What could we expect from Trump’s presidency?

As Donald Trump prepares to take office once again, many American Jews and a minority of Israeli Jews are reflecting on what this presidency could mean for American democracy and its global influence. Questions remain about which faction of Trump’s team will dominate – the isolationist America First wing or the more interventionist, hawkish camp. These decisions carry significant weight for Israel, particularly as Trump’s early appointments suggest a strong pro-Israel stance that aligns closely with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

The foreign policy and national security team assembled by Trump is undeniably favorable to Israel’s right-wing leadership. Marco Rubio, the designated secretary of state, has long been a vocal supporter of Israel. Similarly, Mike Huckabee, the incoming ambassador to Israel, is a known advocate of Israeli sovereignty over disputed territories, and his appointment is welcomed by many on the Israeli right. Yanir Kozin, in an early interview on IDF radio, cautiously suggested that annexation of Judea and Samaria could be on the agenda but stressed that ultimate decisions rest with Trump.

Further cementing this pro-Israel approach are other appointments like Mike Waltz as national security advisor and Pete Hegseth as defense secretary. Together, these figures form a team that is likely to find favor with Netanyahu and his coalition. The relief in avoiding a Harris administration, perceived as potentially less sympathetic to Netanyahu’s policies, is palpable among Israel’s right-wing politicians and voters.

Yet, Trump’s transactional approach to politics and his focus on loyalty could complicate matters. Jonathan Rynhold, a professor and expert on American-Israeli relations, highlights the potential tensions between Trump’s ambitions and Netanyahu’s coalition commitments. For Trump, brokering a historic normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia could serve as the cornerstone of his foreign policy legacy. However, such a deal might require concessions, including gestures toward a two-state solution or agreements concerning Gaza and the Palestinian Authority. These requirements could clash with the hardline demands of figures like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has openly called for 2025 to be the “year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.”

Netanyahu may soon face a difficult choice: aligning with Trump’s broader diplomatic objectives or adhering to the uncompromising stance of his right-wing base. As Rynhold notes, Trump’s well-documented sensitivity to personal loyalty and grievances could amplify the stakes of this decision. A failure to cooperate with Trump’s vision could provoke diplomatic fallout from an unpredictable and assertive U.S. president.

Some Israeli politicians have already voiced concerns about unilateral annexation. Yuli Edelstein, former Knesset speaker and current chair of the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee, warned that such a move could undermine Israel’s democratic and Jewish character, steering the country toward a post-democratic reality. Edelstein and others see a potential Saudi-Israel normalization deal, building on the Abraham Accords, as a more viable and strategically beneficial path forward. Such a coalition could reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape and diminish the appeal of hardline policies advocated by Israel’s religious right.

Ironically, the personal ambitions of Trump and Netanyahu might converge to sideline the annexation agenda championed by Smotrich and his allies. Both leaders have an eye on their historical legacies, and a groundbreaking deal with Saudi Arabia could offer them the prestige they seek while promoting regional stability. However, achieving this vision will require careful navigation of political pressures on both sides.

As Israel prepares for what could be a transformative period under Trump’s leadership, the stakes are high. Balancing domestic political considerations with opportunities for regional diplomacy will test Netanyahu’s ability to lead. For Israelis and their allies, the hope remains that these developments will secure Israel’s future as both a Jewish and democratic state.