When Did They Realize?

“When Did They Realize They Were Living Through World War II?”

We Stand on the Eve of Israel’s Retaliation to Iran’s Retaliation to Israel’s, as the Cycle Builds to What Feels Like an Inevitable Turning Point

It’s the day after Simchat Torah, exactly one year and one day—according to the Jewish calendar—since this war began. With two regional powers facing off, the world is teetering on edge. Except, perhaps, in the U.S., where the spotlight remains on the presidential election just weeks away.

This confrontation could be big. Or, like previous rounds, it could end up as much noise with minimal fallout. But this time feels different. There’s real potential here for escalation into something much larger—a full regional war. Iran has already threatened to strike Sunni Arab states if Israel targets its oil fields. And it’s somewhat surreal to write about this so casually, yet that’s the world we’re in. A year ago, any one of these events would have dominated global headlines for weeks. Today, they’ve become footnotes in a news cycle that moves faster than we can process.

Since Hamas’s devastating October 7 attack and Hezbollah’s tentative entrance into the fray the following day, it’s been a steady stream of high-stakes events. From the relentless rocket attacks that battered all of southern Israel and reached as far as the center, to New Year’s Eve, when Hamas launched one final anti-climactic barrage toward Tel Aviv at midnight—a strange, almost poetic moment marking the end of their long-range capabilities.

In Gaza, fighting has been brutal, but Hamas’s ability to strike long-range targets has largely been dismantled. Meanwhile, Hezbollah focused its efforts on northern Israel, and it became clear they were preparing their own version of October 7—a plan we now know they were indeed preparing, which led to the evacuation of many border areas.

Then there’s Iran, the orchestrator behind it all. Tensions reached a new level when Israel targeted a building near Iran’s consulate in Beirut, claiming it was hosting a meeting between Iranian and Hezbollah officials. The attack killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, head of the IRGC’s Quds Force and a critical figure in Iran-Hezbollah relations. That hit changed everything.

Since then, Iran launched the largest drone assault in history against Israel, largely shot down by a coalition of Israel, the U.S., and Arab allies. Israel responded by allegedly assassinating Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran and mounting a full assault on Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Iran retaliated once again, this time with ballistic missiles, scoring more significant hits on Israel. Which brings us to today. Israel is ready to retaliate.

Here in Israel, everyone knows it’s coming. The mood varies—some are indifferent, desensitized after a year of unending conflict. The younger generation barely flinches at “breaking news” and “immediate threats.” But there’s also tension, a shift from previous threats when Hezbollah threatened to launch 200,000 rockets at Israel. Back then, people stocked up on essentials and readied bomb shelters. It’s different now. There’s a quiet readiness instead.

On the Edge of World War?

It already feels as though we’re standing on the edge of a world war. This isn’t just about Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon anymore. Iran, Houthi rebels, Ukraine-Russia, Europe, the U.S., and even the Koreas are drawn into opposing sides. We’re seeing what Niall Ferguson terms “Cold War II” edging closer to an open global conflict. All that’s missing is China seizing the moment to make a move on Taiwan—an unsettling but increasingly plausible prospect in these times.

Indeed, these are the most interesting—and precarious—of times. We’re living through moments that will be studied for decades to come, as we watch history unfold before our eyes.