Daniel Ben Abraham
The opposite of war is nuance

Why Iran Can’t War

Why Iran Can’t War – Iran’s difficulty waging war in metaphysical context 

What’s more powerful, a bomb, or the ability to turn the world from anti-Israel to anti-Iran in one day?

You may have noticed a complete 180-degree change in the war since the killing of Iranian General and Quds Force Commander Reza Zahedi on April 1, 2024. 

The ongoing war went, in one day, from virtually the whole world united against Israel, from U.N. action and talk of increasing arms embargoes, to after Zahedi’s removal, our Arab allies, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others, working with the United States and European countries to unprecedented cooperation defending Israel against a common enemy, Iran.

If only Israel understood how to redraw such conflict lines intentionally. Such futuristic strategy would be a new level understanding of both warfare and peace-building, able to change the landscape of all wars to come. It just so happens to be the subject of a new theory on conflict reorganization strategy and resolution strategy I am developing called PeaceMatrix™ Entitativity theory, but I digress.

But this move is more than Israel merely showing its capacity to deliver justice for October 7th which Zahedi allegedly was responsible for, and prevent future attacks. The world went from calling for cease-fires and arms restrictions on Israel, including even the United States allowing a U.N. Security Council Resolution calling for an “immediate ceasefire” on March 25th, to an entirely different landscape in this conflict. After 35 years of fighting Hamas, Israel has hit a nerve untouched since its removal of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, which reportedly even Netanyahu backed out of at the last minute allowing Trump to handle alone. 

Now, Iran threatens Israel, if she should retaliate to Iran’s retaliation of 300 missiles and drones fired this past Shabbat. And of course, Israel should. Why?

  • With all of Iran’s size, its size is its own disadvantage. Iran is required to expend great time and resources moving any troops and military assets thousands of miles in its own territory, let alone to reach Israel. Israel can take advantage of this and continually force Iran to move its resources around.
  • Iran appeared incredibly weak, with half of its projectiles not even reaching Israel from their own failures. 
  • Iran’s entire economy is based on energy production and transportation, and is extremely vulnerable to even unsophisticated attack and sabotage. 
  • Russia needs Iran to help Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, as Iran has been supplying Russia with drones and other resources, and as a key member of BRICS international economic cooperative. But a growing conflict in the Middle East turns Iran from an asset of Russia to a liability. All those nations siding with Russia that are opposed to Iran’s nuclearization could be re-aligned in the new polarization that would result from increased tensions involving Iran, harming Russia’s access to military assets, and its ability to circumvent global sanctions. Putin called for restraint to avoid a catastrophic clash in this matter. 
  • China, which already tiptoes through foreign policy as though blindfolded across an icy road with great uncertainty of its correct path, stands to ostracize more nations by supporting yet another nation waging yet another escalating war, with its economic if not military support of Iran. China, which has threatened yet even another action of its own regarding Taiwan uniting South Asian countries in opposition, likewise called for restraint.   
  • Not to mention, ISIS-K and its agents spread across Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, who have carried out attacks at Solemani’s memorial service inside Iran, as well as the terrorist attack at a theater in Moscow, and may look to take advantage of greater instability.  

Law professor Alan Dershowitz wrote an article appearing in the New York Sun about how Israel had a moral and legal right and responsibility to stop Iran’s nuclear program, and how this escalating series of attacks may provide a golden opportunity (paraphrasing).

Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear program in response to Iran’s attack would make Iran’s attack last week appear foolish, encouraging even more of the Iranian regime’s supporters to abandon it.

So now, Iran is caught in a catch-22. To fail to answer Israel’s escalating responses, whether against nuclear facilities or elsewhere, grows discontent with its Mullahs, whose entire ideological political infrastructure (not to mention its alliance with its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas) is based on hatred of Israel. Yet, continuing the reciprocating escalations weakens Iran’s leadership both vis-a-vis its own internal ideological counterforces, and its key international support in Russia and China which underlies the entire Gaza conflict.  

As I’ve written elsewhere, war and peace are ultimately not about how many bombs you drop on low-level henchmen or even leaders, but understanding and guiding the ideologies behind them.

Maybe Israel is now finally playing chess.

About the Author
Daniel was born in Budapest, Hungary, to the grandchildren of Holocaust survivors, and grew up in New York City. Daniel obtained his Bachelor's degree from Penn State University, has a Juris Doctorate with a specialization in public international law. He is the author of several books and articles, including The PeaceMatrix™, about a theoretical new system for solving all human conflicts. Daniel's approaches to the challenges of anti-Semitism, terrorism, and Israeli and international peace and security combine understandings of psychology, philosophy, law, Judaism and spirituality, and metaphysics.
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