What is the Trump Doctrine?

Is it to arm our allies and have them defend and protect our joint interests? Or project US military might to protect US geopolitical interests? If it is the latter, then the need to use MOAB bunker-busters on Iran’s underground nuclear complex presents a strategic opportunity to the US that will re-assert its role as the dominant military, willing to act when redlines are crossed.

If we consider US – China global competition as a core strategy and primary focus of the current US administration, how does the recent massive Israeli attack effect US posture, not just in the Middle East but globally? How does US strategy vis-à-vis Iran effect the thinking of leadership in China, particularly with respect to Taiwan?

To date, they mostly see the US administration placing emphasis on diplomatic solutions to conflicts. In the case of the on-going confrontation between Israel and her enemies, this strategy appears to be working just fine, as the IDF has demonstrated itself to be a far stronger and more capable military than her foes. The IDF has handled and mostly decimated Hamas and Hezbollah, dealt significant blows to the Houthis in Yemen, and demolished weapons infrastructure in Syria. Now she is taking the fight (very successfully) to Iran, the proverbial “head of the snake” or “head of the octopus”, pick your favorite expression. Thus far, the main role of the US was confined to driving negotiated solutions, supporting Israel in defending her from Iranian missile attacks, and most importantly, in providing sufficient arms and replenishment of munitions, both for the Israeli Army and Airforce. This support is both essential and mostly sufficient for Israel in waging a multi-front war in the Middle East.

Will the same approach be sufficient in other theaters of conflicts? More specifically, in the case of Taiwan, which the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) considers an illegitimate entity without the right to an independent existence? Does this sound familiar? The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is advocating for a position that is the reverse of what some in the West are pushing for in Israel – a “two-state-solution”. We can call the CCP’s demand a “one-state-solution”.

The balance of power in the China-Taiwan confrontation will be once again a reversal of that in the Middle East, where the US ally Israel demonstrated a resounding military superiority against her adversaries. China is a mighty heavyweight in the contest against Taiwan. Soon they may be able to line up their submarine fleet, stern to bow, around the entire island of Taiwan. Hopefully figuratively. In light of this stark reality, the US will need to employ a different strategy to support Taiwan, a US ally. That strategy will have to be active kinetic engagement of the US military. Will this necessity be a sufficient deterrent to the PRC’s adventurism in Taiwan? How can the US demonstrate that it is willing to engage militarily to protect its vital interests and defend its strong strategically important ally? Set a clear precedent with Iran.

There are several capabilities that the US military has that the IDF does not have. Most notably, the MOAB bunker-busters appear to be the key element needed to destroy the Fordow nuclear complex. So far, the US has ceded the kinetic initiative to Israel. The need to destroy Fordow and Iran’s other deeply buried nuclear facilities is undeniably in the strategic interest of the United States, as it will help to prevent a Chinese proxy – Iran – from acquiring nuclear weapons and becoming a true nuclear-card-carrying member of the “axis of resistance”.

This need also presents the US with a strategic opportunity to demonstrate its willingness to use the full strength and unique capabilities of the US military to protect US interests and fight side-by-side with a US ally.