Why Iran Won’t Surrender Easily—and What Comes Next

Trump’s Strike on Iran Signals a Turning Point—but Real Change Must Come From Within

In the early morning hours, U.S. President Donald Trump made history by ordering a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities—the most significant American action against Tehran in years. For much of the Middle East, particularly in Israel and across Sunni Arab states, it marked a long-anticipated shift in U.S. policy.

A Break from the Past

The strike stood in sharp contrast to the cautious approach of the Obama and Biden administrations, which prioritized diplomacy over deterrence. Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal ignored Iran’s ballistic missile development and regional destabilization, ultimately emboldening Tehran and its proxies. Biden’s later efforts to revive the agreement only deepened mistrust among U.S. allies while signaling weakness to Iran.

Trump’s decision broke that pattern. Despite domestic pressure and Iranian threats, he stood firm, signaling that American retreat was no longer the default.

Tehran Holds Its Line

The confrontation, however, is far from over. Tehran continues to threaten U.S. forces in the Gulf and allude to closing the Strait of Hormuz—moves that would damage its own economy and provoke a harsher American response.

Still, Iran shows no sign of backing down. It is led by its most ideologically rigid leadership since 1979, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—bolstered by the IRGC—entrenched and unwilling to compromise.

As long as Khamenei remains in power, a shift in policy is unlikely. The burden now falls on the U.S. and Israel to keep weakening the regime, whether overtly or covertly.

Airstrikes Can’t Change Regimes

Despite its air dominance and intelligence capabilities, the West faces a core limitation: it cannot put troops on the ground in Tehran. Missiles may delay a nuclear program, but they cannot dismantle an ideology. Lasting change must come from within. Only the Iranian people—exhausted by repression, isolation, and economic decline—can challenge the regime’s grip. Until that moment arrives, the West can do little more than hold the line.