agreement – until what point do we keep risking our soldiers for a fight we cannot win, because it does not have victory as its aim. If victory is defeating Hamas, and the government has no strategic plan in place for defeating Hamas, we cannot defeat Hamas. We can kill some Hamas terrorists or destroy some of their tunnels. But that is not the same thing. So how much longer do we continue fighting? When do we say: We’ve done as much as we can right now, so we might as well get something in return – the safe return of our hostages. A return of the hostages would also boost Israeli public morale, which is sorely in need of boosting. It is nearly impossible that the current public mood of despair will not affect the IDF’s abilities. A major argument against stopping the war is deterrence -but the war doesn’t provide deterrence if we are losing. In fact, the opposite is true.

Now let’s turn to elections. All things being equal, there is a logic to waiting for the end of a war to have elections. But all things are not equal. When the people in charge of declaring elections are also the people in charge of deciding if and when the war is over, this creates a problematic set of incentives. Furthermore, if one believes that the current government is a key reason that we are losing the war -and in fact, that it is impossible to win the war with this government but possible with a different government -then the imperative is to have elections during the war so you can win the war. Furthermore, the current government suffers from a legitimacy crisis. Many, on the right, left, and center, feel that it bears some responsibility in the October 7th tragedy. A government elected by the people after that tragedy would not suffer from the same legitimacy crisis. The increased government legitimacy would translate into better morale for public and soldiers alike.

I think that there is a lot of fear that saying we are losing can ruin morale. I hesitated before saying this publicly. I also do not want to ruin morale: I have no words to describe the gratitude I feel to the Israeli soldiers who are risking their lives to protect me, my family, and the entire country. But I am now worried that we are so worried about ruining morale that we can’t speak the truth, and without acknowledging the truth, we can’t take appropriate actions to remedy the situation. So now, for the sake of Zion, I will not be silent.

I write these words keeping my ears open for sirens alerting me to rockets from Iran. I don’t have a pretty bow to wrap this up in. The bomb shelter room is stocked. I hear a car in the distance and sound of people playing basketball in the park. We are waiting.