What Just Happened and What Could Happen Next
It is 4 days after the Israeli elections and my head is still spinning at what turned out to be truly disappointing results of what seemed to have been an incredibly well executed campaign by the opposition vs. a seemingly bumbled campaign by Netanyahu on the backdrop of the disaster of October 7th, and the failures since then. Now that I have had a chance to absorb what just happened, I am starting to see more than just black clouds. We must remind ourselves that the coalition suffered a massive loss, going from a solid majority of 68 seats (including New Hope) to less than a majority of 53 seats (61 is a majority in the 120-seat Knesset). What did not happen was a decisive win for the Change block, which only garnered 48 seats, even less than the coalition. On the other hand, the opposition to Netanyahu block, which includes the Change block and the Arab parties have a clear majority of 67 seats, giving them a lot of power, if they choose to use it.
The main question running through my head and I believe the head of most Israelis who were sure that Netanyahu would be toppled by this election, is how is it possible that after the disaster of October 7th, and the 3 years of failed government, war, corruption, death, and mourning, Netanyahu emerges from this election head of the largest party (and not by a small number)? Of course, the common wisdom says that even though many Israelis blame Netanyahu for the failure to protect Israelis from the Hamas attack on October 7th, the failure of the response to that attack, as well as many other failures in government since then, they still cannot imagine anyone else as Prime Minister. So, no matter what they told the pollsters for the past 3 years, when they were alone in the voting booth and it was time to cast their ballot, muscle memory kicked in and they placed Mahal (the symbol for Likud) in their envelope.
While I am sure this accounts for a great deal of the surprising win of the Likud, it is also worth looking at what happened to one of the Likud’s most loyal partners in the coalition government, Shas. Shas won 11 seats in the 2022 election with about 400,000 votes. In this week’s election, Shas suffered a massive loss and dropped to 6 seats. The 5-seat loss represents somewhere around 230,000 voters. Where did they go? They did not stay home since voter turnout was at a record high. The common explanation for the loss seems to be that the extreme stand Arye Deri and other Shas political leaders took on the draft law, opposing any compromise in the exemption from army service ultra-orthodox parties demand, did not sit well with a lot of traditional Shas voters. Unlike the Ashkenazi based United Torah Judaism party, Shas drew its support from both ultra-orthodox as well as non-orthodox Jews who identified with the Sephardi identity of the party. This population leans heavily right, generally serves in the Israeli army and did not support Shas leader’s stand on the draft law. I think we can safely assume that those voters did not suddenly switch camps to vote for the Democrats but simply voted for Likud. Had Shas managed to maintain its constituents, perhaps suffering only a smaller loss, Likud might still have come out on top, but perhaps with less of a significant lead over Eisenkot than the results of the election revealed. In the 2022 election, the Likud and Shas together had 43 seats. After New Hope merged with Likud in 2025, the Likud and Shas held 47 seats. After Tuesday’s election, the Likud and Shas held 33 seats, a massive 14 seat loss.
This is perhaps cold comfort for those like me who were hoping for a decisive victory for the Change block, but it is also worth noting that since Shas’s massive loss, we have not seen or heard from Arye Deri, Shas’s veteran leader and master politician. There are rumors that Deri’s is considering resigning which could cause additional waves in the Netanyahu block.
The other major earthquake in these elections was the phenomenal performance of the two Arab parties, who together increased their representation from the previous Knesset by 9 seats. They are a force to be reckoned with and in fact, completely block the possibility of Netanyahu forming his extreme rightwing government with the same coalition partners he has in the current government.
The election results were a mix of good news and bad news for both the Netanyahu block and the Change block making it very difficult to predict what happens next. Due to the large number of Arab party seats, a right-wing government is off the table (Ben Gvir is out), leaving three other options; a minority government led by Eisenkot and supported by the Arab parties from outside the government (though Mansour Abbas’s Ram party could conceivably join the government), a unity government led by Netanyahu and Eisenkot together, and new elections.
It seems clear that Netanyahu’s strategy will be to do what he can to ensure new elections. New elections will only improve Netanyahu’s position since the energy of the Change block, and the Arab parties will have been greatly diminished by the lack of success in removing Netanyahu this time around. It is hard to see a repeat in a few months of the largely Change block Israeli voters who flew in from all corners of the globe to vote, or the historic turnout to vote in the Arab communities and Netanyahu will be sure not to allow smaller parties on the right from wasting votes.
Due to the clear majority of the anti-Netanyahu block (the Change parties and the Arab parties together), the most likely scenario will be that President Herzog asks Eisenkot to try to form a government. If Eisenkot fails (after about 6 weeks) Netanyahu will be given the opportunity to try to form a government. Netanyahu will do everything he can to run out the clock and then Herzog will have to call for new elections. New elections could ultimately lead to the same extreme rightwing coalition forming the next government.
Therefore, it is imperative, possibly existential, that if Eisenkot is given the mandate by Herzog to form a government, he does not blow it. It would be my preference under the current circumstances to see a minority government including Ra’am and supported by the Arab Joint List from the outside. For this to happen, Gadi Eisenkot and the leaders of the other Change block parties must come together, think creatively and act bravely. They must be willing to take political risks and put the country and the people of Israel first as Lapid did in 2021, by enabling Bennet to become Prime Minister. This is a time for leadership not politics.
Mansour Abbas, the head of the Islamic Arab Ra’am party has taken an important step towards the Change block by declaring that Gadi Eisenkot’s conditions for partnership will not be an obstacle to forming a government. Eisenkot stated that his conditions for any partner in a Change block coalition are:
- Recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.
- Acceptance of the values expressed in Israel’s Declaration of Independence.
- Acceptance of mandatory military or national service
- Recognition and denouncement of Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be destroyed.
Prior to the elections Mansour Abbas had met the first three of Eisenkot’s conditions and had given an unequivocable denouncement of the Hamas attacks on Israelis on October 7th. He has, however not denounced Hamas itself as a terrorist organization which must be destroyed. His reasons are both a political concern that he will lose support among some of his constituents if he comes out too strongly against Hamas and he will put his own life and his family’s lives in danger from Hamas. For a deeper understanding of Mansour Abbas’s stands, it is worth listening to the Yonit Levi and Jonathan Freedland’s interview of Abbas on the “Unholy” podcast from September 29th. The fact that Abbas is now saying that Eisenkot’s conditions will not prevent the establishment of a Change government hints that this last condition can be negotiated.
Yair Golan, from the Democrats, has already met Abbas and is working to find a formula to establish a Change government. Lieberman has stated clearly that he will not join a government dependent on Arab party support, nor will he sit with the ultra-orthodox, nor will he sit with Netanyahu and yet he has hinted that his principles could be swayed given the right incentive. It is also worth noting that United Torah Judaism has declared that it is not in Netanyahu’s pocket and is ready to talk to Eisenkot. Arye Deri, the leader of Shas, has been uncharacteristically absent from the political discourse following the unprecedented losses to his party, due to political miscalculation and the Likud’s vote draining power play, leading me to wonder if there is an opportunity there for the center left.
This will be a complicated negotiation with a high probability of failure. If Eisenkot and the Change block fail to establish a coalition government, the next option will be a unity government. Netanyahu has no real interest in a unity government. As I stated above, his best option is for new elections in a few months. Therefore, it will take great skill to establish a unity government in which the part of the public that wants change does not feel cheated. I could live with Netanyahu remaining Prime Minister in some rotational agreement with Eisenkot which will also include a pardon for Netanyahu and probably, a transition to President of Israel when Herzog’s term is up in two years. The conditions for a unity government in which I would not feel cheated would be a non-political commission of inquiry into October 7th and everything that led to the catastrophe as well as government actions which followed, real sanctions for ultra-orthodox draft dodgers, an end to the legal overhaul, and a commitment to the Trump 20 Point Peace Plan. Those are very big asks and so I am not holding my breath. I voted for change, the majority voted against Netanyahu, I hope the leaders of the Change block can rise to the occasion.
