Why Iran’s Influence in the Middle East is Unraveling

The Middle East is undergoing a seismic transformation, disrupting decades-old power dynamics and leaving regional hegemonies scrambling for footing. Amidst this upheaval, Israel stands at a pivotal juncture, uniquely positioned to capitalize on a cascade of indirect factors that have weakened its adversaries. Nowhere is this shift more apparent than in the ripple effects of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s recent ousting, an event that not only marked the end of six decades of brutal dictatorship but also dealt a blow to Iran’s regional ambitions.

For years, Syria served as the linchpin of Iran’s axis of resistance through its critical supply route for arming Hezbollah in Lebanon and a buffer zone protecting Tehran’s interests from external threats. Assad’s regime provided Iran with an important supply route for the transfer of advanced weaponry and personnel to its proxy forces, cementing Hezbollah’s role as a frontline threat against Israel. But the collapse of Assad’s regime has severed this lifeline, leaving Hezbollah’s logistical capabilities severely impaired.

The implications are profound: a destabilized Hezbollah no longer poses the same level of existential threat to Israel’s northern border, and Iran’s broader regional strategy is in disarray.

The vacuum left by Syria’s collapse has given the IDF new opportunities. Israel has intensified airstrikes on Iranian targets, exploiting Syria’s fractured air defenses and achieving near-total air superiority. These strikes have destroyed most of the Assad regime’s aerial defense infrastructure, signaling Israel’s increasing readiness to counter Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. With Syria no longer serving as a shield, Israeli officials have openly hinted at their growing ability to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Not surprisingly, the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has hurt Iran. With Hezbollah temporarily subdued and its operations disrupted, Iran has lost its crown jewel proxy in its campaign to pressure Israel’s northern border. This shift has allowed Israel to redirect its military focus toward finishing off Hamas in Gaza and potentially dismantling the Houthis in Yemen. By systematically weakening these remaining fronts, Israel is diminishing Iran’s ability to project power in the Middle East and curbing its capacity for future aggression.

At the same time, Iran’s interests are colliding with shifting geopolitical realities. Turkey’s expanding military footprint in northern Syria and Iraq has placed significant pressure on Iran-backed militias, whose operational freedom is now constrained by Turkish-backed forces. Tehran’s supply lines and proxy networks, once unchallenged, are faltering under this competition. 

Simultaneously, Iran’s reliance on Russia as a strategic partner has become a liability. With Moscow bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has withdrawn critical military assets from Syria, including advanced air defense systems, leaving Iranian positions increasingly exposed to Israeli strikes. Reports of Russian forces ceding control of key Syrian air bases to Iranian proxies have only amplified their vulnerability, as these positions have become prime targets for Israel.

This, however, is only part of the story. The broader erosion of Iran’s geopolitical influence stems from a perfect storm of indirect factors converging to undermine its ambitions. The Abraham Accords, for example, have reshaped alliances in the Middle East, leaving Iran increasingly isolated. The normalization of diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Gulf states like the UAE and Bahrain has created an emergent strategic bloc—one that shares intelligence, strengthens collective defense capabilities, and presents a united front against Tehran’s aggression.

Iran’s economy, suffocating under the weight of crippling US sanctions and decades of internal mismanagement, has descended into a state of chronic dysfunction. Spiraling inflation, soaring unemployment, and widespread poverty have ignited waves of domestic unrest, with protests erupting over everything from fuel price hikes to water shortages and endemic corruption. These fissures have forced Tehran into an uncomfortable reality: the regime’s survival now hinges on quelling internal dissent rather than financing its external ambitions.

The cost of maintaining domestic stability has diverted critical resources away from Iran’s proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and the Houthis—weakening its ability to project power across the region. 

Together, these developments have deepened Iran’s weaknesses. Its proxies are constrained, its networks disrupted, and its dependence on external powers is proving fragile. Against this backdrop, Israel finds itself in a position of unprecedented advantage, poised to exploit Tehran’s mounting vulnerabilities while consolidating its own security in a rapidly shifting Middle East.