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What is Hamas thinking? Post war scenarios…

Ismail Haniyeh & his comrades successfully controlled Gaza for 18 years & managed wars against Israel sitting in Qatar. Courtesy Wikipedia

Nobody has a time machine to see into the future. But we can definitely use past behaviors to predict the enemy’s expected response. Till now, Hamas has claimed victory after every conflict with Israel. In terms of popularity amongst Palestinians on the streets of the West Bank, they beat Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas). So what will the future of Gaza look like after the war? Lets predict certain scenarios.

Scenario 1 – Israel eliminates Hamas but the West unilaterally recognizes a Palestinian state – The Palestinian movement would feel that they have won the war and only gained from this war and the Oct 7 massacre. They would believe that Hamas was always right to choose the path of violent struggle. The price of Palestinian deaths would seem like a small price to pay to gain legitimacy without concessions and accepting peace with Israel. They would be enjoying the fruits of terrorism. The Palestinians would declare another victory for their cause since the loss of Hamas would still be a small price to pay. They would glorify the Hamas movement and its martyrs. The Palestinians would continue to choose violence as their biggest means to achieve their dreams from the river to the sea since they did not make any concessions to Israel except in human lives. But they got statehood and global recognition in return.

Scenario 2 – Israel is forced into a ceasefire and Hamas survives in Rafah. Hamas will declare major victory like it always has after every armed conflict with Israel. The Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank would celebrate on the streets. Hamas will slowly and steadily fight back using insurgency and suicide bombings on Israeli soldiers. Over 1-15 years depending on international pressure, Israel would have to slowly withdraw from Gaza which means back to square one. Another massacre can be expected which might be worse than Oct 7, 2023 and better planned by them. Rapes Israeli women and murdering Israeli children would be for them a proven and successful tactic to hurt Israel. Taking Jewish hostages will become a norm across the world. Jews won’t be safe anywhere in the world because of Hamas and other terrorist organizations. International antisemitism will only multiply from here.

Scenario 3 – Israel wins the war and eliminates all Hamas leaders over time. The result here depends on how Israel undertakes anti insurgency measures and how they manage to successfully deradicalize the Palestinian population. They need to make Gaza a society that values their own human life, their children’s and also Israeli life. This can result in long term peace when their next generation isn’t brought up into a world of hatred and despise for the Jews and Israel. This would be a long and expensive but successful tactic if well executed by all successful Israeli Governments.

Scenario 4 – Israel is forced into a ceasefire under international pressure without exchange of hostages – Lets not ignore the elephant in the room. Hamas wouldn’t care less if their losses are 30,000 or 300,000 Palestinian lives. They will declare victory and claim that they have defeated the enemy again and successfully carried out a massacre of Jews. They will raise victory flags in celebration like it did in every war and start preparing for the next attack on Israel. They will increase their networks and support from the Arab World and build up their ammunition. They will strongly entrench themselves in the West Bank to try to wipe out the PLO completely to take over Area A & B.

Scenario 5 – Israel wins the war and lets the Hamas leaders live in exile. Hamas leaders will slowly and steadily try to make a comeback into Gaza through their connections. There might be suicide bombings and attacks on Israeli soldiers in Gaza. Hamas may even agree to recognize Israel’s right to exist only as a fake disguise to gain international legitimacy and prepare for the next massacre. Their international war on Jews would be improved to attack every Jew world over. Hostage-taking would become common against Jews worldwide every time that Hamas wants something big or even if it wants a return into Gaza and the West Bank. Accessing and operating Gaza will be easier due to improving technology and communication. Like Yasser Arafat moved from Jordan to Syria, Lebanon and Tunisia, Hamas will use other countries to launch attacks on Israel until they return. Give it less than 5 years before another major attack is launched on Jews from Gaza or around the world

Whatever the scenario, these tough decisions and actions will impact Jewish and Israeli lives forever after the end of this war. The US Government and the EU should think hard before demanding more Israeli concessions. Will those Israeli concessions truly result in peace or will it add to the Israeli problems and only embolden Palestinian terrorism against Israel. Praying for permanent peace on both sides.

About the Author
A Zionist who did Aliyah from Mumbai (Bene Israeli Jew) in 2018. Adir is an MBA from the renowned Jamnalal Bajaj School of Management in Mumbai. He has been a politics, economics & finance enthusiast from a young age. From writing about current affairs in school to responding to news pieces of the Jerusalem post which were published. Adir has come a long way from India to Israel and kept pursuing his passions in finance, global politics, world macro economics, business news and issues that affect us all. He is a full time banker in Israel and a multi passionate soul.
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